Why Public Opinion Doesn’t Equal Public Policy Public opinion—the distribution of individual attitudes toward a particular issue, candidate, or political institution. Framers did NOT create a government to do what the people wanted on a day-to-day basis…look at the Preamble It is not always easy to decipher what the public thinks The more people are active people are, the more weight their opinions carry—most people value politics LOW

Origins of Political Attitudes: “Agents of Socialization” Political socialization: the process through which an individual acquires his/her own political orientations Family—majority of young people identify with their parents’ political party, but this influence has declined with rise of independents Religion—Protestants conservative; Jews and Catholics liberal on economic issues, Jews also liberal on social issues—emphasize social justice Jews/Catholics once poor immigrants, sided with Democrats. Christian Coalition—mobilizes grassroots Republicans, place importance on personal responsibility Gender—males more conservative, females will support female candidates…party alliances have switched as party stances switched

The Role of Schooling: Why are More Educated People Liberal?? Individual traits may account for liberalism (family, intelligence, temperament) Students more exposed to politics from more sources (liberal cultural elite) College teaches liberalism (professors decidedly liberal…demand intellectual and hence, civil liberties) Effect extends long after college But wealth sometimes tempers these effects

Public Opinion Differences The devil is in the demographics. U.S. has long been a melting pot Social Class: V.O. Key : professionals more conservative on social policy, internationalist views (50s), now less so Race: Seymour Lipset: Whites opposed to affirmative action, blacks oppose death penalty, races agree on banning abortion on demand, ban on drugs. Asians (esp. Japanese) vote like whites, Hispanics differ Region: South more accommodating to business, less friendly to fiscal redistribution

New Phenomenons: “Gray Tigers”-senior citizens very powerful Sunbelt increasing in power over “Rustbelt” Reapportionment accelerates this Growing influence of Hispanic population

Political Ideology Def’n: A coherent and consistent set of beliefs about who ought to rule, what principles rulers should obey, and what policies rulers ought to pursue People regularly have “inconsistent” opinions (ex: wanting to spend more on both national defense and welfare) Elites have MASSIVE influence in framing the debate—they may not tell you how to think, but they make you think certain issues are important

Changing Meaning of Liberalism Old (Classical Liberalism or European Liberalism): Favors personal and economic liberty. Would have supported free market and opposed government regulation of trade New: Favors active national government, social welfare, assisting organized labor in bargaining, civil rights, affirmative action Changed extensively by FDR: Activist government

Changing Meaning of Conservatism Old: Opposed excesses of French Revolution and its emphasis on personal freedom, wanted to restore power of the State, the Church, and the aristocracy Now: Favor foreign intervention, less government, free market, states’ rights

Analyzing Consistency Pure Liberals (17%)—liberal economically and socially, want to tax rich heavily, regulate business, fiscally redistribute, cure economic causes of crime, guarantee abortion rights, protect rights of the accused and 1st amendment freedoms Pure Conservatives (28%)—conservative economically and socially, want to cut back welfare state, allow free market to operate, low taxes, lock up criminals, curb deviant behavior Libertarians (21%)—conservative economically, liberal socially Populists (24%)—liberal economically, conservative on social issues

Is there a “New Class?” Def’n: Those who are advantaged by the power, resources, and growth of GOVERNMENT (not business) 2 explanations of well-off liberals: 1) Directly benefit from government 2) Liberal ideology infusing postgraduate education Traditional MC also split in 2: Republican MC: 4 years college, suburban, church-affiliated, probusiness, socially conservative. “Silent majority” Democrat MC: Postgraduate, urban, critical of business, liberal socially

Party Membership Democrats: African-Americans, Jews, union members, educated people, many Catholics (changing) GOP: White males, Protestants, business community, higher-income groups, suburbanites, some Catholics because of Republican view on abortion (“Knights of Columbus” Catholics)

Public Opinion Polling Rarely a single public opinion; diversity produces many opinions Polling developed during 1930s (Gallup) Polls rely on a SAMPLE of the population or UNIVERSE. 1500-2000 people can provide a very good overview of what the universe thinks Key to accuracy: random sampling Sampling error will always exist; minimize in several ways (larger sample) Most polls use sophisticated computer software, random digit dialing Problems: Nonresponse rate increasing, bad techniques (1936 poll predicts Landon victory)

The Role of Polls in American Democracy Supporters: It’s a tool for democracy that keeps leaders responsive Critics: Makes politicians too concerned with following rather than leading Benjamin Ginsberg: polls actually weaken democracy because it takes into account passive voices Polls may create a bandwagon effect Exit poll most criticized poll Bias in questions, wording of questions can skew results

Results of Polling Average American has low level of knowledge. Name current leaders test (VP, Cabinet, CJ SCOTUS)