How to Deter Migration [to the United States] David Leblang University of Virginia leblang@virginia.edu

Motivation Understand drivers (push factors) of migration. Role of statecraft on the part of destination: how do potential destinations decrease migration “Deter” is an unfortunate word here: what I mean is: Alter preferences by making homeland more attractive (decrease push) Alter preferences by making alternative destinations more attractive Make destination less attractive (deterrence) Challenges: big data and modeling challenges - So presentation will be three sets of findings

Question 1: Why do People Leave (or think about leaving? Emigration out of non-OECD countries (with exception of Chile, Mexico, S. Korea, & Israel Two sources IAB (Institute for Employment Research), Brucker, Capuano, & Marfouk (2013): use census/population registers in 20 receiving (OECD) countries. 1980-2010, 5-year periods. World Bank (Global Bilateral Migration Dataset) Özden, C. Parsons, M. Schiff and T. L. Walmsley (2011). 225x225 matrix based on UN population registers. Decades from 1960-2000, updated using WB remittance database. Emigration rate=(immigrants in origin by country of origin)/population in country of origin less migrants)

Also measure migration intention Gallup World Poll Approx 1000 respondents in 180 countries. 2006-2016 “In the next five years do you plan to move to a foreign country?” Important to be aware that intention does not necessarily mean that people move.

Measuring Immigration to the US Most (if not all) immigration data codes the number of people being granted citizenship or a work permit. United States USCIS & DHS collect data on Adjustments of Status New Arrivals Pre-DHS: ICPSR; Post-DHS: FOIA Available by month so can adjust by fiscal year

Question 2: Modeling Migration to the United States Western Hemisphere origin countries (excluding Canada) 1990-2015 Poisson models with origin fixed effects Focus on new arrivals Controls: Origin GDP/US GDP; Social networks in US; poverty; education level; distance to US; landlocked; island. US variables: Unemployment, economic growth, housing starts, jobs in construction sector Focus on shocks: civil war; natural disaster; economic crisis

What of Alternative Destinations? Challenge: not all emigrants from WH go to the United States. However, we don’t have good (or comparable) data on emigration flows into other WH countries or to the rest of the world. Need to construct a measure comparable to trade frictions: multilateral resistance term which shows the relative attractiveness of alternative destinations. Problem: what are the appropriate or relevant alternatives? How should we weigh them? Simple but imperfect solution: look at Mexico as alternative

Mexico as alternative destination

One more model: Central America Homicides increase outmigration US deportations and US sales of small arms increase homicides How to combine these models??

Conclusion Environmental and economic shocks increase migration to the US from WH Lots to do Multilateral Resistance Think about aid, trade, investment as efforts to mitigate shocks Need to identify timing of policy levers