Future Studies (Futurology) By T Garrett

Introduction

What are Future Studies? Futures studies (also called futurology) is the study of imagining possible, probable, and preferable futures Part of the social sciences Futures studies seek to understand in a systemic manner what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change What are Future Studies?

Unlike physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futures studies concern a much bigger and more complex world system. We tend to think on the BIG scale in the LONG TERM! Broad or Narrow Scope?

You Bet! …….. Future Studies methodology and knowledge are much less proven as compared to other sciences and are subject to more controversy. Futures studies are an interdisciplinary field which leads to a rich tapestry of views, and …….. Controversy! Controversial?

Distinguishing Features of Futures Studies

Three Distinguishing Factors Three factors often distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines: First, futures studies often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and "wild card" futures. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines. Three Distinguishing Factors

Three Distinguishing Factors Third, futures studies challenges and unpack the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but comprises hidden assumptions and open controversies! Three Distinguishing Factors

How far ahead? Not the short term (now to say a year from now) Nor the medium term (say 1 – 5 years from now) But we ARE interested in the long term (say 5 – 20+ years from now) How far ahead?

Probability and Predictability

Probability and Predictability Probability – The mathematical likelihood of something happening (or not)! Predictability – Happening or turning out in the way that might have been expected or predicted Probability and Predictability

Probability and Predictability Some aspects of the future, especially in physical sciences, are highly predictable, and may even be described by relatively simple mathematical models. The more complex the world becomes, even physical sciences struggle with the future. It is probably still safe to say the majority of future events are unpredictable, in specific instances, with 100% confidence (probability). Probability and Predictability

Probability and Predictability The tension between predictability and unpredictability is a source of controversy and conflict among futures studies scholars. Some argue that the future is essentially unpredictable, and that "the best way to predict the future is to create it." Probability and Predictability

Probability and Predictability Others believe, that advances in science, probability, modelling and statistics will allow us to continue to improve our understanding of probable futures. Such improvements do not though, from a complex theory viewpoint, address the unpredictability inherent in dealing with entire systems, which emerge from the interaction between multiple individual events. Probability and Predictability

Probability and Predictability In short, we may be getting better at predicting the outcome(s) in simple situations, but we are far away from predicting with confidence the outcome(s) ‘big issues’! Probability and Predictability

Probability and Predictability

Methodologies

Futures Studies - Fundamental Assumptions Included in the fundamental assumptions in futures studies are: The future is plural not singular, that is, that it consists of alternative futures of varying likelihood but that it is impossible in principle to say with certainty which one will occur. Futures Studies - Fundamental Assumptions

Futures Studies - Fundamental Assumptions The primary effort in futures studies, therefore, is to identify and describe alternative futures. This effort includes collecting quantitative and qualitative data about the possibility, probability, and desirability of change. Futures Studies - Fundamental Assumptions

Futures Studies - Fundamental Assumptions The plurality of the term "futures" in futures studies denotes the rich variety of alternative futures, including the subsets of preferable futures that can be studied. Futures Studies - Fundamental Assumptions

Plural Futures

Futures studies is often summarised as being concerned with four future pathways, "three Ps and a W", or: Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures, Plus Wildcards, which are low probability but high impact events (positive or negative), should they occur. Four Future Pathways

Estimating probability is involved in perceiving and classifying both probable and wildcard events), whilst also considering the range of possible futures. Most estimates of probability in futures studies are qualitative! Four Future Pathways

Tedx - Discussing Plural Futures

Futures Techniques

Futurists use a diverse range of methods, but the time available in this module constrains us to look at only some of them. Later in the module we will look at: Causal Layered Analysis Environmental Scanning Scenario Planning Delphi Method Futures Techniques

Futures Techniques Emerging Issues Analysis Backcasting It is worth noting these are not unique methods, but are often complementary, and you will sometimes find yourself using a combination of methods in your studies. Futures Techniques

Shaping Alternative Futures For the moment let us look at the underlying approach to Scenario Planning in a little more detail. Futurists use scenarios – alternative possible futures – as an important tool. By looking at a variety of possibilities one comes closer to shaping the future, rather than merely predicting it (which is often more difficult to do anyway!). Shaping Alternative Futures

Shaping Alternative Futures Shaping alternative futures starts by establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes place as a process with many stages. One of those stages involves the study of trends. Establishing trends means identifying signs or signals Shaping Alternative Futures

Shaping Alternative Futures Shaping alternative futures starts by establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes place as a process with many stages. One of those stages involves the study of trends. Establishing trends means identifying signs or signals. Identifying these might not be easy! Shaping Alternative Futures

Shaping Alternative Futures For reasons of convenience, futurists in the past often extrapolated present technical and societal trends and assume they will develop at the same rate into the future. However technical progress and social upheavals, in reality, take place in fits and starts and in different areas at different rates. So, simple extrapolation of current trends can be a dodgy business! Shaping Alternative Futures

Shaping Alternative Futures To get around this futurists now often present multiple scenarios that help their audience envision what "may" occur instead of merely "predicting the future". They claim that understanding potential scenarios helps individuals and organizations prepare with flexibility. Shaping Alternative Futures

Futures Studies - Glossary Click on the picture above to access an online Futurology Glossary Futures Studies - Glossary