Sustaining Marine Resources in a Changing Climate Execution Focus Area Sustaining Marine Resources in a Changing Climate Ned Cyr, Roger Griffis (NMFS) Krisa Arzayus (NESDIS) July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

The Challenge 1: Impacts and Risk Climate change is already impacting marine ecosystems and the communities & economies that depend on them. These impacts are expected to increase. There is much at risk domestically and internationally (food, jobs, revenue, human health, security, heritage etc). Food: 1.5 billion people (world-wide) Fisheries Jobs: 43.5 million (world-wide), 1.3 million (US) Fisheries economies: $200 B in sales/income impacts (US) Coastal economies: 60 % GDP (US) Transportation: Shipping, commerce, safety International relations and security issues July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

The Challenge 2: Growing Demand Diverse audience for marine-climate products and services Living marine resource scientists and managers Federal govt (NOAA, USFWS, USGS, EPA) State govts (35 State Fish and Wildlife Agencies) Indigenous govts (Tribal Fish and Wildlife Agencies) Academic partners (NSF, Sea Grant, universities) Ocean use scientists and managers (DOI, DOD, DOT, DHS-USCG) Ocean-dependent industries (energy, aquaculture, fishing, tourism, shipping) Ocean-dependent communities & economies (local, state, regional) Increasing demand for regional products and services What has changed? Why has it changed? How will it change? When will it change? How prepare? How reduce impacts? July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems Climate Changes Physical Chemical Impacts Biological Impacts Social Economic Impacts International Impacts  temperature  sea surface temperature Δ distribution Δ ocean dependent activities (location, timing, type) Δ trans-boundary species  Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Δ stratification Δ abundance Δ highly migratory pecies  extreme weather events Δ phenology Δ revenues & economics Δ circulation Δ survivorship  partnerships Δ industry diversity  incidence of hypoxia Δ productivity Δ treaties Δ salinity  incidence of disease Δ transportation Δ subsistence use  sea level rise  invasive species Δ security Δ human health risks  ocean acidification Mitigation Efforts ↓ emissions,  sequestration Adaptation Efforts Reduce existing stressors, manage for resilience, seek beneficial opportunitities etc

Observed or Projected Climate-related Changes in U. S Observed or Projected Climate-related Changes in U.S. Marine Ecosystems A Hypoxia Hypoxia

Shifting Fish Distributions with Warming Ocean Temperatures Eastern U.S. Waters (Cape Hatteras to Canadian Border) Over past 40 yrs: 60% major fish stocks have shifted distributions poleward (1 mile yr-1) and/or deeper (0.8 ft yr-1). Species shifting at different rates (25-200 miles poleward) Also changes in abundance, phenology, species assemblages Why changing? Future changes? 1968-1980 1995-2008 Shifting Fish Distributions with Warming Ocean Temperatures Eastern U.S. Waters (Cape Hatteras to Canadian border) Northwest Atlantic has been warming over last 40-60 years Scientists hypothesized this would lead to shifts in distribution of fish species nearly 20 years ago. Recent studies support this and confirm these shifts are already happening 60% fished stocks have shifted poleward (1.6 km yr-1) and/or deeper (0.25 m yr-1) over past 40 years. (right panels) Red Hake is one of the species showing shifts – upper panel earlier distribution averaged over 1968-80 Lower panel showing major distribution patterns over last 20 years (1995-2008) – and major shifts northward Winners and losers? Cod vs. the Atlantic Croaker Southern Species like Atlantic Croaker May Become Common in New England Waters; some stocks may nearly disappear from U.S. waters as they move farther offshore Subsequent work is beginning to model how the abundance of these species might be affected and what this might mean for fisheries ie will there be some species that decline or move into Canadian waters (losers from US fisher perspective), and will there be some species that thrive in the new climate conditions (winners?) Results suggest that colder water species like cod are expected to be largely lost to US ecosystem (move into Canadian waters) And warmer water species like Atlantic Croaker are expected to thrive and perhaps be able to sustain larger fisheries across greater areas of the east coast….. Picture is of Atlantic Cod – they’ll love the future!!! Red Hake Source: Nye JA et al. (2009), Hare et al. (2010) DRAFT - NOAA's Climate Adaptation Team

Will Some Species Thrive In A Changing Climate? Projected Increase in Atlantic Croaker Populations PROJECTIONS: Increased juvenile recruitment. 50-100 km northward shift in distribution. 60-100% increased biomass. 30-100% increased maximum sustainable yield. Potential increased fisheries? FIG. 7. Atlantic croaker fishery yield as a function of fishing mortality rate based on the temperature-dependent stock– recruitment model and ensemble multimodel mean of three climate scenarios (A1B, B1, and commit). Yield curves are presented as lines; maximum sustainable yields (MSY) and fishing rates at maximum sustainable yields (FMSY) are indicated by triangles. Shading indicates 95% confidence intervals around multimodel mean. Triangles = fishing rates at maximum sustainable yields (FMSY) . From Hare et al 2010.

How will fish catch change by 2100? Cheung et al. 2009: Redistribution of Fish Catch by Climate Change. Global Change Biology

The Challenge 3: Lack of integrated products and services Why did it change? RESEARCH What has changed? OBSERVATIONS How will it change? PROJECTIONS climate oceans Biological resources Social & economic climate oceans Biological resources Social & economic climate oceans Biological resources Social & economic Decision Makers Why change? Future change? What action to take? What changed? Products services Products services Products services Spatial scales: regional to basin Time scales: annual to decadal Fishery management plans Protected species & area management Public & private investments

Outline from the Vision and Strategy Document Marine resource managers and other decision-makers will have access to, and sufficient knowledge to apply, best available information to manage large marine ecosystems in a changing climate. Strategy: Build and sustain core set of products & services: coordinated observations, targeted research & integrated physical-biological models. July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

Key Accomplishments Delivering ocean data & products (Global Ocean Observing System): SST products based on satellite data and in-situ validation network. Salinity data from Argo (to 2000m depth) to assess salinity variability. Continuous high resolution regional observations from remote, moored and ship-board platforms (Bering Sea, Calif Current etc). Growing ocean acidification observation network. 2. Advancing assessments & projections: New modeling tools (e.g., Earth System Models, Cobalt) Regional projections (Bering Sea, Calif Current, North Atlantic) Rapid assessment protocol – fisheries climate vulnerability Building understanding and capacity: Targeted research on ocean-climate linkages (NMFS, OAR, NOS) New support for application of climate info in marine management (COCA, RISA) Needs Assessment (Climate Ready Marine Resource Management) The global ocean observing system routinely provides ocean condition data and products for ocean temperature, salinity, carbon, sea-level, sea-surface height, velocities, air-sea fluxes, and more. This information is critical to weather and climate predictions as well as estimates of the evolving ocean environment. SST products based on satellite measurements and validated by an extensive in-situ network continue  to be produced During the past year surface salinity data from the Aquarius mission has been distributed providing new insight into ocean surface conditions and processes (not NOAA-specific) Salinity information from Argo (to 2000m depth) is now the subject of research efforts to discern salinity variability signals. Routine glider and mooring measurements in the southern California Current region (from the coast to over 500km offshore) have now been continued for over 5 years and provide for the first time continuous observations with high space and time resolution of a coastal ocean and ecosystem environment that experiences climate-driven variability. Challenges: Do we know the requirements for observing the marine environment (physical, biogeochemical, etc) that are relevant for marine ecosystems? Observing and/or providing (through mixture of obs and modeling) marine environmental conditions with sufficient resolution (in space and time) to enable skillful marine ecosystem predictions July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

Focus Area Organization Director, NMFS/Science & Tech (Chair) Director, OAR/CPO Director, OAR/GFDL Director, OAR/ESRL Director, OAR/PMEL & AOML Director, NESDIS/NODC Director, NESDIS/NCDC Director, NWS/CPC Director, NOS/NCCOS Executive Working Group * PROPOSED Roger Griffis, NMFS/Science & Tech Project Lead Working Group Project Plan Regional Pilots Execution Agreements Advisory Group & external partners Last Updated: 5/8/2012

Key Scientific and Technical Issues What are the critical observing requirements (physical, biogeochemical, etc) for early warnings and projections of climate impacts in marine systems? What are the key physical, chemical and biological indicators to track? How integrate observations and modeling with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to enable skillful marine ecosystem predictions? What are the best modeling tools/approaches to provide regional scale projections of climate impacts on marine resources? What changes & impacts have already happened? How well can we project climate impacts on species or users? What spatial and temporal resolution is most useful to decision-makers – and can we deliver at these scales? Can the resource management process incorporate and respond to information on past and future climate impacts?

Discussion with CWG FOCUS AREA: Regional projections of climate impacts on marine resources PRODUCT LINE: Impact assessments (to date) Risk assessments (outlooks, projections) Spatial scale? Temporal scale? Species? Format? ISSUES: Integrating efforts across NOAA Integrating efforts with non-NOAA partners (e.g., other feds, academia, regional ocean observing systems, state agencies) Engaging decision makers Engaging ocean-dependent sectors, users Leveraging federal, state and non-govt science enterprise July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

Backup 06/06/2012

?? Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate Bering Sea Pollock 2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment 5 NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1 Help? 3 2

Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate ?? 2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment 5 NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1 Help? 3 2

Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate ?? 2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment NPCREP warning of poor environmental conditions reported in assessment documents 5 NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1 Help? 3 2

Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate ?? 2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment NPCREP warning of poor environmental conditions reported in assessment documents Fishery Management Council’s Science and Statistical Committee (SSC) receives warning 5 NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1 Help? 3 2

Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate ?? Council adopts SSC recommendation to reduce pollock harvest based on assessment and continuation of poor (warm) environmental conditions 2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment NPCREP warning of poor environmental conditions reported in assessment documents Fishery Management Council’s Science and Statistical Committee (SSC) receives warning 5 NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1 Help? 3 2

Quota cut from 1.6 to 0.8 million tons Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate Quota cut from 1.6 to 0.8 million tons Council adopts SSC recommendation to reduce pollock harvest based on assessment and continuation of poor (warm) environmental conditions 2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment NPCREP warning of poor environmental conditions reported in assessment documents Fishery Management Council’s Science and Statistical Committee (SSC) receives warning 5 NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1 Help? 3 2