AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS EXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS AT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (Euro-Mediterranean) SCALE Antonella Sanna(2), E. Scoccimarro(1), S. Gualdi(1,2), A. Bellucci(2), M. Montesarchio(2), E. Bucchignani(2,3), A. Navarra(1,2) (1)INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology), Bologna, Italy (2)CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change), Bologna, Italy (3)CIRA - Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 1

STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION Brief models description Indexes definition Examples of results Model verification 1

MODELS DESCRIPTION “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 MODELS DESCRIPTION 2

CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the global model “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the global model GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE MODEL (historical+sresa1b prescribed gases and aerosols) ECHAM5 T159 ~ 80 km and 31 vert. levels Roeckner et al. (2003) Heat, Water and Momentum Flux Heat, Water and Momentum Flux SST and Sea-ice SST COUPLER OASIS 3 Valcke (2006) GLOBAL OCEAN & SEA-ICE MODEL OPA/ORCA2 2º ~200 km 31 vert, levels Madec et al. (1998) LOUVAIN-LA-NEUVE SEA- ICE MODEL Timmermann et al. (2005) MEDITERRANEAN SEA MODEL NEMO/MFS 1/16° ~ 7 km 71 vert. levels Oddo et al. (2009) T, S,u, v, η Coupling between atmosphere and oceans every 2 hours Coupling between global ocean and Mediterranean Sea every 8 hours 3

CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the regional model “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the regional model CMCC-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) domain. The horizontal resolution is 14 km. The simulation is forced using 6 hourly data from CMCC-MED over 1970-2100 period. 4

DATA AVAILABILITY Global model (T159, 2ox2o, 1/16°) Regional model ~ 14 km Both climate model simulations cover the period 1970-2100 5

INDEXES FOR EXTREME EVENTS CHARACTERIZATION “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 INDEXES FOR EXTREME EVENTS CHARACTERIZATION 6

“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TEMPERATURE INDEXES: 5th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN5P 10th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN10P 95th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN95P 90th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN90P Seasonal average of minimum daily temperature: MEANTN 5th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX5P 10th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX10P 95th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX95P 90th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX90P Seasonal average of maximum daily temperature: MEANTX Total number of consecutive days with maximum daily temperature exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile: WSDI90 Total number of consecutive days with minimum daily temperature is below the long term (1971-2100) 10th percentile: CSDI10 7

PRECIPITATION INDEXES: “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PRECIPITATION INDEXES: 95th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC95P 90th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC90P 5th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC5P 10th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC10P Number of days with daily precipitation exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile : R90N the long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile : R95N Number of days with daily precipitation lower than the long term (1971-2100) 10th percentile : RL10N the long term (1971-2100) 5th percentile : RL5N Averaged daily precipitation over wet days (wet day defined if precipitation is >= 1[mm/day]): SDII Maximum (not total) number of consecutive dry days (dry day defined if precipitation is < 1 [mm/day]): CDD 8

WIND INDEXES: 95th Percentile of the 10 meter wind speed: WI95P “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 WIND INDEXES: 95th Percentile of the 10 meter wind speed: WI95P 90th Percentile of the 10 meter wind speed: WI90P Number of days with daily wind speed exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile : WI90N the long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile : WI95N 95th Percentile of the 10 meter maximum wind speed: WIMAX95P 90th Percentile of the 10 meter maximum wind speed: WIMAX90P Number of days with maximum wind speed exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile : WIMAX90N the long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile : WIMAX95N 9

EXAMPLES OF RESULTS “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 EXAMPLES OF RESULTS 1010

Example: CMCC global model TX90P and trends SUMMER SEASON “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 Example: CMCC global model TX90P and trends SUMMER SEASON 1111

Example: CMCC global model PREC10P and trends SUMMER SEASON “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 Example: CMCC global model PREC10P and trends SUMMER SEASON 1212

Example: CMCC global model WI90P and trends SUMMER SEASON “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 Example: CMCC global model WI90P and trends SUMMER SEASON 1313

Example: CMCC global model WI90N and trends SUMMER SEASON “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 Example: CMCC global model WI90N and trends SUMMER SEASON 1414

MODEL VERIFICATION “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 MODEL VERIFICATION 1515

OBSERVATIONAL DATASET: SPAIN02 “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 OBSERVATIONAL DATASET: SPAIN02 Spain02 is a new high-resolution daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures gridded dataset developed for peninsular Spain and the Balearic islands. A dense network of ~2500 quality-controlled stations (~250 for temperatures) from the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) was selected to build the Spain02 grid with a regular 0.2º (aprox. 20 km) horizonal resolution spanning the period from 1950 to 2008. The gridding methodology used for precipitation is based on a two step kriging approach (binary for precipitation outcomes, and ordinary for amounts); in the case of temperatures, thin plane splines are fitted to the monthly data considering the orography (elevation) and an ordinary kriging was later applied to the residuals. 1616

PREC90P: DJF 1971-2000 “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PREC90P: DJF 1971-2000 1717

PREC90P: JJA 1971-2000 “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PREC90P: JJA 1971-2000 1818

PREC10P: DJF 1971-2000 “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PREC10P: DJF 1971-2000 1919

PREC10P: JJA 1971-2000 “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PREC10P: JJA 1971-2000 2020

TX90P: DJF 1971-2000 “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TX90P: DJF 1971-2000 2121

TX90P: JJA 1971-2000 “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TX90P: JJA 1971-2000 2222

TN10P: DJF 1971-2000 “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TN10P: DJF 1971-2000 2323

TN10P: JJA 1971-2000 “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TN10P: JJA 1971-2000 2424

The authors thank AEMET and UC for the data provided for this work (Spain02 dataset) “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011