Associate Research Professor of Physical Oceanography

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Presentation transcript:

Associate Research Professor of Physical Oceanography Sea Level Variations & Sea Level Rise (SLR) Dr. Tarek M. El-Geziry Associate Research Professor of Physical Oceanography Laboratory of Physical Oceanography Division of Marine Environment National Institute of Oceanography & Fisheries (NIOF), Egypt

Summary of Today’s Talk The Sea Level, is it Tides? Distances & Declinations Tidal Constituents Sea Level Variations BREAK Climate Driving Forces Sea Level Rise (SLR) Risk Management

The Sea Level, is it Tides? At any location, the observed sea level is the sum of two different components: the astronomical tides (celestial impact) and the residual sea level (surge); in addition to the Mean Sea Level (MSL).

The Sea Level, is it Tides?

Distances and Declinations

It takes 365 ¼ days for the Earth to move from one perihelion to another, i.e. one cycle every year 1. The Earth-Sun System At perihelion phase, the tidal generating force is larger than average. This means greater tidal ranges are observed. At aphelion phase, the reverse is true. (http://www.astronomygcse.co.uk)

2. The Earth-Moon System The perigee phase has the greater effect on the observed tidal range than the apogee phase. From a perigee to another, the moon revolves in 29.55 days, i.e. a lunar month. (https://www.metahistory.org)

It takes the moon about 1 month (29 ½ days) to go through the phases

2. The Earth-Moon System The Lunar Day (http://www.oc.nps.edu/nom/day1/partc.html)

(http://www. signsinlife. com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/declination (http://www.signsinlife.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/declination.jpg)

The plane of the moon’s orbit declines 5 The plane of the moon’s orbit declines 5.14o to the Ecliptic plane system of Earth-Sun, and not to the Equator. The monthly declination of the moon will range between Earth’s declination around its axis +/- declination of the moon’s plane to the ecliptic. SO, we have the maximum monthly declination 23.452o + 5.14o = 28.592o, and the minimum monthly declination 23.452o – 5.14o = 18.312o . This results in unequal diurnal variations of tides over the Earth, and gives the three major patterns of tides.

Pinet (2005)

Tidal Harmonic Constituents Each one of the tide-generating motions, represented by a simple harmonic cosine curve, is known as a tidal component, tidal constituent, or harmonic constituent. A letter or letters and usually a subscript is used to designate each constituent. The Principal Lunar semidiurnal constituent is designated M2. M is for moon, of course, and the subscript 2 means that there are two complete tidal cycles for each astronomic cycle. Thus, this is said to be a semidiurnal constituent.

Tidal Harmonic Constituents Constituents are described by their tidal period (the time from maximum to maximum), T. The period for the S2 is 12.00 solar hours (hr.) and the period for the M2 is 12.42 solar hours. In tidal work, each constituent (cosine curve) is more often described by its speed (or frequency in degrees per hour). The cosine curve is divided into 360° (from crest to crest). The speed, n, of the constituent is 360°/T. Thus, for S2, n = 360°/12.00 = 30°/hr. For M2, n = 360°/12.4206 = 28.984°/hr.

Tidal Harmonic Constituents Principal lunar M2 100 12.42 Principal solar S2 46 12.00 Larger lunar elliptic N2 19 12.66 Luni-solar semidiurnal K2 13 11.97 Larger solar elliptic T2 12.01 Smaller solar elliptic L2 12.19 Lunar elliptic second order 2N2 12.91 Luni-solar diurnal K1 58 23.93 Principal lunar diurnal O1 42 25.82 Principal solar diurnal P1 24.07 Large lunar elliptic Q1 26.87 Smaller lunar elliptic M1 24.84 Small lunar elliptic J1 23.10 Lunar fortnightly Mf 17 327.86 Lunar monthly Mm 661.30 Solar semi-annual Ssa 2191.43 Pugh (1987)

Tidal Harmonic Constituents

Impact of the Storm Surge over Alexandria in December 2010 Residual component Impact of the Storm Surge over Alexandria in December 2010

Climate Change/Climate Variability Vulnerability

Impact of Climate Change Dry Regions Higher Air Temperature More Ocean Acidity Warmer Oceans Changes in Rainfall Patterns Accelerated Rising Sea Level Rates

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Definitions of Scenarios A1F1 Fossil Fuel Intensive Use A1B Balanced Use of Resources A1T Non Fossil Fuel A2 Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF) B1 Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives & Green Environment (MESSAGE) B2 Integrated Model to Assess Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (IPCC, 2014)

Definitions of rcps Total Control on the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Stabilization at the Present Rates of Emissions RCP6.0 More Greenhouse Gas Release but Still Under Control RCP8.5 More Greenhouse Gas Release With NO CONTROL

Relative Sea Level Rise SEA LEVEL RISE (SLR) Global Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise (SLR) Relative Sea Level Rise

Causes of the Global SLR ~50% of the GSLR since 1993 ~25% of the GSLR (1960-1993) 30% of the GSLR (1993-2009)

The Two Major Factors Acting on SLR Ice Melt More Water, More Mass  Thermal Expansion, More Volume Heat  SLR

Sea Level Budget Changes With Time 1920 - 1990 1992 - 2003 3.2 mm/yr 1.8 mm/yr 1.7 mm/yr 1.5 mm/yr 1.3 mm/yr 0.5 mm/yr Volume Mass Total Volume Mass Total (Miller, 2008)

Tools to Detect & Investigate the GSLR SEA LEVEL RISE (SLR) Tools to Detect & Investigate the GSLR Long-term Tide Gauge Data Sets Global Satellite Altimetry Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) Projections from the IPCC Scenarios

SLR from Topex & Jason-1: 1993-2007 GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE IS NOT GLOBALLY UNIFORM!! SLR is spatially highly non-uniform

(https://robertscribbler (https://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/04/rapid-acceleration-in-sea-level-rise-from-2009-through-october-2015-global-oceans-have-risen-by-5-millimeters-per-year/hansen-sea-level-rise-3/)

Projected global averaged surface warming and sea level rise till 2100, IPCC-2007 Sea Level Rise (m) Temperature Change (oC) Scenario 0.18-0.38 0.20-0.45 0.20-0.43 0.21-0.48 0.23-0.51 0.26-0.59 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.0 B1 Scenario A1T Scenario B2 Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario A1F1 Scenario

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, IPCC 2007) projected that global mean sea level will rise up to 60 cm by 2100 in response to ocean warming and glaciers melting (in the worst scenario, A1F1) This projection rose (AR5, IPCC 2014) to range between 52 and 98 cm by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and between 28–61 cm under the RCP2.6 scenario.

Causes of the Relative Sea Level Change The relative sea-level change is the change that can be measured by a tide gauge at specific coastal locations. Rise & Fall of Sea Surface Rise & Subsidence of Land Relative sea-level change is the most important measurement in terms of assessing the SLR impact on infrastructure, properties and ecosystems. Waves & Currents Climatology Erosion & Accretion The most vulnerable environments to the SLR are Deltas, estuaries, barrier islands and coral reef communities. Natural & Anthropogenic Factors

Between 1960 and the beginning of the 1990s cooling of the upper waters of the eastern Mediterranean basin, associated with increased atmospheric pressure caused reduction in the relative sea level rise.

Rate of Relative SLR (cm/yr) WHAT ABOUT EGYPT? Authors Period (years) Rate of Relative SLR (cm/yr) El-Fishawi and Fanos (1989) 23 0.290 Frihy (1992) 44 (1944- 1989) 0.200 UNSECO (2003) 0.200- 0.290 Frihy (2003) 55 (1944- 2001) 0.160 Shaker et al. (2011) 20 (1984- 2003) 0.170 Maiyza and El-Geziry (2012) 33 (1974- 2006) 0.212 Said et al. (2012) 37 (1974- 2010) 0.300

WHAT ABOUT EGYPT? (Fitzgerald et al., 2008)

WHAT ABOUT EGYPT? Predicted SLR values at several locations in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 using B1 (left) and A1FI (right) SLR scenarios (Roushdi, 2012)

WHAT ABOUT EGYPT? Predicted inundated areas at Alexandria and Port Said (with and without protection) (Roushdi, 2012) The economic loss is estimated to be ~60x109 EGP for Agricultural Lands & ~20x109 EGP for Urban Land Areas

RISK MANAGEMENT

RISK MANAGEMENT The location of the 136 port cities analysed in Nicholls et al. (2008) A key result of the study is that socio-economic changes are the most important driver of the overall increase in population and asset exposure and that climate change, land subsidence and flooding have the potential to significantly exacerbate this effect.

RISK MANAGEMENT Without adaptation, it is estimated that 0.2–4.6 % of the global population will experience flooding annually in 2100 with a SLR of 25–123 cm; global gross domestic product is expected to have a 0.3–9.3 % annual loss (Hinkel et al., 2014). Boettle et al. (2016) showed that the coastal socio-economy sector is highly affected by coastal flooding and concluded that the damage in the socio-economical sector typically increases faster than the SLR itself.

RISK MANAGEMENT Population in the LECZs (defined as lands with an elevation <10 m relative to present sea-level) (Galassi and Spada, 2014)

RISK MANAGEMENT (a) Frequencies of Surge Level Height (SLH) > 0.4 m along the East Mediterranean region in 2000–2004 and (b) maximum heights for the same area in 2004 (Krestinitis et al., 2011)

MITIGATION Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs; WMO) Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs; WMO) Calculations of Risk and Return Periods of Extremes Buckman et al. (2015) developed the Global Storm Surge Forecasting and Information System as the first-of-its-kind operational forecasting system for storm surge prediction on a global scale, taking into account tidal and extra-tropical storm events in real time. The system provides real-time water level and surge information in areas that currently lack local storm surge prediction capability.

Design lifetime (year) MITIGATION Design lifetime (year) 50 100 200 300 400 500 Design risk 0.40 0.64 0.87 0.95 0.98 0.99 Design Lifetime & Risk calculated for Alexandria, based on SL data (1974-2006) (Said et al., 2011)

Dr. Tarek Mohamed El-Geziry