Integrating biological components into a spatially explicit, complex economic model for fisheries management evaluations: The North Sea saithe fishery.

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Presentation transcript:

Integrating biological components into a spatially explicit, complex economic model for fisheries management evaluations: The North Sea saithe fishery as a case study Sarah Simons, Alexander Kempf, Ralf Döring, Heleen Bartelings, Katell Hamon, Axel Temming ICES ASC 2015 Session M:05 Copenhagen, 22nd Sept. 2015

Fisheries management failures Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary Page 2 ICES ASC 2015 M:05 Disputation Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung

What can we do? Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary Improving methods and tools that are used to evaluate management strategies How, when and where do people fish? What is the economic impact of management measures on fishers? How much of their income will be affected and what alternatives could be offered? In the face of management contraints what are the strategies fishers develop? Do they fit the management objective? What spatio-temporal interplay exists between fleet and fish stocks? Page 3 ICES ASC 2015 M:05 Disputation Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung

Integrating age-structured population dynamics into FishRent Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary Model development Integrating age-structured population dynamics into FishRent Considering the spatio-temporal interplay between fleets and fish stocks Model application Identifying major drivers and their impact Evaluating current and alternative management strategies ICES ASC 2015 M:05 Disputation Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung

The basic version of FishRent Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary Fuel price Capital Cost Fixed Cost Fuel Cost Crew Cost Variable Cost Effort allocation Profit maximization Biomass Cobb-Douglas Catch Catch Revenue Fleet size Stock biomass Fish Price Landings Discards Fishing effort Disputation Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) Disputation ICES ASC 2015 M:05 (Salz et al., 2011) 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung

Step 1: Integrating a dynamic population model Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary Step 1: Integrating a dynamic population model Fuel price Capital Cost Fixed Cost Fuel Cost Crew Cost Variable Cost Change of effort allocation pattern Profit maximization Cobb-Douglas Biomass production function Population model Catch Revenue Fleet size Fish Price Landings Discards ICES ASC 2015 M:05 Disputation Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) (Simons et al., 2014a) 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung

Step 2: Integrating the spatio-temporal component Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary Seasonal migrations Q 1 Q 2 Quarter 4 Quarter 3 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Q 3 Q 4 XXII EAFE CONFERENCE Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) ICES ASC 2015 M:05 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung (Simons et al., 2014a)

North Sea Saithe Fishery Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary SSB has declined below Bpa Recruitment is below average Mean weight-at-age is reduced Decline in stock productivity ICES Advice 2014 ICES ASC 2015 M:05 Disputation Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) 22.09.2014

The spatio-temporal interplay between fleet and stock Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary CPUEs reflect not just fish abundance they also depend on steaming costs ICES ASC 2015 M:05 ICES ASC 2015 M:07 Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) (Simons et al., 2014b) 22.09.2014

The impact of a discard ban Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary TAC saithe is 3x higher than TAC cod Source: ICES advice 2014 Spatial overlap of high cod and saithe stock biomass (Simons et al., 2014) XXII EAFE CONFERENCE Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) ICES ASC 2015 M:05 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung

The impact of a discard ban Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary Benefical for cod but negative for saithe Cod Saithe Spatial overlap cod-saithe 8% 41% 6% 4% Economic cosequences depend on cod quota availability Disputation Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) ICES ASC 2015 M:05 ICES ASC 2015 M:07 (Simons et al., 2014c) 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung

In summary… Extension of the biological part of FishRent Introduction Model development Model application Results & Discussion Summary Extension of the biological part of FishRent Same indicators as ICES Includes fishers behaviour Economic performance of multiple fleet segments Multi-species effects of landing obligation Species distribution in stock assessment & quota advice CPUEs also depend on steaming costs Inclusion of economic variables in stock assessment ICES ASC 2015 M:05 Disputation Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung

Many thanks to … ICES ASC 2015 M:05 XXII EAFE CONFERENCE Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) 22.09.2014

Thanks for your attention ! ICES ASC 2015 M:05 XXII EAFE CONFERENCE Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) 22.09.2014

References ICES 2014. Report of the Working Group on Mixed Fisheries Advice for the North Sea (WGMIXFISH-NS). Book 6. ICES Document, CM 2014/ACOM:22. Salz, P., Buisman, E., Frost, H., Accadia, P., Prellezo, R., and Soma, K. 2011. Fishrent:bio-economic simulation and optimization model for fisheries. LEI Report, 2011: 024. Simons, S. L., Bartelings, H., Hamon, K. G., Kempf, A. J., Döring, R., and Temming, A. 2014a. Integrating stochastic age-structured population dynamics into complex fisheries economic models for management evaluations: the North Sea saithe fishery as a case study. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, 71: 1638-1652. Simons, S. L., Döring, R., and Temming, A. 2014b. Modelling the spatio-temporal interplay between North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) and multiple fleet segments for management evaluation. Aquatic Living Resources, 27: 1-16. Simons, S. L., Döring, R., and Temming, A. 2014c. Modelling fisher's response to discard prevention strategies: the case of the North Sea saithe fishery. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil. Simons, S. L., Döring, R., and Temming, A. 2015. Combining area closures with catch regulations in fisheries with spatio-temporal variation: Bio-economic implications for the North Sea saithe fishery. Marine Policy, 51: 281-292. ICES ASC 2015 M:05 Disputation Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de) 22.09.2014 Titel der Veranstaltung