Climate change of Tunisia BOULAKBECH Riadh

Plan Introduction Climate of Tunisa Climate projections of Tunisia Impact study of climate change

Introduction With opening on the Mediterranean Sea on the North and East, and a long coastline of 1300 km, the key position of Tunisia between the tempered regions of the Northern Hemisphere and the inter-tropical regions grant its climate a special variability. Such a characteristic makes Tunisia a country particularly vulnerable to Climate Change (Vicente-Serrano, 2006).

Climate of Tunisa Tunisia's climate is hot-summer Mediterranean climate (Csa) in the north, where winters are mild with moderate rainfall and summers are hot and dry. Temperatures in July and August can exceed 40 °C when the tropical continental air mass of the desert reaches the whole Tunisia. Winters are mild with temperatures rarely exceeding 20 °C The south of the country is desert

Annual Precipitation and Temperature

Annual precipitation trends

Annual temperature trends

Extreme events: Maximum period of drought

Hot days

Cold days

Aridity

Summary: Temperature: Temperatures have increased significantly at the annual and seasonal scales. hot extremes increased and cold extremes decreased. Precipitation: General trend towards decreasing annual precipitation. Dry extremes have become more common especially in southern Tunisia. Drought: The drought has become longer, more frequent and more intense. Aridity: The increase of the temperature and the decrease of precipitations cause a decrease of the aridity index which results in a migration of the aridity towards the north of Tunisia.

Climate projections of Tunisia Dynamical Downscaling: LDAS-TUNISIA PROJECT The National Institute of Meteorology (INM) is partner in the project of «Improvement of water resources management and adaptation to climate change in TUNISIA » called « LDAS-TUNISIA ». This project is coordinated by the North African Center for Remote (CRTEAN) and it aims to: Monitoring the availability of water resources Monitoring the agricultural activities using evapotranspiration model Mapping, forecasting and monitoring floods Monitoring the phenomenon of drought Establishing a mechanism for data dissemination

The A1B scenario describes a future world in which economic growth will be very rapid, the world population will reach a maximum in the middle of the century and then decline, and new, more efficient technologies will be introduced rapidly. It's a median scenario. The climatology used in this work is the period 1961-1990 which will constitute the historical period of reference of the climate. Future studies will use a much more recent climatology currently used by the INM.

Temperture anomalie 2050 Precipitation index 2050 Horizon 2050 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 -0,5 Temperture anomalie 2050 Precipitation index 2050

Martonne Aridity index evolution

conclusion precipitation averages will experience a larger decrease. This decrease is robust and significant. The decrease varies between 10% and 35% according to the overall average can reach 60% on certain regions according to some models. Average temperatures across the country will increase significantly An increase in average temperature between 1.9 ° C and 2.9 ° C (overall average of eight models). This increase is greater for some models and increases along an east / west axis.

Impacts of climate change on durum wheat yield Future performance (in%) compared to the average for the period 1986-2014Future performance (in%) compared to the average for the period 1986-2014   Temperature Precipitation Performance Horizon 2050 +1.4 °C -7 % -6.6 % Horizon 2100 +3.5 °C -24 % -37 %

Future variation of olive production

references Institut National de la Météorologie (INM) :Direction de recherche et développement Haythem Belghrissi, Etude des tendances et des projections climatiques en Tunisie, 2014 Abdel Hafez, S. A., Ainer, N. G. and Eid, H. M., 2003. Climate Change Impacts on Delta Crop Productivity, water and agricultural land. J. Agric.Sci. Mansoura Univ. Special Issue, Scientific Symposium on “Problems of Soils and Water in Dakahlia and Damietta Governorates”. ISSN 1110-0346 Pp. 15-26 March 18, 2003 Abdulla, F., Eshtawi, T. & Assaf, H. 2009. Assessment of the impact of potential climate change on the water balance of a semi-arid watershed. Water Resour. Manage., 23: 2051-2068 Climate change impacts on North African countries and on some Tunisian economic sectors, LEILA RADHOUANE, 2013 http://www.tunisia-live.net/2015/12/05/environment/ http://science.time.com/2014/01/29/tunisia-recognizes-climate-change-in-its-constitution/