Using climate outlooks to adapt to climate change Gina Ziervogel Stockholm Environment Institute

Outline Climate change/climate variability Climate outlooks as a means of adaptation to climate variability Case study: Lesotho Conclusion

Climate change and climate variability Long-term climate change Will vulnerable groups be able to cope? How do we assess that? Climate variability Ability to factor in variability makes people more resilient

Propositions climate variability = coping range/resilience climate variability = climate awareness climate extremes = signal impacts climate extremes = institutional reforms

Learning Learning to cope with climate variability = adapt to longer term climate change? Can we expect all groups to adapt to medium-term variability?

Climate outlooks Seasonal forecasts Inter-annual forecasts Decadel forecasts Characteristics Probabilistic Limited spatial and temporal scale

Climate outlooks as medium-term information source Outlooks fit into annual planning horizons Not days, not centuries time Climate outlooks Weather forecasts Climate change scenarios

Case study: Lesotho Smallholder farmers Climate impacts on livelihoods Rain-fed agriculture Livestock Variable climate Climate impacts on livelihoods Direct Crops Health Natural resources Indirect Education Social networks

Participatory role-play exercise Small groups Seasonal forecast applications Decisions recorded for a series of ‘years’

Seasonal forecast applications Findings Needs to be tried and tested Attribute different priorities to different forecasts Personal communication facilitates better understanding of the forecast Number of constraints to forecast use A way of adapting to seasonal variation

Impact of seasonal forecasts on livelihoods May encourage diversification which decreases risk Enables maximisation of good years May not be used but can still promote awareness of expected variability

Planning cycle Daily – weather, decision making Annual – seasonal forecasts, multi-year Climate change – ‘new’ scenarios every 2-5 years Micro-macro interaction Integrating different spatial and temporal scales

Lessons to be learned for climate change adaptation Only one chance with longer-term change Can’t expect people to adapt quickly and easily to long-term change Climate variability not always = increased coping or increased use of climate info Climate extremes might not prompt adaptation that benefits the vulnerable

Conclusion Outlooks promote awareness of longer-term adaptation Don’t have good adaptation scenarios What do perfect outlooks teach us?