Range Cost Estimates Estimating Accuracy Trumpet

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Presentation transcript:

Range Cost Estimates Estimating Accuracy Trumpet Point estimates are almost always wrong. Range estimates show risk and uncertainty as well as most likely. Point estimate for funding is “most likely” from the range estimate. OSD AT&L now requires two estimates at each oversight review: Upper bound “will-cost” for funding Lower bound “should-cost” for baseline and program execution Concept Refinement System Development & Demonstration Production & Deployment Operations & Support Technology Development Concept Decision Design Readiness Review FRP Decision Review A B C FOC IOC Analogy Parametric Actuals Engineering Cost Estimating Techniques MDAP Process

Range Cost Estimates – In Working Estimating Accuracy Trumpet Point estimates are almost always wrong. Range estimates show risk and uncertainty as well as most likely. Point estimate for funding is “most likely” from the range estimate. OSD AT&L now requires two estimates at each oversight review: Upper bound “will-cost” for funding Lower bound “should-cost” for baseline and program execution A B C IOC FOC Concept Refinement Technology Development System Development & Demonstration Production & Deployment Operations & Support MDAP Process Design Readiness Review FRP Decision Review Concept Decision Analogy Parametric Actuals Engineering Cost Estimating Techniques