LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE ERUPTION OF INDONESIA’S MOUNT SINABUNG February 3, 2014 lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: February 11, 2014 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/collections/collection52.htm PPT original - http://www.pitt.edu/~super7/51011-52001/51611.ppt Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE INDONESIA’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK EARTHQUAKES GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE CYCLONES ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

MOUNT SINABUNG North Sumatra

FEBRUARY 3, 2012

Scalding ash up to 700 degrees C raced down the slope in just two to three minutes, engulfing Sukameriah, a village close to the volcano's crater.

15 DEATHS—THE FIRST TIME THIS VOLCANOE’S ERUPTION HAS CAUSED DEATHS All the deaths and at least 3 injuries were in Sukameriah

NOVEMBER 3, 2012

VOLCANOES PART OF THE PACIFIC “RING OF FIRE,” INDONESIA HAS 127 ACTIVE VOLCANOES AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX SUBDUCTION OF THE INDO-AUSTRALIA AND EURASIATECTONIC PLATES

542 OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ARE LOCATED IN “RING OF FIRE”

INDONESIA

INDONESIA’S VOLCANOES

ESSENTIAL KNOWLEDGE ON VOLCANOES

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS VERTICAL PLUME (can affect jet aircraft) ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS LAVA FLOWS LAHARS (can bury villages) EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) “VOLCANIC WINTER” (causing famine and mass extinctions)

LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS CAUSES OF RISK LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS CASE HISTORIES LAHARS TOXIC GASES

GOAL: VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE VOLCANO HAZARDS PEOPLE & BLDGS. VULNERABILITY LOCATION VOLCANO RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RISK GOAL: VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE INDONESIA’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

INDONESIA’S MOST NOTABLE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Lake Toba Mount Tambora Krakatau Merapi

INDONESIA’S NOTABLE ERUPTIONS Lake Toba: Supervolcanic eruption 74,000 years ago that caused 6 years of volcanic winter Mount Tambora: One of the most violent eruptions in recorded history that occurred in 1815. Krakatau: Notable for its global effects in 1883

INDONESIA’S MOST ACTIVE VOLCANES AT PRESENT Mount Sinabung Mount Kelut Mount Merapi

Thousands have died in these eruptions Since AD 1000, Kelut has erupted more than 30 times, with the largest eruption having a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 5 Thousands have died in these eruptions

Merapi has erupted more than 80 times Thousands have died in these eruptions

SUDDEN CHANGE IN ACTIVITY Since December 26, 2004 when the M9 SUDDEN CHANGE IN ACTIVITY Since December 26, 2004 when the M9.3 Banda Ache earthquake and tsunami occurred, volcanic activity increased and some of Indonesia’s dormant volcanoes became active again.

ERUPTIONS OF MOUNT MERAPI May 15, and June 6 - 8, 2006

MOUNT MERAPI RECEIVED CLOSE ATTENTION ON APRIL 18

INDONESIA’S MOUNT MERAPI ERUPTED ON MAY 15, 2006 Mount Merapi, a stratovolcano, emitted lava, debris, and a pyroclastic flow (or cloud) on May 15.

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION Hot ash released.

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION Volcanic ash turned everything white

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION School children wore masks to counter adverse health effects of breathing volcanic ash.

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION Volcanic ash covered crops and vegetation.

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION Volcanic ash covered automobiles and affected jet airline traffic.

MOUNT MERAPI ERUPTED AGAIN ON JUNE 6-8, 2006 Mount Merapi volcano emitted lava, debris, and pyroclastic flows (superheated clouds of gas) on Tuesday, June 6 and Wednesday, June 7.

EXPLOSIVENESS OF JUNE 8 ERUPTION SENT 15,000 FLEEING

EVACUATION 11,000 from three districts evacuated to schools and other “safe haven” emer-gency shelters.

MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE Many citizens chose to evacuate. Evacuation was ordered. Villagers remembered the 1994 disaster.

MANY CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE Many citizens chose not to evacuate because shelters are boring and they wanted to provide for livestock and tend crops.

TOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FOR VOLCANOES RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE EVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COST BENEFIT CONSEQUENCES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS EXPECTED LOSS POLICY ADOPTION

THE KEYS TO RESILIENCE: 1) KNOW THE ERUPTIVE HISTORY OF YOUR REGION’S VOLCANOES, 2) BE PREPARED 3) HAVE A WARNING SYSTEM 4) EVACUATE 5) LEARN FROM THE EXPERIENCE AND START OVER

MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF SURVIVAL.

AIR AND LAND MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES ARE VITAL .