Working Memory & Self Control Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 12/05/2017: Lecture 11-1 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create the slides. The macros aren’t needed to view the slides. You can disable or delete the macros without any change to the presentation.

Lecture probably ends here Outline Working memory and self control Classroom experiment plus a little bit of theory. Psychological Traps Lecture probably ends here Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Example of the Experimental Task

Example of the Experimental Task Two-Stage Task You will be given a number to keep in memory. You will be asked for this number later. You will be given a choice. Make the choice. You will be asked to state the number that you were given at Stage 1. Next: You will be given a number to keep in memory. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Number to Keep in Memory

Remember This Sequence of Digits 7 - 3 - 4 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Choice Task

Choice Task Which do you like better: A. Playing in the snow (assuming that snow is good snow) B. Spending the day at the beach (assuming that the day is warm and sunny) Write down your answer, A or B. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 What is the Number?

What is the Number? What is the number that you were asked to keep in memory at Stage 1? 7 - 3 - 4 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Main Experiment

Main Experimental Task Two-Stage Task (same as before) You will be given a number to keep in memory. You will be asked for this number later. You will be given a choice. Make the choice. You will be asked to state the number that you were given at Stage 1. Next: You will be given a number to keep in memory. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Number to Keep in Memory

Remember This Sequence of Digits 1 - 2 - 2 - 8 - 9 - 3 - 6 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Choice Task

Which do you like better: A. A piece of fruit (some grapes) Choice Task Which do you like better: A. A piece of fruit (some grapes) B. Some chocolate candy Reminder to JM: Serve the grapes and candy to the class. You are only allowed to have the grapes or the candy, not both. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 What is the Number?

1 - 2 - 2 - 8 - 9 - 3 - 6 What is the Number? What is the number that you were asked to keep in memory at Stage 1? 1 - 2 - 2 - 8 - 9 - 3 - 6 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Working Memory and Self-Regulation

Working Memory & Self Regulation Working Memory (WM) Retains small amounts of information (magic number 7 ± 2) Retains information for brief time periods (0 – 15 seconds) Active mental processing of information refreshes the contents of WM Retains information in different formats, e.g., linguistic representation, imagery representation, episodes Central Executive: Monitors & controls contents of WM. Regulates actions in cases of response conflict. Reflective or conscious decisions require active processing of information in WM. Control or inhibition of drives (hunger, thirst, sexual arousal) requires intervention of the central executive Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Shopping: Hungry/Not Hungry X List/No List

“Shopping for Food” Study While they were hungry, subjects were asked to write out a list of food items that they needed from the supermarket. Not-Hungry Subjects: Subjects were fed before shopping. Hungry Subjects: Subjects were not fed before shopping. List Subjects: Subjects went shopping with their written shopping list. No-List Subjects: Subjects left their list in the lab when they went shopping. Dependent variable = amount of food that the shoppers bought. "Shopping for Food" Study State While Shopping List No-List Hungry ----- Not Hungry Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Results of the "Shopping for Food" Study

Results of the “Shopping for Food” Study While they were hungry, subjects were asked to write out a list of food items that they needed from the supermarket. Not-Hungry Subjects: Subjects were fed before shopping. Hungry Subjects: Subjects were not fed before shopping. List Subjects: Subjects went shopping with their written shopping list. No-List Subjects: Subjects left their list in the lab. Interpretation: Current state of hunger reduces System II monitoring and adherence to shopping list. Having a list helps WM engage in self monitoring. Results of the "Shopping for Food" Study State While Shopping List No-List Hungry Buy list only Buy extra stuff Not Hungry Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Self Control & Working Memory

Self Control & Working Memory (WM) Hypothesis: WM (central executive) monitors current plans & goals. WM monitors adherence to these plans and goals. If a task places extra load on WM, then adherence to plans and goals will suffer. System II uses rules and reasoned strategies to make decisions. System II depends on WM activity. System I uses associative connections and automatic processes to make decisions. Visceral factors operate through System I. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Preoccupation Study – Mental Load & Self-Control

The Importance of Working Memory for Regulating Conflicts Between Visceral Desires & Cognitive Representations of Preference Go to the Radiolab discussion of Choice. (Need 9 minutes) The two main discussants are Barry Schwartz (psychologist at Swarthmore College) and Baba Shiv (professor of business at Stanford Business School) Download from: <http://www.radiolab.org/2008/nov/17/> On JM’s computer <D:\P466\resources\Schwartz.Shiv.Choice.radiolab111408.mp3>: Start at 4:15 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Outline of Baba Shiv's Study of Cognitive Resources & Self-Control

Outline of Preoccupation Study Shiv, B., Fedorikhin, A. (1999). Heart and mind in conflict: The interplay of affect and cognition in consumer decision making. Journal of Consumer Research, 26(3), 278-292. Subjects are even given a small number, e.g., 27, or a long number, e.g., 7370948, to hold in memory. They are told to go down the hall to tell the number to a researcher in another room. While walking down the hall, the subject is asked to make a choice. Subject is offered a choice between a slice of chocolate cake and a small cup of fruit salad. Who is more likely to choose chocolate cake, subjects who are retaining the short number or long number? Why? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Timing Outline of RadioLabs Discussion of "Choice"

Radiolab Discussion of Choice 4:15 Start of choice theory  Start 5:00 Start discussing short-term memory 6:00 Pause – briefly discuss working memory 6:12 Baba Shiv arrives – begins description of exp 7:05 Two conditions have been described: Small number versus big number 10:50 Choice experiment ends.  End Begin discussion of mental overload & regret 14:10 Oliver Sacks describes his eating choices – skip. 20:30 Bechara describes patient with decision pathology - skip 33:30 Start discussion of loss aversion 35:15 Definition of risk premium 36:20 Choice manipulations in an Atlantic City Casino 41:40 End of Atlantic City Casino 43:25 Gladwell on the “perils of introspection” (Wilson & Schooler) 49:43 Bargh’s priming experiment 55:05 End of Bargh’s priming experiment Timing of topics has changed (2017) because of ads. Fix timing. Display of Young Woman & Young Man Who Are Given a Choice Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Subjects told: Remember this number! 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, ...... Condition 1: Remember 1-2 Condition 2: Remember 1-2-2-8-9-3-6 Walk to a different room down the hall and tell them the number. 1-2-2-8-9-3-6, 1-2-2-8-9-3-6, 1-2-2-8-9-3-6, ...... Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Pictures of Cake & Fruit

Subject is interrupted in the hallway: Would You Like a Snack Subject is interrupted in the hallway: Would You Like a Snack? Please Choose. 2 digit: 1 - 2 7 digit: 1-2-2-8-9-3-6 ? A B Images of Conditions 1 & 2: Different Numbers to Remember Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Would You Like a Snack? Please Choose. 1-2-2-8-9-3-6, 1-2-2-8-9-3-6, 1-2-2-8-9-3-6, ...... 2 digit: 1 - 2 7 digit: 1-2-2-8-9-3-6 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, ...... Summary of Study Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Summary of Preoccupation Study Shiv, B., Fedorikhin, A. (1999). Heart and mind in conflict: The interplay of affect and cognition in consumer decision making. Journal of Consumer Research, 26(3), 278-292. Subjects are even given a small number, e.g., 27, or a long number, e.g., 7370948, to hold in memory. They are told to go down the hall to tell the number to a researcher in another room. While walking down the hall, the subject is asked to make a choice. Subject is offered a choice between a slice of chocolate cake and a small cup of fruit salad. Who is more likely to choose chocolate cake, subjects who are retaining the short number or long number? Why? Finding: Subjects who had to hold the long number in memory were more likely to choose the chocolate cake. Presumably they were less able to reflect on reasons for avoiding the fattening food. Less self control. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Role of Central Executive in Self-Regulation

Role of Central Executive for Self-Regulation Self-control depends on the functioning of the central executive. Stress, lack of sleep, multitasking, & brain injuries can all have negative effects on the operation of the central executive. Impaired central executive is associated with difficulty making good decisions. Factors that Increase Influence of Visceral Factors Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Factors that Increase Influence of Visceral Factors Any factors that reduce WM (central executive) monitoring of plans and goals, or inhibition of visceral influences. Stress, worry, fatigue, lack of sleep Distraction, e.g., noisy restaurant, noisy party Optional: Radio Labs – Choice Manipulation by Casino Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Summary Preferences are affected by cognitive factors like memory processes and access to personal policies. Peak-end model shows how our memories of experiences are simplified. Notice the similarity between this idea and the linear models of judgment. Also, notice similarity to availability heuristic. Visceral factors like sex drive and hunger modify our preferences. Monitoring processes can over-ride the visceral factors, but only if they are readily available (make a list; don’t be preoccupied; let working memory do its job). Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Review of Psychological Traps

"Psychological Traps" Heuristic strategies – habits of judgment, reasoning & decision making They are often useful & adaptive They sometimes result in biases and reasoning errors They are dangerous because they are invisible! Psychological Traps – engaging in heuristic reasoning without recognizing the potential for errors. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Anchoring Trap

Anchoring Trap Anchoring & adjustment – final estimates are too close to a biased or arbitrary initial estimate. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- What can you do about it? Consider different perspectives or starting points. Consider the decision on your own before talking to others. Avoid becoming anchored on someone else's point of view. Seek information from a variety of people. Be open-minded. Don't create anchors for other people when you discuss your decision. Prepare well before negotiating. Don't let others define the anchors in negotiations. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Status Quo Trap

The Status Quo Trap and the Sunk Costs Trap Samuelson, W., & Zeckhauser, R. (1988). Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 7–59. Status Quo Trap: Bias in favor of maintaining the status quo. Endowment effect & sunk cost reasoning create bias towards maintaining current holdings and current projects. Ambiguity aversion – changes to the status quo often introduce unfamiliar uncertainties. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sunk cost fallacy – to maintain current projects to justify past investments in them. (Very similar to status quo bias) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 How to Avoid Status Quo Trap

How to Avoid the Status Quo Trap and Sunk Costs Trap Remind yourself of your objectives – how well does the status quo serve your objectives? Never think of the status quo as your only alternative. Force yourself to imagine alternatives. Would you choose the status quo if it were not the status quo? Would you choose to invest more time and money into a project if you had not been involved in the past actions that created the status quo? Remember: The cards are stacked in favor of the status quo. Give innovative options a fair chance to compete with the status quo. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 The Confirming Evidence Trap

The Confirming Evidence Trap You are thinking of investing in a company that has recently announced a technological breakthrough. You decide that you should gather more information before investing. Which of these would be a wise strategy to follow? Arrange to talk to people who are enthusiastic about the future value of this company. Arrange to talk to people who are skeptical of the future value of this company. Do both (a) and (b). Confirmation bias: A tendency to seek information that confirms the truth of a hypothesis while failing to seek information that could cast doubt on the hypothesis. Example: The 2-4-6 task. Psych 466,, Miyamoto, Aut '17 The Framing Trap

The Framing Trap Framing: The same choice alternatives can look better or worse depending on how they are framed. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- What to do about it? Remind yourself of your fundamental objectives. Are you framing the decision in a way that advances these objectives? Don't focus only on gains or only on losses. Consider both gains and losses. Don't automatically accept an initial frame. Consider alternative frames. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 The Base-Rate Trap

The Overconfidence Trap Overconfidence - a tendency to be overly confident that the most likely outcome will occur. We fail to anticipate how different the future will turn out to be from our best guess about this future. Psych 466,, Miyamoto, Aut '17 The Recallability Trap (Availability)

The Recallability Trap (Availability) Factors that influence the availability of memories can distort the perceived likelihood of events. What can we do about the recallability trap? Be aware of factors that make some events more available and other events less available, when these factors do not have a real influence on whether these events will occur. Try to get empirical evidence (relevant statistics). Don't just rely on available memories. Psych 466,, Miyamoto, Aut '17 The Base Rate Trap

The Base Rate Trap The Base Rate Trap – the tendency to ignore relevant base rate information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- How to avoid it? Be aware of this trap. Seek information about relevant base rates. Don't confuse the likelihood of the data (diagnostic information) with the probability of a hypothesis that produces this data. Combine the base rate information with the diagnostic information. Don't ignore one and keep only the other. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Misperception of Chance

The Prudence Trap Worst case scenario planning leads to overly conservative estimates. Base your predictions on the best estimate of relevant factor. Don't use conservative estimates of all factors. EXAMPLE: Estimating the Cost of a Two-Day Trip to Vancouver Conservative Expense Best Guess Estimate Hotel/Motel $180 * 2 $260 * 2 Food $100 * 2 $200 * 2 Gas (for car) $120 $200 Other Expenses $50 * 2 $100 * 2 Total $780 $1,320 Psych 466,, Miyamoto, Aut '17 The Out-Guessing Randomness Trap

The Outguessing Randomness Trap The Outguessing Randomness Trap – people see patterns where none exist. (The Misperception of Chance) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- What to do about it? Be aware of the tendency to see patterns in random data. Don't try to outguess purely random phenomena. It can't be done. If you think you see patterns, check your theory in an inexpensive study. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Failure to Predict Future Experience

The Surprised-by-Surprises Trap Omit this one? Low probability events happen all the time, if we describe events in sufficient detail. Post hoc reasoning tends to over-interpret low probability coincidences. Psych 466,, Miyamoto, Aut '17 #

Errors in Predicting Future Experience This is not on the Smart Choices list. Impact bias – consequences seem more important than they turn out to be. Projection bias – tendency to project one's current mood or visceral state into a future situation where one will be in a different mood or visceral state. What to do about it? Be aware that future possibilities usually have a smaller impact than we expect them to have. Remember that your emotional response to a change is different from your emotional adjustment after you are used to the change. Projection bias was not discussed in 2017 Psych 466. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Conclusion – Forewarned is Forearmed

Conclusion – Forewarned is Forearmed Today, this collection of warnings is the best that we can do. Claim (in Smart Choices): The best protection against these traps is awareness. JM’s comment re psychological traps: The only known protections against these traps are * awareness * self-training * rethinking the issues from multiple viewpoints The only known protections against these traps are awareness and self-training. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 New Topic - Working Memory and Self Regulation