Gabriel Granco Department of Geography Is Sugarcane a new driver of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Brazilian Savanna? Gabriel Granco Department of Geography

Goals Brief description of the drivers of Sugarcane expansion to the Brazilian Savanna Demonstration of Sugarcane expansion and Land Use Change on the Brazilian Savanna Hífen no primeiro tópico

Overview Part I Problem Methods and Sources Part II Drivers Land Use Preliminary Conclusions Grifados Conclusions

Problem: Alternative to Fossil Fuel Use of fossil fuel has serious consequences Need to find alternative fuel Sugarcane ethanol is the best alternative at the moment! Reduces 60% - 80% of greenhouse gases compared to gasoline Price competitive Established production in Brazil Brazil has land to expand its production New problem: Does the expansion of sugarcane affect the Land Use and Land Cover of the Brazilian Savanna? grifado

Method and Sources Method: Literature Review and Data Analysis. Data sources: Key informant interview (CEO of Mills, Farmers, CEO of COOP) Agricultural Census (IBGE) Remote Sensing – Imagery Interpretation Canasat Project, INPE Grifado sources

Sugarcane Ethanol in Brazil is not new!!! First Blend Mandate in Brazil – 1933. Thousand m3 Oil Crisis Proalcool Ethanol Car Blend Mandate = Ethanol produced to control sugar prices Oil Crisis = Ethanol gain importance, BR wants to reduce its dependence to imported oil Proalcool = Gov. program to stimulated production of ethanol. Financed new mills and distilleries, and expansion of sugarcane area SP was the main benefited with this policy, and established as the main producer Source: Ipeadata; ANP; UNICA. Elaborated: Author

São Paulo Consolidation 2012 21% of State area Technology Market Mills Flex-Fuel Cars Source: Agricultural Census, IBGE.

Socio-Environmental Problems A common harvest practice is to burn the sugarcane field; the burning endangers wildlife and the air pollution affects urban population; After the burn, cane-cutters go to the field and cut the sugarcane. Cane-cutters are exploited and suffers several health issues (from cut-accidents to death by exhaustion)

Mechanization and the competition for land increased operational cost Only operates with slopes <12% Expensive Rural unemployment São Paulo State intent to eliminate burning practice until 2017 Mechanized harvest avoid burning and cane-cutters. SP: 34% 2006, to 73% 2012 mechanized harvest However, this created a new social problem of unemployment of this workers. Cor dos itens Mechanization and the competition for land increased operational cost

Solution: New Frontier Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul States Part of the Brazilian Savanna Traditional producers of soybeans, corn, and cattle Cerrado: Good agricultural conditions, after correcting the soil. Terrain Plain, rain (one rain season, other dry season), soil allows mechanization

Attractiveness of the New Frontier Investments in roads and ethanol pipeline Fiscal Incentives: tax postponement or exemption Land Prices per hectare, 2012 São Paulo $ 17,391 Mato Grosso do Sul $ 8,695 Goiás $ 9,565 Roads, investiment to connect the producing region to markets, Ethanoldute connecting goias to SP Fiscal Incentives: States govt concede tax exemption for sugarcane industry. Municipalities also do similar. They want to have the industry installed on their area. Expectation of more employment and have a more dynamic economy. Land Prices: Land is cheaper iin GO and MS. Source: Agrianual, 2013

Expansion Goiás 2005 202.5 thousand hectares 2012 State level it does’nt show, all uses expanded their area (except natural vegetation) Studies show that sugarcane grew over pasture and crop    Sugarcane Area Difference 2011 - 2006   2011 Sugarcane Soybean Corn Mato Grosso do Sul 495,821 343,079 -144,658 353,259 Goiás 697,541 460,264 76,875 263,735 210,482 162,093 -33,762 92,470 161,590 101,020 -36,000 -16,320 Source: Canasat

Land Use

Expansion Mato Grosso do Sul 2005 139.1 thousand hectares 2012 Source: Canasat

Land Use

Preliminary conclusions: Is Sugarcane a driver of LUC? Yes! Sugarcane is changing the land use on Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul What is driving Sugarcane expansion: Consolidation of São Paulo; Land price; Flat land; Technology development; Growing market

More information: ggranco@ksu.edu Questions More information: ggranco@ksu.edu Acknowledgement: NSF project Collaborative Research: Land Change in Brazil's Cerrado: Ethanol and Sugarcane Expansion at the Farm and Industry Scale

Expansion Goiás 2005 202.5 thousand hectares 2012 State level it does’nt show, all uses expanded their area (except natural vegetation) Studies show that sugarcane grew over pasture and crop    Sugarcane Area Difference 2011 - 2006   2011 Sugarcane Soybean Corn Mato Grosso do Sul 495,821 343,079 -144,658 353,259 Goiás 697,541 460,264 76,875 263,735 210,482 162,093 -33,762 92,470 161,590 101,020 -36,000 -16,320 Source: Canasat

Expansion Mato Grosso do Sul 2005 139.1 thousand hectares 2012 Source: Canasat

County level data Fiscal incentives Source: Agricultural Census, IBGE

County level data Fiscal incentives Source: Agricultural Census, IBGE

Understanding dLUC dynamic for sugarcane expansion in the South-central region of Brazil over the period of 2000 – 2009. Adami et al. 2012