The Future for Scotland… Second Time Round … Are We Ready To Be Independent ? By Stevie shillinglaw

Aims & objectives … Collectively, our package is asking “What is the future for Scotland”. We are aiming to shine a light on four aspects of Scotland’s life and culture. From the future of the film industry and the future of live music and nightlife to the future for sporting achievements and the constitution, our magazine show will inform, educate and stimulate debate with a mix of interviews, presenter led information and views of the general public and experts. BBC Radio Scotland with was chosen as the natural home for a speech based magazine show. Political, Social, Sporting and Cultural.

background … In 2014, Scotland held a referendum on becoming an independent country. The result was close, with 45% supporting Yes and 55% in favour of remaining in the UK. One of main points of the ‘Better Together’ campaign was Scotland’s continued membership of the EU guaranteed by remaining in the UK. This has changed since the UK wide EU referendum – in which Scotland voted 62% in favour of remaining within the EU compared to 52% from the rest of UK who voted to leave. Now as the First Minister has announced plans for a second referendum on Scottish Independence – I’m asking… “Second Time Round, Are We Ready To Be Independent”.

How will this question be answered? I will focus on two of the main factors that seem to shape the debate on Scottish Independence. The Political Case – Scotland has one Conservative MP and did not vote to Leave the EU, should Scotland now be forced to leave the EU against its will. If the will of the people must be respected in regards to upholding the EU referendum result in the UK, surely the will of the people must be respected in Scotland. The Economic Case – One of uncertainties raised in the 2014 referendum was the question of the currency an independent Scotland would use. The success of the economy in an independent Scotland is one of the most prominent issues framing the debate. This package will consider if the economic case for independence is stronger or considering the falling oil revenues is the economic case weaker?

The political case … A recent poll (09.03.2017) demonstrates there is a clear majority of Scots who support membership of the European Union. MORI conducted a new Scottish poll for STV, showing a 50%-50% tie between YES and NO were there to be a second independence referendum. This is the first poll not to show NO ahead for some time – there were a couple of snap polls immediately after the EU referendum that showed YES ahead, but apart from that you need to go back to February 2016. MORI also asked whether people thought an independent Scotland should be a member of the EU – 48% thought it should be, 27% thought it should be a member of the single market but not the EU, 17% supported neither.

The political case … John Harris of The Guardian; “Politics in England has become mean, callous and small-state, marginalising the values of most Scots. Who wouldn’t want to leave that behind?” When launching the second referendum on Independence, The First Minister noted; “The UK government has not moved even an inch in pursuit of compromise and agreement. Our efforts at compromise have instead been met with a brick wall of intransigence,”

The economic case Positive factors Negative factors Scotland’s first minister will also argue that her plan involves the best of all worlds: retaining free and unhindered access to the rest of the UK while also remaining part of the EU single market. US banks looking for a new home after Brexit might find Edinburgh attractive. Scotland could mitigate these problems – in the short term at least – by adopting a more liberal approach to immigration than the rest of the UK. Having its own currency and setting its own interest rates would make it easier for Scotland to adjust to gyrations in the oil price and to cope with its budget deficit. The 2014 campaign threw up serious weaknesses in the economic case for independence and these will need to be addressed. The most obvious issue is that the oil price has halved since the 2014 poll, making Scotland’s public finances after independence look far less rosy. An ageing population means demands on the public finances are certain to increase in the years ahead. Another key decision for Sturgeon is whether an independent Scotland should have its own currency, shadow the pound or – assuming it is allowed to become an EU member – sign up to join the euro

the story arc … The Introduction (Beginning) will set the scene with a quick recap on the current political climate and the referendum that have led Scotland’s parliament and the Scottish Government to their current position. The Middle will expose the for and against arguments of both the Political & Economic cases. Interviews with political and cultural figures. The End – Will lead listeners to the compromised point of Yes, Scotland is ready to be independent but it will also expose the many risks involved.

Content, style and tone… The package will be made in keeping with the style, tone and production standards of BBC Radio Scotland. There will be a mix of vox – pops of public opinion, interviews with politicians from both sides of the debate and an interview with an academic or cultural figure. The tone will be semi – formal. There will be more serious elements such as interviews with political figures, but this will be counterbalanced with light hearted views from members of the public. There will be minimal use of bed music, but SFX will be used in the background (Bagpipes, Protests, quotes from notable figures). Listeners will be guided through the main arguments of the political and economic cases and given opinion from both sides of the argument, but the package aims to stimulate debate. The listener will be invited to draw their own conclusions.

Station style & Target audience …

justification … A magazine show which looks at the future of Scotland needs to address the issue of independence. Considering the day to day developments of both the EU and UK constitutional questions – independence is a developing story constantly generating headlines. Any serious attempt to give insight to the future of Scotland, would need to consider the current political situation. My package takes in to account the remit of BBC Radio Scotland and addresses each point. “The remit of BBC Radio Scotland is to be a speech-led service for listeners seeking programmes about the life, culture and affairs of Scotland […] In addition to local and national concerns, output should also address matters of UK and international significance from a Scottish perspective”

Potential interviews I have interviewed Edinburgh City Councillor (SNP) Gavin Barrie – Economy Convener previously and he has agreed to take part. MSP Ross Greer (Green Party) – Non SNP Independence Supporter. Yes Edinburgh North & Leith Hustings 28/03/17. Professor Christina Boswell - Director of Research, School of Social & Political Science – University of Edinburgh. Professor Laura Cram - Professor of European Politics – University of Edinburgh. Adam Tominks – MSP Conservative - Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Communities, Social Security, the Constitution and Equalities. Elaine C Smith – Actress & Cultural Figure.

influences … In developing this package, I have been influenced by BBC Radio Scotland, BBC Radio 4 & 5Live. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08hlbsd - Faking It - Trump and The Media BBCR4. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08hl5gj - Westminster Hour - BBCR4. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08h0877 - Kaye Adams - BBC Radio Scotland. And also the Apolitical Podcast Hub; http://www.apoliticalpodcast.com/ - Scottish Political Podcast.

Sources … http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/nicola-sturgeon-fires-starting-gun-on-second-scottish-independence-referendum https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-economy-independence-referendum-oil-price https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/04/hard-brexit-case-scottish-independence-second-referendum http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/category/scotland http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/our_work/services/radio/service_licences/bbc_radio_scotland.html http://www.pol.ed.ac.uk/people/academic_staff/ http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html http://www.arcofprosperity.org/thatcher-on-scottish-independence/ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/may-rejects-sturgeons-demand-for-second-independence-vote