Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

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Presentation transcript:

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources University of Utah Hydroinformatics - Fall 2015

Module Overview Goal: Analyze climate impacts on hydrologic response and water system reliability in SLC Activities: Climate Data: CMIP5 Databases: MySQL and TOAD Change factor module in R WEAP hydrologic modeling WEAP water management modeling Automation and Analysis using WEAP

Learning Objectives Describe global climate change modeling and downscaling Access CMIP5 data archive Create a local database and generate SQL script with TOAD Write a statistical downscaling method, change factor approach, in R Generate future precipitation based on climate change models

Climate Change Mean-Annual precipitation change, percent CMPI3, 1970-1999 to 2040-2069, 50%tile BCCA CMIP3 Daily Climate Analysis example - Calendar-day, ensemble-mean change in 20-year diurnal temperature range

Why Climate Change is important for water managers?

General Circulation Models Numerical models representing physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface Most advanced tools currently available Three dimensional grid Their resolution is quite coarse to evaluate the impact on water resources www.cccsn.ec.gc.ca

Downscaling (Change Factor Approach) www.engr.scu.edu

Impact Assessment Andy Wood (2015)

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) Archive of fine spatial resolution of climate projections over US. Updated archive, May 2013: 234 projections of monthly data 134 projections of daily data Resolution: 1/8° latitude-longitude (~12km by 12 km) Time Coverage: 1950-2099 Variables: precipitation maximum temperature minimum temperature http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org

Accessing climate projection data http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/

Toad for MySQL A freeware development tool for the management of a MySQL database. Rapidly create and execute queries, automate database object management, and develop SQL code more efficiently. Provides utilities to compare, extract, and search for objects; manage projects; import/export data; and administer the database. Dramatically increases productivity and provides access to an active user community.

Toad helps in Quickly create and execute queries Automate database object management Develop SQL code more efficiently Compare, extract, and search for objects Manage projects Import/export data Administer databases Increase productivity Access an active user community

Next session Create a hydrologic model and water supply system model in WEAP Download and install WEAP before the class Homework #9: Complete the Change Factor approach code in R. At the end will present graphs to compare the change factors for two stations (Parleys and Airport), three time slices of 2010-39, 2040-69, and 2070-99, and four emission scenarios.