The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency aid disbursement

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Presentation transcript:

The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency aid disbursement By: Ashwin Puri and Zackary Abu-Akeel

Premise Does the regime-type of a country effect foreign aid disbursement by The World Bank in emergency crises?

Y: Frequency of Foreign Aid During Emergency Crises X and y X: Regime-Type of Country Y: Frequency of Foreign Aid During Emergency Crises

Hypothesis If a country is a democracy (regime-type), then in emergency crises they will receive foreign aid by The World Bank more frequently than an Autocracy.

Literature Review Alejandro Quiroz Flores and Alastair Smith: Leader Survival and Natural Disasters Disasters have a minimal effect on the stability of democracies Large effect on the stability of autocracies How does foreign aid factor in?

Regime-Type Data Obtained from Adam Przeworski, Michael E. Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, Fernando Limongi, used in Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990 Regime-Type is measured by Contestation in Democratic Elections: Ex-ante Uncertainty: Probability that one member of incumbent party will lose election Ex-post Irreversibility: Assurance that winner will assume office Repeatability: Continued elections must occur; winner must not make future elections impossible

Emergency Crises Data Obtained from EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database Consists of all determined disasters from 1900-2014 A “Disaster” is determined by one or more of the following: • Ten (10) or more people reported killed. • Hundred (100) or more people reported affected. • Declaration of a state of emergency. • Call for international assistance. Merged with The World Bank’s data on emergency aid disbursement.

Merged Data

Correlation Accounting for our new variable, the amount of crises The World Bank has responded to per country, over the total amount of crises in a country per year over time.

Preliminary results A regime-type of democracy increases the likelihood of aid from The World Bank in emergency-crises situations. Further controls to account for

Questions?