Mitigation and Adaptation How Does Adaptation Fit Into the State’s Climate Change Action Plan? Joe Sherrick PA Department of Environmental Protection “Adapting to Climate Change in PA - Planning for the Future of our Natural Resources” April 30, 2010

Climate Change Action Plan Requirement of Act 70 Final report was published on December 18, 2009 Required elements: Impacts Assessment Inventory & Projections Mitigation Opportunities Macroeconomic Assessment What about Adaptation???

Emissions Scenarios “High” emissions A2 scenario (Annual) “High” emissions A2 scenario “Low” emissions B1 scenario

Impacts Assessment Highlights Warmer and wetter Greater intensity but reduced frequency of precip Greater precipitation in winter than summer More of this in winter Less of this All GCM models project warming through 2100 for high and low emissions scenarios Committed to certain amount of warming through mid-century Average summer precipitation increases 0-5% by mid-century Average winter precipitation increases 5-10% by mid-century

Ecosystems Increasingly Stressed Wetlands and headwater streams in Pennsylvania are already compromised in their ability to provide ecosystem services Climate change will increase stresses on aquatic ecosystems Increased stream temperatures Increased flow variability Impacts will be difficult to detect because of the continuation of other stressors such as development and invasive species

Agriculture Moderate warming (1 to 3ºC)… Could increase yields of some major field crops (corn, hay, soybeans) Could harm yields of cool-temperature adapted fruits and vegetables (potatoes, and apples) Could harm American grape varieties but create opportunities for European varieties Is expected to increase dairy production costs but increase the attractiveness of PA to southern hog and poultry producers Could increase droughts; pests could be more problematic

Forests Shift in composition as the climate becomes more suited to southern species Disease, invasive species, fire risks also increase Northern Southern American Beech Loblolly Black Cherry Shortleaf Pine Eastern Hemlock Common Persimmon Red and Sugar Maple Red Mulberry White Pine Oaks & Hickories

PA Emissions & Forecast Still more than half of all generation comes from coal. Increases in renewable capacity have not kept pace with overall increases in generation.

Emissions Target & Reductions Establishes a 30% reduction target below 2000 by 2020 Recent state & federal actions combined with work plan recommendations yield 39% reduction Includes 55 specific work plan measures and recent actions in 7 broad sectors (57 measures considered) Electricity Gen/Trans/Dist Residential & Commercial (buildings) Land Use & Transportation Industry Waste Agriculture Forestry

PA Reductions from Recent and Proposed Measures

Macroeconomic Assessment Total Impact to Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (42 recommendations and recent actions) $6 billion added to GSP 65,000 additional jobs Biggest winners are Residential/Commercial and Industrial Sectors. Operation of Residential/Commercial buildings consumes ~33% of all electricity. Biggest loser is Electricity Sector, largely due to CHP economics; also new nuclear generation and CCS. EGTD loses ~8 thousand jobs; TLU loses ~7 thousand jobs.

Shifting Climate Zones

Mitigation vs. Adaptation “Technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. With respect to climate change, mitigation means implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks.” Adaptation = “Adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects in order to minimize harm or take advantage of beneficial opportunities”

Statewide Adaptation Process Initiated at Kick Off meeting on March 24 Purpose - Bring together key stakeholders to discuss the priorities and provide practical recommendations Bimonthly meetings through 2010 March 2011 presentation of white paper and emphasize the need to keep the process evolving (not once and done) Four issues will frame discussions with stakeholders: ID key areas of vulnerability and risk ID efforts to address vulnerability and risk Provide practical recommendations ID information, data gaps & opportunities for collaboration

Statewide Adaptation Process Co-chairs will lead each of the working groups Two co-chairs, ideally one from state agency and one from non-government organization Working groups: Natural resources (forests, agriculture, surface water) Public Health and Safety (public health, emergency response, economically depressed communities) Infrastructure (transportation, land use, water, energy, insurance) Tourism and Outdoor Recreation (regional tourism, hunting and fishing organizations, ski resorts)

Climate Change Adaptation Working Group Flow Diagram

Practical Recommendations Sought, Not…

Questions? Joe Sherrick Climate Change Program Manager PA DEP, Office of Energy & Technology Deployment 717.705.0372 josherrick@state.pa.us www.dep.state.pa.us Key word: Climate