In depth analysis of TYNDP issues TYNDP assessment Findings for NW region Resilience Denmark/Sweden, Luxembourg Supply dependency South of France Network adaptability no issues Supply source diversification Denmark/Sweden Projects resolving aforementioned issues For Denmark/Sweden: solved by Project Ellund, see section 4.3.1 and 4.3.2 For Luxembourg: work in progress, see section 4.3.3 For South of France: work in progress, see section 4.3.4

Resilience

Supply Source Dependency

Supply Source Diversification

Chapter ‘In Depth Review of TYNDP Identified NW Issues’: Example Resilience Assessment Potential investment gaps Germany, Denmark (and Sweden) TYNDP Project Ellund Capacity extension from Germany to Denmark would solve this issue Projects were identified through an Open Season in 2009 FID-project Step 1 increase capacity from Oct. 2014 at a level of 310,000 m³/h Non-FID project Step 2 increase capacity in 2016 at a level of 500,000 m³/h Update GRIP 2013 Step 2 is now also FID No investment gap

Background to NWE Projects Procedures followed to define investment projects Past and present projects (FID) Possible future projects (non-FID) Maps Matrix Explanation how the matrix works in conjunction with the appendix

Matrix – how it works Step 1: look up the IP number on capacity map Step 2: goto matrix and find IP number (ascending order) Step 3: find TYNDP code(s) of project(s) Step 4: with TYNDP code and country goto appendix (countries in alphabetical order, within country in alphabetical order of TYNDP code)

Implementation of draft RCC feedback September 4th S&D Demand uncertainty Energy efficiency measures taken in member states are part of the demand figures of the NW GRIP report But major uncertainty in heating market is outside temperatures. Elasticity for domestic heating market on price is low.

Matrix – how it works Step 1: look up the IP number on capacity map Step 2: goto matrix and find IP number (ascending order) Step 3: find TYNDP code(s) of project(s) Step 4: with TYNDP code and country goto appendix (countries in alphabetical order, within country in alphabetical order of TYNDP code)

Conclusions TSOs are aware of TYNDP identified issues Germany/Denmark/Sweden solved, RFO 2016 Vulnerable position of Sweden improved but not solved. Solutions identified but not decided Luxembourg congestion identified but not solved Price spread between PEG Nord and PEG South identified, solutions being analysed Enduring importance of gas, but increasing import dependency Depleting L-gas sources in Germany and the Netherlands trigger L-gas market conversion Role of gas in power generation and increasing contribution of RES adds to the challenges in flexible gas supply and transmission Further challenges to network development due to decreasing long term transmission capacity commitments

NW GRIP 2013 Timeline - future Nov 2013 26 Nov 28 Nov 1st Jan 2014 2014 2015 Publish report, start consultation phase GRIP workshop ENTSOG GRI NW presentation End consultation phase Review of feedback ENTSOG discussions future GRIPs New NW GRIP 2015

Questions?