2017 New Jersey: A Status Report

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Presentation transcript:

2017 New Jersey: A Status Report James W. Hughes Ph.D.

Economic Forecaster

Dr. Kevorkian

Forecast 9 of Our Last 5 Recessions

The Business Cycle Roller Coaster Ride

The Business Cycle Roller Coaster Ride

Staring into the Economic Abyss

The Current Expansion June 2009 – September 2017 99 Months in Length

Abducted by Aliens

Average Length of Post-World War II Expansions The Current Expansion June 2009 – September 2017 99 Months in Length Average Length of Post-World War II Expansions 58 Months

Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building

The Current (2009-2017) Economic Expansion

U. S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U. S U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.)

U. S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U. S U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.)

U. S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U. S U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.)

U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS

U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS 4.5 million

U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS 4.5 million 2.5 million

U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS 6.2 million 4.5 million 2.5 million

At Some Point in the Future: Here We Go Again

Albert

Our Beloved Garden State

New Jersey: The Elusive Recovery

Exiting the Great Recession

New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change 2009 - 2016

Cautiously

Cautiously Pessimistic

Where Do We Stand Today?

Battle of the Baselines

Baseline 1 – Employment Change: Recession Low to Current Change: September 2010 – December 2016 Total +267,800 jobs Private Sector +285,100 Government -17,300

Baseline 2 – Employment Change: Last Business Cycle Peak to Current Change: January 2008 – December 2016 Total +9,200 jobs Private Sector +50,800 Government -41,600

Baseline 2 – From Last Cycle Peak: Sector Detail & Average Annual Pay Sector Employment Change Annual Pay Total Private +50,800 jobs $62,421 High-Paying Sectors Manufacturing -62,200 $78,579 Information -21,400 $105,012 Finance -24,400 $107,830 Prof & Business +41,400 $85,593 Services

Baseline 2 – From Last Cycle Peak Sector Detail & Average Annual Pay Sector Employment Change Annual Pay Professional & +41,400 jobs $85,593 Business Services Prof., Sci., & Tech. +4,300 $106,404 Management of +5,900 $160,323 Companies & Ent. Administrative +31,200 $41,564 Support

Baseline 2 – From Last Cycle Peak Sector Detail & Average Annual Pay Sector Employment Change Annual Pay Total Private +50,800 jobs $62,421 Low-Paying Sectors Educ. & Health Serv. +99,600 $51,432 Leisure & Hosp. +29,800 $24,490 Other Services +5,100 $33,938

Late 20th Century Go-Go Economy Early 21st Century No-Go/Slow Go Economy

New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated) Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated) Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated) Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

Demographic Paradigm Shift Second Half of 20th Century Demographic Paradigm Shift First Half of 21st Century

2017 Age-Defined Demographic Long Waves BABY BOOM – Redefining Maturity (b. 1946-1964) GEN Y – Millennials Redefining the Workforce/ Workplace, and Residence Place (b. 1980-2000)

Inter-Generational Workplace Tensions

The Fabled Baby Boom

The Largest Generation in U.S. History

Life Cycle Stages

Empty-Nesters Resizing in the Housing Market

2017: The Great Calamity First Boomers are turning 71 years of age All Boomers are between 53 and 71 years of age More than 1/2 of all Boomers are in their 60s

Dropped Acid

Dropping Ant-Acids

Now a Back-Seat Passenger

We Will Not Go Away Quietly!

Bye-Bye Garden State

GEN Y / Millennials (1980-2000)

At Birth: First Digital Generation

Today (2017): 17 to 37 Years of Age

We Want 24-7 LWP Environments

The Digerati

Millennial (Gen Y) Housing Buying Power

Adult Children Living With Parents (2015) Area 18-34 Year Olds Living at Home United States 34%

Adult Children Living With Parents (2015) Area 18-34 Year Olds Living at Home United States 34% New Jersey 47%

The Garden State

Adult Children Living With Parents (2015) Area 18-34 Year Olds Living at Home United States 34% New Jersey 47% Outer Exurban Counties 55%

Two Types of Adults Left The Not Yet Wed

Two Types of Adults Left The Not Yet Wed And The Nearly Dead

Lagging Infrastructure Investment