Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Peter Chen Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department ICSC-10 for THORPEX Geneva 3 -5 October 2012

SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services “Spending on improving weather forecasting and sharing data have high returns.” Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters – The Economics of Effective Preveniton,WB, UN (2011)

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011) WMO Strategic Priorities Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Development Climate change adaptation

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO SWFDP Main Goals Improve Severe Weather Forecasting Improve lead-time of Warnings Improve interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil protection authorities SWFDP Regional Subprojects Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion) Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC Fiji) Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries) Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with Disaster Management, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project; NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services. Global Centers RSMC Pretoria NMCs Disaster Management Centres 5

SWFDP – Southern Africa 16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF RSMC Pretoria Webportal Since 2006 Example: SWFDP-Southern Africa web site (RSMC Pretoria) 6

SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

SWFDP Southwest Pacific - 9 Island States, RSMC Wellington, RSMC Nadi - ECMWF, Met Office UK, NWS/USA, ABoM RSMC Wellington Since 2009

SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria (status/progress) WMO Focus on: Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Dry spells Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains: 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) MSG satellite products (EUMETSat) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Started September 2011

SWFDP – Eastern Africa 6 countries, RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar-es-Salaam, Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF, DWD RFSC Dar-es-Salaam since 2011 RSMCNairobi Since 2011

Proposed SWFDP – Southeast Asia WMO SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progress Project develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/documents/Report_SWFDP-SeA_IP_Sep2010.pdf) Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell) Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E and 140°E Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA (NWP guidance material, satellite products) Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi (TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support) NMCs: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam Start-up awaiting establishment of RFSC Ha Noi (2013?)

SWFDP – Bay of Bengal Focus: Coastal communities and activities Bangladesh India Maldives Myanmar Sri Lanka Thailand Bhutan (later) Nepal (later) Afghanistan (later) Pakistan (later) 40E – 125 E 50 N – 10 S Severe Weather from TCs, severe thunderstorms and monsoon: Heavy precipitation, Strong winds Large waves / swell, Storm Surge Improved severe weather forecasting (GDPFS), warning services to disaster management (PWS) and with agriculture (AgMet)

SWFDP links and synergies General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.) Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Specific Comm. Systems Flash Flood Guidance HWR Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Regional Centre Global Centres RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products TC Guidance Products (risk/probability) GDPFS National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) PWS WWRP Research Projects Satellite Imagery and Tools WMO SP SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public E-mail; etc. Radio; TV Media Specific Communication Systems Disaster Management and Civil Protection

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) High-impact focus (flash-flooding, damaging winds, near-shore damaging waves, landslides); Increase synergy with Tropical Cyclone Programme Forecast Verification (guidance, forecasts, warnings) Phase-in other developments (“cascade” to applications, promising R&D outputs from WWRP) Training for forecasters, PWS focal points, and disaster managers Country-specific implementation plans S&T gaps: Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations Internet-based

SWFDP – improving warning services A severe weather warnings programme at every NMHSs supported by the World Weather Watch System Warning services gaps: Relations with disaster management, civil protection, media Warning criteria, SoP, reach, quality assurance Inadequate monitoring, no objective verification No severe weather warnings programme no

SWFDP – Cooperating with Research … incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations … WWRP GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps; 48-hour delay from real-time) Forecast Verification Research (e.g. SWFDP-Eastern Africa) Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h; possibly SWFDP-SeAsia, SWFDP-Ern Africa) Sub-seasonal forecasting (e.g. SWFDP-Eastern Africa) Public weather services & DRR, with SERA

GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA) Southern Africa Eastern Africa Southwest Pacific Southeast Asia

SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services Thank you! DPFS: Peter Chen Alice Soares PWS: Haleh Kootval Sam Muchemi AgMet: Robert Stefanski Jose Camacho