Unit 7: Cognition AP Psychology Essential Task 7-3:  Identify decision making techniques (compensatory models, representativeness heuristics, and availability heuristics) as well as factors that influence decision making (overconfidence, confirmation bias, belief bias, belief perseverance, and hindsight bias)  Logo Green is R=8 G=138 B=76 Blue is R= 0 G=110 B=184 Border Grey is R=74 G=69 B=64

Cognition Unit 6: We are here Algorithms Heuristics Biological Factors Representativeness Heuristic Compensatory Models Problem Solving Techniques Decision Making Techniques Availability Heuristic Unit 6: Cognition Obstacles to Problem Solving We are here Obstacles to Decision Making Biological Factors Acquisition and use of Language Memory Information Processing Model Encoding Storage Retrieval Cognitive Factors Cultural Factors

Essential Task 7-3: Problems vs. Decisions Outline Problems vs. Decisions Identify decision making techniques representativeness heuristics availability heuristics compensatory models Factors that influence decision making Overconfidence confirmation bias belief bias belief perseverance hindsight bias

Problems and Decisions Problem solving : the task is to come up with new solutions Decision making: a type of problem solving in which we already know the possible options.

Heuristics in Decision Making Short-cuts learned from experience, that people use to make decisions typically when facing complex problems or incomplete information Assumptions Two Types Availability Heuristic Representativeness Heuristic

Representativeness Heuristic You make a decision based upon how much something represents, or matches up, with characteristics from your schema, or the typical case. Good School It matches my ‘party school’ schema so I decide it is bad school. Bad School School

Representativeness Heuristic Decide where each man is from.

Representativeness Heuristic Susan is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but with little interest in people, or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, she has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail. Is Susan a Librarian, a Teacher, or a Lawyer?

Truth or Lie Something that happened to me during grade school. My favorite meal My earliest memory My favorite vacation trip A high point of my high school days The most influential person in my life My favorite teacher The part of the country in which I’d most like to live – A surprising talent that I have Something interesting about a member of my family –

Availability Heuristic Operates when we make decisions on how available information is. The faster people can remember an instance of some event, the more they expect it to occur.

Availability Heuristic in Action Which household chores do you do more frequently than your partner? (e.g. washing dishes, taking out the trash, etc.) - wives report 16/20 chores - husbands report 16/20 chores Ross and Sicoly (1979) Why? Availability! - I remember lots of instances of taking out the trash, washing dishes, but I do not remember lots of instances where my husband did those things.

Availability Heuristic Why does our availability heuristic lead us astray? --Whatever increases the ease of retrieving information increases its perceived availability. How is retrieval facilitated? How recently we have heard about the event. How distinct it is.

Exaggerated Fear The opposite of having overconfidence is having an exaggerated fear about what may happen. Such fears may be unfounded. The 9/11 attacks led to a 20% decline in air travel due to fear. 800 more people would die if they drove just half those miles

Which causes more deaths per 100,000? All accidents (35.7) vs. strokes (57.4) Suicide (10.4) vs. blood poisoning (11.3) Homicide (7.1) vs. diabetes (25.1) Motor vehicle accidents (15.7) vs. colorectal cancer (18.9) Drowning (1.1) vs. leukemia (7.8)

Which City has the Higher Crime Index? Detroit or Myrtle Beach, SC Manhattan or Gary, India Boston or Flint, MI Montreal or Hot Springs San Francisco or Durham, NC

Answers Detroit (crime index = 531) vs. Myrtle Beach (597) Manhattan (152) vs. Gary (544) Boston (223) vs. Flint (329) Montreal (181) vs. Hot Springs (201) San Francisco (176) vs. Durham (216)

Overconfidence Overconfidence is a tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments. At a stock market, both the seller and the buyer may be confident about their decisions on a stock. OBJECTIVE 6| Describe the drawbacks and advantages of overconfidence in decision making.

Confirmation Bias While we make a decision, we actively look for information that confirms our ideas

Belief Bias The tendency of one’s preexisting beliefs to distort logical reasoning by making invalid conclusions. Democrats support free speech Dictators are not democrats Dictators do not support free speech. God is love. Love is blind Ray Charles is blind. Ray Charles is God. Anonymous graffiti OBJECTIVE 8| Explain how our preexisting beliefs can distort our logic. We more easily see the illogic of conclusions that run counter to our beliefs than those that agree with our beliefs.

Belief Perseverance Belief perseverance is the tendency to cling to our beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. OBJECTIVE 9| Describe the remedy for belief perseverance phenomenon.

Bias After the Process Hindsight Bias a tendency to think that one would have known actual events were coming before they happened, had one been present then or had reason to pay attention. a.k.a Monday morning quarterback. ‘I-knew-it-all-along’ effect, reflecting a common response to surprise.

Decision Making and Judgements Decision making/judgments are special cases of problem solving in which possible solutions or choices are already known Logical decision making Compensatory model Rational decision-making model in which choices are systematically evaluated on various criteria Example: buying a car Good when issues are well-defined