2017 New Jersey: A Status Report James W. Hughes Ph.D.
Economic Forecaster
Dr. Kevorkian
Forecast 9 of Our Last 5 Recessions
The Business Cycle Roller Coaster Ride
The Business Cycle Roller Coaster Ride
Staring into the Economic Abyss
The Current Expansion June 2009 – September 2017 99 Months in Length
Abducted by Aliens
Average Length of Post-World War II Expansions The Current Expansion June 2009 – September 2017 99 Months in Length Average Length of Post-World War II Expansions 58 Months
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building
The Current (2009-2017) Economic Expansion
U. S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U. S U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.)
U. S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U. S U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.)
U. S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U. S U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.)
U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS
U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS 4.5 million
U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS 4.5 million 2.5 million
U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS 6.2 million 4.5 million 2.5 million
At Some Point in the Future: Here We Go Again
Albert
Our Beloved Garden State
New Jersey: The Elusive Recovery
Exiting the Great Recession
New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change 2009 - 2016
Cautiously
Cautiously Pessimistic
Where Do We Stand Today?
Battle of the Baselines
Baseline 1 – Employment Change: Recession Low to Current Change: September 2010 – December 2016 Total +267,800 jobs Private Sector +285,100 Government -17,300
Baseline 2 – Employment Change: Last Business Cycle Peak to Current Change: January 2008 – December 2016 Total +9,200 jobs Private Sector +50,800 Government -41,600
Baseline 2 – From Last Cycle Peak: Sector Detail & Average Annual Pay Sector Employment Change Annual Pay Total Private +50,800 jobs $62,421 High-Paying Sectors Manufacturing -62,200 $78,579 Information -21,400 $105,012 Finance -24,400 $107,830 Prof & Business +41,400 $85,593 Services
Baseline 2 – From Last Cycle Peak Sector Detail & Average Annual Pay Sector Employment Change Annual Pay Professional & +41,400 jobs $85,593 Business Services Prof., Sci., & Tech. +4,300 $106,404 Management of +5,900 $160,323 Companies & Ent. Administrative +31,200 $41,564 Support
Baseline 2 – From Last Cycle Peak Sector Detail & Average Annual Pay Sector Employment Change Annual Pay Total Private +50,800 jobs $62,421 Low-Paying Sectors Educ. & Health Serv. +99,600 $51,432 Leisure & Hosp. +29,800 $24,490 Other Services +5,100 $33,938
Late 20th Century Go-Go Economy Early 21st Century No-Go/Slow Go Economy
New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated) Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.
New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated) Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.
New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated) Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.
Demographic Paradigm Shift Second Half of 20th Century Demographic Paradigm Shift First Half of 21st Century
2017 Age-Defined Demographic Long Waves BABY BOOM – Redefining Maturity (b. 1946-1964) GEN Y – Millennials Redefining the Workforce/ Workplace, and Residence Place (b. 1980-2000)
Inter-Generational Workplace Tensions
The Fabled Baby Boom
The Largest Generation in U.S. History
Life Cycle Stages
Empty-Nesters Resizing in the Housing Market
2017: The Great Calamity First Boomers are turning 71 years of age All Boomers are between 53 and 71 years of age More than 1/2 of all Boomers are in their 60s
Dropped Acid
Dropping Ant-Acids
Now a Back-Seat Passenger
We Will Not Go Away Quietly!
Bye-Bye Garden State
GEN Y / Millennials (1980-2000)
At Birth: First Digital Generation
Today (2017): 17 to 37 Years of Age
We Want 24-7 LWP Environments
The Digerati
Millennial (Gen Y) Housing Buying Power
Adult Children Living With Parents (2015) Area 18-34 Year Olds Living at Home United States 34%
Adult Children Living With Parents (2015) Area 18-34 Year Olds Living at Home United States 34% New Jersey 47%
The Garden State
Adult Children Living With Parents (2015) Area 18-34 Year Olds Living at Home United States 34% New Jersey 47% Outer Exurban Counties 55%
Two Types of Adults Left The Not Yet Wed
Two Types of Adults Left The Not Yet Wed And The Nearly Dead
Lagging Infrastructure Investment