Objectively Chosen Analog Years

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Presentation transcript:

Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years The Technique 2012-13 Verification Analogs for Upcoming Winter The Forecast

Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far…

Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year …

Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

Climate Indices PNA (Pacific North American Index) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Jones NAO EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) TNH ONI NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index) CAR (Caribbean Index) MEI BEST Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Nino 3+4 Nino 4 Pacific Warm Pool Tropical Pacific SST EOF TNA TSA WHWP WP (West Pacific Index) QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) NP (North Pacific Index) NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular momentum

Not just the index… But sensible weather… IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry

Automate the Process Compare each previous year to this year… Compute a “Goodness of Fit” number… Sort “Goodness of Fit”… Print/Save results… Do this for multiple indices… Find “Consensus” analog years

Last Year’s

2012/13 Forecast Summary Near Near Above Near Near Near Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Near Above Near Near Near Temp: Below Above Below Near Above Near Precip:

2012/13 Forecast Summary Near Near Above Near Near Near Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Near Above Near Near Near Temp: Below Above Below Near Above Near Precip: Observed: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Below Near Above Near Above Temp: Above Below Below Below Near Above Precip:

P P P 2012/13 Forecast Summary Near Near Above Near Near Near Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley P P Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Near Above Near Near Near Temp: P Below Above Below Near Above Near Precip: Observed: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Near Below Near Above Near Above Temp: Above Below Below Below Near Above Precip:

3 “Hits” 6 One-category errors 3 Two-category errors 2012/13 Verification 3 “Hits” 6 One-category errors 3 Two-category errors

On to Next Winter…

On to Next Winter…

On to Next Winter…

Last Year’s Indices CPC SOI, MEI, ONI, BOM SOI, Nino 3.4 Anom, Nino 3 Temps, Nino 4 Temps, PNA, PDO, NAO, AO, WP, and the QBO.

This Year’s Indices CPC SOI MEI ONI PDO

Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09

Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06

Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08

Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08 Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07

Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08 Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07 Jim Little: 1961/62 2007/08 1967/68 1996/97 1964/65 2001/02

Choosing Analogs 1981/82 1959/60 1985/86 1985/86 1961/62 1988/89 Art or Science? 1959/60 1961/62 1962/63 1964/65 1967/68 1967/68 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1985/86 1985/86 1988/89 1990/91 1996/97 1996/97 2001/02 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2007/08 2008/09

Composites November…

Composites December…

Composites January…

Composites February…

Composites March…

2013/14 Forecast Summary Below Near Near Near Below Near Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Temp: Precip:

Cascades

2013/14 Forecast Summary Below Below Near Near Near Below Climate Division 4 – North Cascades Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Below Below Near Near Near Below Temp: Near Above Above Below Above Above Precip:

Government Camp Snow November 21 13 12 11 10 8 6 1 22 28 18 14 24 26 23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 1st 1961 21 13 12 11 10 8 6 1964 1 22 28 18 14 1967 24 1996 26 29 30 34 2001 7 M 27 48 2007 15 16 36 Snow Depth in Inches Thanksgiving – Nov 28th

5 out of 6 years: Government Camp Snow November Thanksgiving or 23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 1st 1961 21 13 12 11 10 8 6 1964 1 22 28 18 14 1967 24 1996 26 29 30 34 2001 7 M 27 48 2007 15 16 36 5 out of 6 years: Thanksgiving or Thanksgiving Weekend Opening Snow Depth in Inches Thanksgiving – Nov 28th

Government Camp Snow December 28 26 31 40 36 30 29 27 6 4 10 16 22 33 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st 1961 28 26 31 40 36 30 29 27 1964 6 4 10 16 22 33 1967 20 12 9 3 2 1 1996 53 65 64 67 68 71 52 50 2001 56 54 48 2007 43 59 61 74 70 Snow Depth in Inches

Questions? Below Near Near Near Below Near Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Temp: Precip: jim@mail.wxnorthwest.com http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/2013 Winter Forecast Graphics

Questions? Below Near Near Near Below Near Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Temp: Precip: jim@mail.wxnorthwest.com http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/2013 Winter Forecast Graphics

Questions? Below Near Near Near Below Near Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Temp: Precip: jim@mail.wxnorthwest.com http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/2013 Winter Forecast Graphics