Use of TIGGE Data: Cyclone NARGIS JMA Analysis (Z500) JMA WEPS Forecast (T+96h) H JMA Analysis (Surface) south-westerly wind L Blue: Analysis Field (5880gpm) Red: Perturbed Forecast (5880gpm) Green: Perturbed Forecast (1000hPa) Black (thin) : Control Forecast (1000hPa) Black (bold) : Analyzed Best Track

Use of TIGGE Data: Cyclone NARGIS JMA Analysis (Z500) JMA WEPS Forecast (T+96h) H JMA Analysis (Surface) south-westerly wind L Blue: Analysis Field (5880gpm) Red: Perturbed Forecast (5880gpm) Green: Perturbed Forecast (1000hPa) Black (thin) : Control Forecast (1000hPa) Black (bold) : Analyzed Best Track

TIGGE for Cyclone NARGIS (12Z Apr.23 2008 init T+96h) ECMWF JMA UKMO NCEP CMC CMA BOM KMA CPTEC

Steering Wind Forecasts (1000 - 300hPa, WEPS 9 days average) Landfall Not Landfall Forecasts by 25 perturbed members (+) of JMA WEPS (courtesy of Dr. Nakazawa, JMA-MRI) 4

JMA EPS-WEB: Psea Spread (12UTC 23Apr 2008 init) Initial (23 Apr) T+1day (24 Apr) T+2days (25 Apr) T+3days (26 Apr) T+4days (27 Apr) T+5days (28 Apr) T+6days (29 Apr) T+7days (30 Apr) T+8days (01 May) T+9days (02 May) From the Psea Spread of JMA One-week EPS, users can estimate the forecast uncertainty for the existence (and making landfall) of Cyclone Nargis with 9 day lead time.

JMA EPS WEB: Probability Map (12UTC 23Apr 2008 init) T+1day (24 Apr) T+2days (25 Apr) T+3days (26 Apr) T+4days (27 Apr) T+5days (28 Apr) T+6days (29 Apr) T+7days (30 Apr) T+8days (01 May) T+9days (02 May) Probability maps for daily precipitation exceeding 24 mm/day indicate potential area affected by Cyclone Nargis.

JMA EPS WEB: Probability Map (12UTC 23Apr 2008 init) T+1day (24 Apr) T+2days (25 Apr) T+3days (26 Apr) T+4days (27 Apr) T+5days (28 Apr) T+6days (29 Apr) T+7days (30 Apr) T+8days (01 May) T+9days (02 May) Probability maps for daily precipitation exceeding 48 mm/day indicate potential location of heavy precipitation caused by Cyclone Nargis.

Plume Diagram at YANGON Point (12UTC 23Apr 2008 init) “Click YANGON point on the map.” Plume Diagram shows possible timing of precipitation caused by Cyclone Nargis. Landfall of Nargis

“Plume Diagram” shows possible accumulated precipitation. Plume Diagram – Accumulated Precipitation (mm) – Perturbed run Control “Plume Diagram” shows possible accumulated precipitation.

Accumulated Precipitation (mm) B A Landfall of Nargis Period-A: All members predict little precipitation. Period-B: Many members predict precipitation. Some members predict heavy rain. (sharp gradient in accumulated precipitation)

Summary TIGGE project TIGGE is a work in progress implemented under THORPEX. EPS GPV and Cyclone Data (CXML) are provided by operational centers. Currently, users can access to the TIGGE data with a delay of 48 hours after initial time of the forecasts. A case study of Myanmar Cyclone Nargis from EPS perspective By use of JMA EPS-WEB and TIGGE data, users can investigate what should be monitored to enhance disaster-prevention measures Application of EPS information can provide a long lead time to prevent or mitigate natural disasters caused by destructive tropical cyclones

Use of TIGGE Data: Typhoon FENGSHEN (T0806) MTSAT IR 2008.06.22 12UTC JMA TEPS ECMWF EPS Blue: Analysis Field (5880gpm) Red: Perturbed Forecast (5880gpm) Green: Perturbed Forecast (1000hPa) Black (thin) : Control Forecast (1000hPa) Black (bold) : Analyzed Best Track JMA WEPS “Large spread and large forecast uncertainty”

Typhoon FENGSHEN (12Z Jun.22 2008 init T+48h) ECMWF JMA UKMO NCEP CMC CMA BOM KMA CPTEC

Use of TIGGE Data: Typhoon HAGUPIT (T0814) Blue: Analysis Field (5880gpm) Red: Perturbed Forecast (5880gpm) Green: Perturbed Forecast (1000hPa) Black (thin) : Control Forecast (1000hPa) Black (bold) : Analyzed Best Track

Typhoon HAGUPIT (12Z Sep.20 2008 init T+48h) ECMWF JMA UKMO NCEP CMC CMA BOM KMA CPTEC

Use of TIGGE Data: Typhoon SINLAKU (T0813) JMA TEPS ECMWF EPS JMA WEPS Blue: Analysis Field (5880gpm) Red: Perturbed Forecast (5880gpm) Green: Perturbed Forecast (1000hPa) Black (thin) : Control Forecast (1000hPa) Black (bold) : Analyzed Best Track “Large spread and large forecast uncertainty”

Typhoon SINLAKU (12Z Sep.09 2008 init T+72h) ECMWF JMA UKMO NCEP CMC CMA BOM KMA CPTEC

Thank you for your kind attention. “Questions or Comments?”

Global Interactive Forecasting System (GIFS) Numerical Analysis and Prediction System Observation System Assimilation Numerical Prediction Forecasts Observational Data Initial Condition Targeted Observation Sensitivity Analysis GIFS aims to improve the accuracy of forecasts in an interactive way involving observations, assimilation and prediction. One way concerns the usual process. Observational data are assimilated to make analysis fields, which are then used as the initial conditions for numerical weather prediction to produce forecasts. The other way consists of sensitivity analysis and targeted observation. The sensitivity of error growth in the forecast field to the initial condition at a certain future time is evaluated in this sensitivity analysis. Observations conducted at that time in a high-sensitivity area will largely contribute to the improvement of forecast accuracy. This observation strategy is called targeted observation.

JMA EPS-WEB (Visualized EPS Products) 1 2 3

Contents: Probability Map Probability map indicate potential locations of extremely severe weather events exceeding a certain threshold. Probability of exceeding the 24mm/1day precipitation. Probability of exceeding the 48mm/1day precipitation. A A B B Area-A: High probability in 24mm/day, while less than 5% in 48mm/day. It will be relative small precipitation, and low probability for heavy precipitation. Area-B: High probability in 24mm/day and middle percentage in 48mm/day. It will be relative small precipitation. In addition, there is probability for heavy precipitation.

Contents: Probability Map

Contents: Probability Map “AllThres.” displays probability maps of 850hPa temperature anomalies, T850anm, exceeding four thresholds at the same valid time. The range of forecast time is from 1-day to 9-day with 1 day interval. T850anm > 2 K T850anm < -2 K Severe Weather Event T850anm > 4 K T850anm < -4 K T850anm > 8 K T850anm < -8 K

Probability Map - layout and threshold - “Sequence” displays selected probability maps from 1-day up to 9-day forecast. 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day 9-day

Probability Map - area - Asia WesternPacific Northern Hemi.

Probability Map - elemant - Temperature at 850hPa Daily Precipitation

“Plume Diagram” shows possible accumulated precipitation. Plume Diagram – Accumulated Precipitation (mm) – Perturbed run Control “Plume Diagram” shows possible accumulated precipitation.

Accumulated Precipitation (mm) B C Period-A: All members predict little precipitation. Period-B: Many members including control run predict precipitation. Some members predict heavy rain. (sharp gradient in accumulated precipitation) Period-C: Some member predicts precipitation, which is relatively weak compared to Period-B.