An emerging cure for the plague of strategic planning Steven E. Wallis, Ph.D. Executive Coordinator, ASK MATT Solutions Fulbright Specialist Faculty, Capella University American Water Works Association (AWWA) Fall Conference: Water in the Wild West – Innovation and Resiliency Reno, Nevada, October 24, 2017 Steve@ASKMATT.Solutions

All the problems with strategic planning Post Strategic Planning Traumatic Stress Disorder (PSPTSD) Symptoms: Ignoring the plan Avoiding planning processes Hiding the plan in a drawer Using the plan as a dust-catcher Using last year’s plan Share your horror stories We can solve all our problems with good plans

META-PROBLEM: WHY do plans fail? Lack of information? Lack of participation? Lack of funding? Lack of trust? NO – we are simply bad at creating plans that are good

OUR PLANS = OUR LIMITS 20%? No Ability to Objectively Evaluate Humanities Research in Europe (Dolan, 2008) Failure of economics to predict crisis (FESSUD: Financialisation, Economy, Society, and sustainable Development) Failure of Theory (Burrell, 1997; Shotter, 1994) Failure of TQM (MacIntosh & MacLean, 1999), BPR (Dekkers, 2008), Culture Change (Smith, 2003) Failure of theories of bureaucracy (Bernier & Hafsi, 2007) Failure of Business Schools to Instill Ethics (Ghoshal, 2005; Shareef, 2007) Failure of Policy (Wallis, 2011) - e.g., the “war on drugs” (Baum, 1996) Laws are made poorly (Schrunk, 2005)

A VERY Brief History of Approaches to Strategic Planning Intuition Data Collaboration Systems Thinking Mapping Each has benefits… and also serious limitations

We Live in a World of Systems What is a system??

All Systems Provide Benefits Because They Are Systemic In a system, there is little or no hierarchy – all parts are needed. It is all about CONNECTIONS. If you remove a CONNECTION, the system will stop. Water Cycle with no evaporation? No precipitation? No input of energy??

What if we connected the strengths? Research into successful decision making Research into the structure of knowledge Breakthrough – measuring “usefulness of knowledge” not “quantity of data” Understanding plans as “systems of concepts” we can now objectively compare and improve plans

Our “maps” are systemic Disconnected = Data Connected = Knowledge Reno, Sparks Roads, Highways Rivers, Hills, Mountains Casinos, hotels, resturants Your phone book will not help!

Typical CKM after a few minutes

Basic Rules for Causal Knowledge Mapping Service Interruption Concepts should be measureable Connections must be causal Strive for two inputs to each concept Bigger is better Cost of Water Delivered Employee Teamwork Consumer Satisfaction Operational Efficiency

Facilitation Tips D H A E C B G F Increase Score: 1 – More concepts 2 – more connections 3 – More loops Follow-up Game H Research key debates for extra credit A How might you close a loop? Explore “white spaces” E “Drill Down” to create new map for individual departments Can similar POIs be combined? C B G F Discuss “Leverage Points” How is that measured? Is the connection really valid? Where might we find empirical support?

Measuring the map D BREADTH= 8 DEPTH = 0.25 H A C C B G F

Objective Evaluation Quadrant #3 Many very large firms are here May have medium term success Difficult to gather and interpret data More difficult to coordinate   Quadrant #4 Few firms are here Long term success Few unanticipated consequences Easier to coordinate, & adapt Low Breadth High Quadrant #2 Many utilities & commodities are here Narrow focus, some large surprises Easier to coordinate, difficult to adapt Quadrant #1 Most firms are here May have short term success Many unanticipated consequences Typical strategic plans are here Low Depth High

Thank You! Using CKM you can Plan faster – (4-90 minute sessions) Process is engaging, not frustrating Create actionable plans Collaborative creation process Excellent for collaboration within and between organizations Build transparency and trust – because everyone can see the map Identify options and tradeoffs Find “Leverage Points” and “Loops” for sustainable results DOUBLE your ability to understand situations and reach goals Thank You!

Extra Slides

Structural Meta-Map Here is where we want our students to be Theories/ “laws” of physics and engineering Here is where we want our students to be Most mental models are here Prophecies of Nostradamus, Trivia games, etc…

Without structure, we loose reasoning ability False Focus on “data” KEY: Data is not enough. Without structure, we loose reasoning ability

Key Assumption If we live in a world of systems that world would be best understood when our knowledge is more structured

Empirical Base Research Streams Philosophical Base Transformative structures support good empirical research (results are more reliable with more independent variables). Philosophical Base Dual description Dialectic Multiple variables Partial Cause More A More C More B Research Streams Integrative Complexity Propositional Analysis

Correspondence? Coherence? (Müller, 2012; Umpleby, 2010) Science One Science Two Availability Environmental impact Style Price Happy spouse Color

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