Warm Up 1) A t-shirt company makes shirts in sizes S, M, L, XL and XXL and in the colors chartreuse, burgundy, fuchsia and mauve. How many different types of t-shirts does the company make? 2) Alfredo is taking AP English Lit, AP Chemistry, AP Stats, AP Economics, AP French and Sculpture this year. Assuming all classes are offered each period, how many possible schedules can he have? 3) Assume there are 33 students in this class. If a group of 3 students will be randomly selected, how many groups of selected students are possible?

Chapter 5 – Probability and Simulation Section 5.1 focuses on simulation. Section 5.2 covers conventional probability Section 5.3 covers conditional probability. When we produce data by random sampling the laws of probability answer the question: “What would happen if we did this many times?” Probability is the basis of inference.

Basic Probability Concepts Probability is a number between 0 and 1 that describes the proportion of times an outcome will occur in a chance process over a large number of repetitions. Chance processes are predictable in the long run but not in the short run. The outcome of previous events does not affect the probability of the next event. If a coin has landed on heads after 10 consecutive flips the probability it will land on heads on the next flip is 0.5.

Practice Problems 1) List the sample space for flipping a coin 4 times. What is the probability of getting more heads than tails in these 4 flips? 2) What is the probability of rolling 2 dies and getting a double? 3) In a cooler at the picnic there are 5 cans of Coke, 3 cans of Diet Coke, 4 cans of Sprite and 6 cans of Diet Pepsi. If James grabs a can without looking, what is the probability he will get a diet soda? 4) In poker a flush is a hand with 5 cards of the same suit. Assume a player has the 3, 6, 7 and 10 of clubs. If no other cards have been dealt from the deck except these 4, what is the probability the player’s next card will give her a flush?