Winter Forecasting Tips By Rick Garuckas and Andrew Calvi

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Presentation transcript:

Winter Forecasting Tips By Rick Garuckas and Andrew Calvi BFB Winter Forecasting Tips By Rick Garuckas and Andrew Calvi

Getting Started Climatology. Current conditions, current conditions, current conditions. a) visible or infrared satellite. b) surface observations. c) national radar and regional radar.

Model Guidance First look at global models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC). Next look at grid point models (NAM, WRF, HRRR). Statistical models (MOS). Know each model’s strengths and weaknesses. Think of a forecast strategy. In other words what parameters to look at and why.

Interpreting the Guidance Start with 300 mb winds and look for specific features, I.E. jet streaks. Next plot 500 mb heights, winds, and vorticity, and look for digging or negatively tilted troughs and wind maxes. Examine 700 mb temps and RH. Study 850 mb winds, temps and RH. Interpret 1000 mb MSLP, 6 hr precip, and look for fairly deep areas of low pressure. Pull up model 2 meter temps and dew points. Look at model 10 meter winds. Examine QPF and compare with model snowfall projections.

Interpreting the Guidance (continued) MOS (model output statistics) a) gives raw model forecasts of highs and lows b) not reliable in the transition seasons or cloudy weather

Comparing Models Check to see if each model is on pace with what is currently happening (compare with radar and surface maps). Compare the speed in which each model is moving weather systems (fronts, lows, highs). Be aware of model biases (NAM tends to overdue QPF, GFS can track strong winter storms too far east).

Time Management If there is active weather going on, be sure to allow more time to forecast. Look at as much relevant data as possible. Prioritize: If there is a coastal storm or lake effect snow affecting an area, put more emphasis on timing of precip instead of temps.

Patience, Patience, Patience! Keep in mind that no forecast is 100% accurate. It takes careful studying of each product in previous slides to make a good forecast. The more experience you gain, the faster you’ll be able to plot and interpret data. Plan between 1 and 2 hours to forecast.

The Websites and Programs!!! For Climatology: 1) www.weather.gov 2) www.wunderground.com For Current Conditions: 1) weather.rap.ucar.edu 2) weather.gov For model guidance: www.accuweather.com (accuweatherpro) http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html (ewall) Garp BUFKIT http://justin.wiscwx.com/ Radar: 1) www.weather.gov 2) www.weathertap.com