Delivering absolute returns from global bond markets

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Presentation transcript:

Delivering absolute returns from global bond markets April 2016 Nicholas Chatters – Investment Manager, Fixed Income

Nicholas Chatters, Investment manager Nicholas Chatters is an investment manager in the fixed income team and specialises in interest rate derivatives and relative value investment. He is co-manager of the Kames Absolute Return Global Bond Fund and supports the management of the Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund. Nicholas joined us in 2013 from Citi and has a background as an interest rate derivatives trader. He studied for an undergraduate degree in Economics and postgraduate degree in Finance at the University of St Andrews. He has 9 years’ industry experience.

Introducing Kames Capital absolute return Assets under management in absolute return funds (€m) Investment capabilities Fixed income Equities Property Multi-asset Absolute return Ethical Launched first absolute return fund in 2010 We manage six funds: Three equity market neutral funds Three absolute return bond funds Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund Kames Absolute Return Bond Global Fund launched 29 April 2015, designed to replicate KARB As at 31 December 2015

Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund Performance Net performance total return since launch Total since launch Total return (net) 7.64% Benchmark total return 2.86% Difference (net) 4.78% Total return (gross) 10.78% Best month (Oct 2011) 0.60% Worst month (Jan 2016) -0.31% Up months 36/53 Down months 17/53 Maximum Drawdown -1.00% Volatility 0.69 Sharpe Ratio 1.53 Source: Lipper, NAV to NAV, noon prices, local currency, as at 29 February 2016. Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund B (Acc) GBP shares. Total return excluding initial charges, net of annual management charge, income re-invested. Table – all Fund returns based on cumulative noon Lipper data. Gross returns based on Lipper data grossed up for AMC. Benchmark is at close. Risk statistics based on annualised monthly returns. Maximum Drawdown period based on daily returns. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Note: the Fund launched on 30 September 2011 and within the last 5 years. .

Lower volatility opportunity Focus on alpha over beta Source: Kames Capital, Bloomberg, BofA Merril Lynch, as at 29 February 2016. * Annualised volatility since inception for Kames Absolute Return Bond Global Fund

Delivering returns uncorrelated to the underlying market Correlation = 0.07 Correlation = -0.16 Source: Bloomberg and BoA Merrill Lynch as at 29 February 2015. Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund B (Acc) GBP shares. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Our Absolute Return Bond Funds structure Kames Absolute Return Bond Funds Carry Rates Credit & Asset Allocation Targeting absolute return, low volatility, low correlation

Trade examples

Rates module Long UK/short US  Rationale Diverging expectations of monetary policy Action in May 2015 Long UK 5-year government risk Short US 5-year government risk Result Fundamental trade rationale remains intact Short-term technical argued for taking profit We closed the trade at a small profit Trade closed Trade entered Source: Bloomberg and Kames Capital as at 16 June 2015. For illustrative purposes only.

Rates UK 10s30s flattener Rationale Action in October 2015 Result Long end underperformed ahead of supply event Action in October 2015 Long 30y UK Government risk Short 10y UK Government risk Result Trade closed at profit after continues flattening Re-entered position at better entry levels Trade entered Trade closed Source: Kames and Bloomberg as at 13 November 2015. For illustrative purposes only.

Rates module 2v5v10y GBP Fly Rationale UK interest rate pricing looks extremely low in short dated swaps, looking for relative value in the shape of the curve Action in May 2015 Long 1 unit of 2y swap Short 2 units of 5y swap Long 1 unit of 10y swap Result As market expectations of interest rate moves are priced in, the fly moves higher to generate a profit, without taking outright duration risk Closed trade 18 Nov 7.9bps Entered trade 23 Oct 4.4bps Source: Bloomberg and Kames Capital as at 31 December 2015. For illustrative purposes only.

Credit module Long MGM/short Ladbrokes  Rationale Labour party plan for crackdown on UK high street betting MGM underperformance due to headline risk of Macau business Bulk of MGM business US-based and supported by lower oil prices Action Buy: MGM risk (5yr CDS) Sell: Ladbrokes risk (5yr CDS) Result Election uncertainty fears weigh on Ladbrokes MGM outperforms; target reached Trade closed at a profit Trade entered Trade closed Source: Kames Capital and Bloomberg as at 31 July 2015. For illustrative purposes only.

Credit module Long 10yr iTraxx/short 5yr iTraxx  CDS curve flattener trade The difference between 10yr and 5yr credit spreads widened materially over 2013 10yr spreads looked cheap relative to 5yr spreads - curve expected to flatten Action: Long risk 10yr iTraxx Main Short risk 5yr iTraxx Main Result Spread between the two assets narrowed Closed the trade profitably in August 2014 Closed trade @ 41bps Entered trade @ 47bps Source: Kames Capital and Bloomberg as at 25 February 2015. For illustrative purposes only.

Credit & Asset Allocation module Long investment grade/short high yield  Rationale Euro IG underperformed HY after the ECB QE announcement Any addition of IG bonds into QE basket would be supportive Action Trade entry attractive on 6 July Long IG risk (sell iTraxx Main protection) Short HY risk (buy iTraxx Xover protection) Trade implemented on beta-weighted basis Result Post-Greek election IG recovered relative to HY Spread compression added value to fund – trade closed at a profit Source: Bloomberg and Kames Capital as at 14 October 2015. Xover spread beta-weight x 0.2.

Kames Absolute Return Bond Global Fund Summary Proven fixed income investment process and absolute return capability Low-risk investment solutions designed to deliver stable profiles of returns Low correlation to underlying bond markets Managed by experienced and award-winning fixed income team Sauren fondsmanager-rating has been awarded to David Roberts, Head of Fixed Income. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Important information This document is not intended for retail distribution and is directed only at investment professionals. It should not be distributed to, or relied upon by, private investors. All data in this presentation is sourced to Kames Capital unless otherwise stated. The views expressed in this document represent our understanding of the current and historical positions of the market. They should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. The Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund and The Kames Absolute Return Bond Global Fund are registered in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Austria, Germany, Jersey, Guernsey, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, Sweden and Belgium. Not all available shareclasses are registered in every country. Please email retailsales@kamescapital.com for the list of shareclasses registered in your jurisdiction. While the investment objective of absolute return funds is to achieve a positive return in all market conditions, this is not guaranteed in any way. Investment professionals must ensure that they meet their obligations in relation to their understanding of this product and the risks involved, and the extent to which this product meets the needs of their clients. Please refer to the Full Prospectus. This document is accurate at the time of writing but can be subject to change without notification. Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc, is an umbrella type open-ended investment company with variable capital registered in the Republic of Ireland (Company Number 442106), registered office at 25-28 North Wall Quay, International Financial Services Centre, Dublin 1. Board of Directors: Andrew Bell (UK), Mike Kirby (Ireland) and Bronwyn Wright (Ireland). Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Kames Capital is an Aegon Asset Management company and includes Kames Capital plc (Company Number SC113505) and Kames Capital Management Limited (Company Number SC212159). Both are registered in Scotland and have their registered office at Kames House, 3 Lochside Crescent, Edinburgh, EH12 9SA. Kames Capital plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, (FCA reference no: 144267). Kames Capital plc is the Investment Manager and Marketing Agent for Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc. Kames Capital Management Limited is an appointed representative of Scottish Equitable plc (Company Number SC144517), an Aegon company, whose registered office is 1 Lochside Crescent, Edinburgh Park, Edinburgh, EH12 9SE (PRA/FCA reference no: 165548). For Investors in Sweden - Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc is a UCITS collective investment scheme notified for sale in Sweden. The Prospectus, Supplement and Key Investor Information for Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc are available free of charge from MFEX Mutual Funds Exchange AB, Grev Turegatan 19, Box 5378, SE- 102 49 Stockholm, Sweden, Tel : +46 (0)8-55 90 36 85 FPID: 2016/22819