Hazards Planning and Risk Management Lecture No. 18 Natural Disasters Fall 2017 US – Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water

Learning Objective Natural Hazards What are they? Where do they occur? Why do they occur? Consequences of their occurrence? Source: lecture 1 introduction to natural hazards.ppt 2 E. J. Peters 20110 2

Reading Material Dr. Cees Westen (ITC) Guide Book 01 & 03 (pdf provided at wordpress)

All communities are vulnerable to disasters In every person’s lifetime, at least one natural hazard will likely have some impact on their life. E. J. Peters 2010

Why should be concerned about hazards? On average, about 150,000 people are killed worldwide by natural hazards each year Globally, losses (both in terms of death and economic costs) are increasing because of the exponential increase in human population More people are living in areas where hazards occur more frequently and often with greater severity. Source: E. J. Peters 20110

Hazard Prediction When, where, why, and how natural hazards occur? The first step in minimizing hazards’ impacts To design forecasting and early warning systems Speed of onset plays an important role in hazard prediction

Speed of Onset The time of onset is the lapse of time from the occurrence of the first precursor to the intensity peak of the hazardous event. Sudden onset: little or no warning, minimal time to prepare Example: earthquake, tsunami, cyclone, volcano, etc. Slow onset: adverse event slow to develop; first the situation develops; the second level is an emergency; the third level is a disaster. Example: drought, civil strife, epidemic, etc. Source: Disaster Management Version 01

Time of onset of a flood is represented by the delay between the rainfall and the discharge peaks

Where, What Disaster may occur? Earthquakes occur along active tectonic plate margins Volcanoes occur along subduction zones (e.g. around the margins of the Pacific plate, so-called ‘Ring of Fire’) Tsunamis occur in the neighborhood of active plate margins, but also at a considerable distance from these as tsunami waves can travel over large distances. Tropical cyclones (in North America called ‘hurricanes’ and in Asia called ‘typhoons’) occur in particular zones indicated with green areas in the map. Landslides occur in hilly and mountainous regions. Westen Guidebook 01 Introduction to Risk Assessment

Westen Guidebook 01 Introduction to Risk Assessment

Disasters are Increasing Worldwide? Why? Increase in vulnerability Factors leading to higher number of hazardous events

Increased Vulnerability Factors: Rapid increase of the world population Large urbanization rate (related to the population pressure) Human settlements on areas that are susceptible to natural hazards (related to the population pressure) Most of the world population lives in the hazardous regions, either in coastal zones, or in seismically active regions Westen Guidebook 01

Developing countries with lower insurance coverage Factors (Continu..) Development of highly sensitive technologies and the growing susceptibility of modern industrial societies to breakdowns in their infrastructure Developing countries with lower insurance coverage Westen Guidebook 01

Frequency of Destructive Events Related to atmospheric extremes is increasing Climate change is negatively related with the occurrence of natural disasters Source: Westen Guidebook 01 The frequency of destructive events related to atmospheric extremes (such as floods, drought, cyclones, and landslides) is also increasing

Domino Effect One type of hazard can trigger a domino effect of disasters For example, a drought may lead to a famine, which in turn leads to civil conflict resulting in a mass displacement of the population. Another example includes flooding which may force people to seek refuge across international borders upsetting the balance of needs and resources and weakening the ability of the government to receive the added population growth. This in turn may lead to civil strife and disorder. Such compound hazards and disasters need not occur sequentially; they can occur simultaneously. (Reading 1)

DISASTER AND DEVELOPMENT

Disasters and Development Disasters and development are closely linked Disasters can both destroy development initiatives and create development opportunities Development schemes can both increase vulnerability and decrease vulnerability Source: Disaster Management Version 01

Relationships between Disasters and Development Disasters set back development programing, destroying years of development initiatives. Rebuilding after a disaster provides significant opportunities to initiate development programs Development programs can increase an area’s susceptibility to disasters. OR Development programs can be designed to decrease the susceptibility to disasters and their negative consequences Source: Disaster Management Version 01 Disasters can improve the atmosphere in favor of change and create a rationale to establish development programs such as job training, housing construction and land reform. However, poor management of the relief and rehabilitation responses may have severe negative implications for development for years to come, and may even increase vulnerability to future hazards. Vulnerabilities caused by development Although in aggregate terms development will usually contribute to a reduction in vulnerability to natural disasters, any development activity may substantially increase particular types of vulnerability. E.g. coastal zone development, multistory buildings on hazard prone zones, tourist resorts, deforestation for development purposes may lead to soil erosion and landslides, dams and irrigation schemes (displace natural habitat, excessive flooding, dam failure), industries attract people to live around exposed to pollutants and industrial hazards, livestock development - overgrazing – loss of vegetation cover – near desertification, agricultural projects preferring cash crops on staple crops. etc. Refer Text from source page 29. Therefore, include risk assessment as an integral part of development programs planning and evaluation.

Disasters in Developing Countries According to UN Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO) coordinator, approximately 90% of all reported natural disasters occur in the Third World countries Sudden disasters may cause chronicle sufferings in developing countries Creeping hazards are also of special relevance for developing countries Creeping hazards: desertification, drought, deforestation or/and poor agricultural practices – result in – soil erosion, degradation of catchment area leading to modifications in the hydrological regime, reduced natural storage capacity, diminished water levels and frequent widespread and flash floods. 22

Disasters in Developed Countries Earthquakes in Italy and Japan Hurricanes and tornados in USA Approximately 5% of Japan’s national budget is being invested in disaster preparedness Most regions are less prone because of better geographical locations and climatological conditions Less constrained in human and material sources to employ methods for disaster prevention and mitigation Due to Japans great national effort damage caused by disasters relative to the standard of living is decreasing and therefore Japan is absent from the list of nations where disaster causing economic loss is more than 1% GNP. On the other hand, industrialized countries are responsible for greater global changing that are disaster causing. 23

Disaster Events Databases EM-DAT database: www.em-dat.be Glidenumber by Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC): www.glidenumber.net UNDP website: http://gridca.grid.unep.ch/undp/ others

Number of Reported disasters – EMDAT database Westen Guidebook 01

The Problems with databases? Today key problems with disaster data remain the lack of standardized collection methodologies and definitions (UNISDR and CRED) For natural disasters during the last decade, data on deaths are missing in about 10 per cent of the disasters; around 20 per cent lack information on the total number of people affected, and about 70 percent do not cover economic damages. Westen Guidebook 01 The figures therefore should be regarded as indicative. UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction = UNISDR Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

Exercise

Pakistan Scenario Geography Climate The country is geographically divided into three areas: Northern highlands, Indus river plains and Balochistan plateau Climate Pakistan is a land of great climatic contrast Low rainfall and extreme variations in rainfall 59.3% lands with less than 200 mm annual rainfall. Southern slopes of the Himalayas and the sub mountainous : rainfall from 760 to 1270 mm.

Geographical cross section of Pakistan Source: http://pakistangeographic.com/himalayan-range.html

Natural Disasters The range of natural hazards in Pakistan Earthquake Cyclone Drought Floods Landslide Human Induced Disasters

http://www.preventionweb.net/countries/pse/data

Source: http://www.preventionweb.net/countries/pak/data/

Major Natural Disasters in Pakistan 1935-2005 Check this table… 33

Vulnerability Index Source: NDMA http://www.ndma.gov.pk/plans/Directive_2015.pdf Source: NDMA

Discussion/Comment/Question