Department of Learning and Philosophy Aalborg University, Copenhagen NERA 45th Congress of the Nordic Educational Research Association (NERA) March 2017 The hidden global and local dynamics of the expansion of higher education Jón Torfi Jónasson, School of Education, University of Iceland jtj@hi.is

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 The argument The data presented, shows an exponential growth within HE with saturation. It is argued that this suggests the theoretical account. A credentially driven process. The credential effect can be shown to extend for well over a century, it is ubiquitous and is robustly different for females and males during all this time. A credential account involves the students as key actors, being in an important way responsible for the expansion of higher education. This view is supported by looking at the differential growth pattern for males and females, which in turn suggests a novel interpretation of the gender gap in the enrollment figures in higher education. Technical issues: The pattern shown, underpins a credential account, but the technical underpinning is not presented here. Exponential growth cannot go on forever! Thus a saturation plateau must be introduced. The paper demonstrates the ubiquity of the expansion. It is not confined to the developed countries. Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

The thesis The Hidden Dynamics of the Expansion of Higher Education I thus argue that there is an underlying dynamic mechanism involved in the expansion of Higher Education, which operates similarly in, and also within, many national systems. It is hidden in the sense that it needs to be demonstrated or pointed out The flow of the argument: First, we note that there is an ongoing expansion. Second we note that we can demonstrate a particular characteristic, i.e. show how well an exponential curve can be fitted. Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 Expansion on a global scale - Based Schofer and Meyer 2005 Fast growth Slow growth Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 An alternative description of the data – an exponential fit Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 An alternative description of the data – an exponential fit Expansion rate = 0.0415 or approx. 4.2% Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

The argument – the storyline HE has expanded quite noticeably in most education systems It is argued here that the expansion of education is usefully described as exponential expansion. It transpires that the expansion is both ubiquitous and robust. A credential account. It is suggested that a credential account fits the stability in the expansion well. It presents a dynamic account where the credentials provide a dynamic diffusion power that seems to operate both for the system as a whole but also within different social groups. The diffusion mechanisms seem to be in an important sense bound to groups. When applied to gender, the story reveals a new interpretation of the gender gap. Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 Notice In this graph we have not introduced saturation The “new” Gender Gap? The “old” Gender Gap? Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

The next decades males versus females Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 Expansion of HE and Gender First developed – then developing (UNESCO definitions) Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 Expansion of HE and Gender First developed – then developing (UNESCO definitions) Where is the faster growth? Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Expansion of HE and Gender Developed Developing Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Expansion of HE and Gender Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Expansion of HE and Gender Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Expansion of HE and Gender The Nordic countries Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

What about advanced programmes? Data from ethnic groups in the US Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 Age groups Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 Institutions Institutional difference The expansion of education within types of education How do the above patterns apply to different levels of HE? The data for different institutions will throw light on a suggestion that a strong force pushing the colleges towards universities may be largely due to the students voting with their feet. They want vocational or professional degrees, but only provided that their status is high enough. So if the status differential is too high (as they perceive it) they prefer the university even if they would prefer the professional degree. The only response to this is to enhance the status of the institutions giving the professional degrees. Here the reference is to implicit mechanisms that can only be discerned if one looks at trends over very long times. Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

The argument – the storyline It is argued here that the expansion of education is usefully described as exponential expansion. It transpires that the expansion is both ubiquitous and robust When applied to gender, the story reveals a new interpretation of the gender gap We see the differences between social (ethnic) groups and age groups in a new light A credential account. It is suggested that a credential account fits the stability in the expansion well. It presents a dynamic account where the credentials provide a dynamic diffusion power that seems to operate both for the system as a whole but also within different social groups. The diffusion mechanisms seem to be in an important sense bound to groups. Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

The main storylines are these: HE education expands as it were a consumable product; the more people that have obtained the credentials, the more people want them. (For various reasons: money, status, security …) There is a saturation mechanism involved but it is slow to operate as the expansion gradually extends to all age groups, and thus there are many who react rather late in life. When we claim that the credential force is the most important factor it does not imply that there are no other factors nor that students don’t value and cherish their studies. Most probably do – to some extent. But these other factors are not crucial, and if it were not for the credential moulding characteristic HE would look very different. Thus in order to understand the core of HE we must understand the ingredients of the credential attraction. Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 Thank you Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017 The data The sources Various official sources, notably the UNESCO, the US and the Japanese ministerial agencies, the Nordic official agencies and the OECD data bases. Manipulation of data The absolute numbers are modulated by cohort sizes when obtained directly We also use GER (Gross enrollment ratio), where the absolute numbers are modulated by the cohorts who typically would attend the institutions in question. We calculate exponential slopes by using the ln of the curves or by using the best fit function in excel. We use an algorithm to calculate the saturation logistic curve (S- curve), selecting an asymptote, somewhat arbitrarily. The variables Enrolment in HE (using each countries definition) Graduation from different levels of HE. Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017

The US gendered development Jón Torfi Jónasson NERA Copenhagen 2017