Philippines HAIR Shampoo Marketing Mix Models

[3] [2] [1] OBJECTIVE Category Context Data Validation Hypothesis- For Business problems Data Validation

Data Summary Data Summary Data Period Units Periodicity/Details Volume Jan’09 to Dec’12 (in Liters) Monthly Value (in ‘000 Pesos) Price (Pesos/Liter) Distribution July’10 to Dec’12 % age Monthly /NumD and WtdD Media Jan’10 to Dec’12 Normalized 30sec TVGRPs and Spends in Pesos TVGRPS, print and Radio spends- monthly Finance Data NA Modeling Period will be from Jan’10 to Dec’12

DATA VALIDATION Data Validation Number of data points for Modeling Volume Trend Media GRP’s Promotion data

Data VALIDATION Data Summary Data Validation No. of Data points 36 data points which meet the MMM criteria of minimum 30 data points for regression Distribution data available from Jul-10 (30 data points) need to extrapolate and arrive at the data Volume Trend & Price Category Volumes slightly on the rise whereas Category value fairly stable MT & GT combined contributed to approximately 100% of the total volumes. Media Data available for all major brands(own and Competitor). TVGRPS, Print Spends, Radio Spends and TV Spends Promotion (Available only for 2011 and 2012) Data Validation

Store - Formats (MT & GT) and Brands Price ranges and penetration Category context Category Context Philippines Market Overview Shampoo Overview Store - Formats (MT & GT) and Brands Trend and seasonality Category profile Brands and Formats Market share Price ranges and penetration

Shampoo Category Overview Market overview Macro Economic Trend Population Data Summary As of 2010 more than 50% of population stay in Urban Philippines & the rate of urbanization is expected to grow at 2.3%(2010-2015 est.) Philippines middle class population is growing at 9% per year and is expected to be 1/5th of the total population by 2015. GDP per capita is at around US$4100 (PPP) in 2011 GDP growth was at around 6.6% (2012), a sharp jump from 3.9% in 2011 Inflation rate is low at 3.0% in 2012, lower than the 4.7% experienced in 2011 PDI growth has been at 5.5% in 2012 an increase from 3.3% growth in 2011 Shampoo Category Overview Philippines Volume sales growth increased in MAT-12 by 3.3% from a 2.1% growth in MAT-10 Top 8 players account for 94% of the Total Shampoo Category MT accounts for approximately 53% and GT contributes the remaining 47% in the last MAT. Share of MT in Total Trade increasing over periods.

Category: price cuts have led to a volume growth Volume in Million liters Value in million pesos Price in pesos/liters 3.3% -0.8% 1.7% 2.1% -1.5% 1.3% Price cuts along last two MATS have caused a low increase in value and moderate increase in volume for the category MAT’10-Jan’10 to Dec’10 MAT11- Jan’11 to Dec’11 MAT12- Jan’12 to Dec’12

Category: Steady TREND Growths in value and Volume Data Summary Volume growth showing a moderate increase with a decline in prices

Category by STORE FORMATS : MT contributes to 52% of total trade Value Volume Data Summary On an average in the last MAT, MT forms 53% of the Category Volume and value, whereas GT forms the remaining 47%. Share of Modern Trade in Value and volumes has rapidly picked up over years

Category by PACK type: Sachets Driving sales in Philippines Sachet on an average forms 82% of the total shampoo category whereas Bottles form the remaining 18%. Sachets driving shampoo volumes in Philippines. Bottles have been stable in MAT’12 after a decline in previous MATs Sachets are drivers for major brands as well.

Seasonality: December spikes observed across years Data Summary Volume in Liters

Major players: Volume Trend Palmolive is the market leader with 23% vol. share, H&S is the second biggest with 15.2% vol. share. Possible interaction of Vaseline with Palmolive, H&S and Rejoice. Sunsilk volumes on the decline Clear volumes picking up over the last 1 and a half year. Data Summary Significant presence of Dove since Jan’12 Palmolive volumes increasing over the last 8 months Rejoice volumes on the rise. Possibly reacting with Vaseline, Clear and Pantene Pantene volumes picking up again after a mid period decline

Sunsilk has strong competition from Palmolive and Rejoice Average Price in Pesos ( Pesos/liter) Size of circle shows the size(volume) of brand Rejoice Vaseline Cheaper than most major brands MASS

VOLUME Split By Store Format: Most Brands are bigger in MT Volume in Million litres Rejoice Vaseline and Palmolive are bigger in GT, though share in MT has been picking up over the years Rejoice growth being driven through General Trade. Pantene, H&S, Sunsilk and Clear are larger in MT Dove growing faster in MT than GT Pantene Head & Shoulders Palmolive Vaseline Dove Clear Sunsilk

VOLUME Split By Pack TYPE: ALL Brands are bigger in SACHETS Data Summary Volume in ‘000 litres All Brands have higher presence in sachets Head and Shoulders biggest in bottles whereas Palmolive biggest in sachets

VolUME Split by Variants: Unilever Brands Data Summary Vaseline declining in both Beauty and Anti-Dandruff Sunsilk’s decline caused due to a decline in Damage Repair, Anti-Dandruff and Hair fall Control. Sunsilk growing in Beauty Clear is exclusively an Anti-Dandruff Brand

Volume Split by Variants: Competitor Brands Data Summary Rejoice Driven through Beauty Shampoo Sales Rejoice growing in Anti-Dandruff too Palmolive being driven by Beauty variant as well Pantene ‘s decline caused due to beauty and Anti-dandruff Pantene growing in Damage Repair and Hair fall control after mid period decline H&S exclusively an Anti-Dandruff brand

Category Context: Vol. and VAL. SHARE Data Summary Volume Share Value Share Competitors Rejoice gaining value and volume share over MATs but the rate of growth has been less in MAT 12 Pantene losing val. and vol. share over the last MATs Palmolive have more or less maintained vol. share but lost val. share probably due to decline in price. Unilever Brands Sunsilk losing val. and value share in last MAT Dove gaining prominence in both val. And vol. share in last MAT Vaseline showing sharp declines in val. and vol. share Clear has maintained val. And vol. share over last MAT

Category context: Quarterly VOL. Share: Data Summary Sunsilk has lost share since Q1’11 Vaseline has lost share drastically since Q4-10 after initial quarters of growth Dove has grown phenomenally since Q1-2012 Clear has maintained stable quarterly share after initial periods of decline

Category context: VOL. share interactions Sunsilk Clear Vaseline Data Summary Sunsilk interacting with Rejoice and Palmolive Clear Vol MS not interacting with H&S Vaseline interacting significantly with Rejoice

MT FORMAT: vol. share and interactions Sunsilk losing share despite gain in volumes Palmolive gaining volumes as well as shares Possibility of Palmolive interacting with sunsilk Rejoice gaining significantly Pantene losing share in last MAT in MT Vaseline volumes on a decline Clear losing Share despite an increase in volume in last MAT. Data Summary

GT FORMAT: vol. share and interactions Sunsilk losing share and volumes in last MAT Palmolive gaining volumes and share in last MAT Possibility of Palmolive, Vaseline and Rejoice interacting with Sunsilk Rejoice gaining significantly over quarters Pantene losing share in last MAT in MT Vaseline volumes constantly on a decline Clear gaining in last MAT after initial loss in shares Dove gaining over quarters

Most shampoo brands getting Cheaper in MAT’12 Data Summary Average Price in pesos/liter Premium? Mass? Masstige? Most brands cutting price in MAT-12 vs. YA except Vaseline, H&S and Pantene. It is possible that consumers are shifting from brands like Vaseline which have become more expensive to relatively closely price brands given higher disposable in 2012.

Price By Store Formats: Most brands cheaper in MT Data Summary Average Price in pesos/liter for MAT’12 All major brands priced higher in GT except Clear. Sizeable price difference in MT and GT for Sunsilk, Dove and Palmolive

Sunsilk APPEARS insensitive to pricE Data Summary Correl : 0.24 Correl : -0.61 Overall Sunsilk does not appear to be price sensitive. Clear fairly sensitive to price Vaseline volumes highly sensitive to price MT and GT At the MT level, Sunsilk and Clear are moderately sensitive to price. Vaseline is highly sensitive At the GT level, Sunsilk appears to be price insensitive, whereas Clear is moderately sensitive and Vaseline Is highly sensitive Correl : -0.91

Pantene, rejoice and Palmolive price sensitive Data Summary Overall H&S appears mildly sensitive to price whereas Palmolive appears moderately sensitive. Pantene and Rejoice volumes highly sensitive to price MT and GT At the MT level, Palmolive and Rejoice are highly sensitive to price. Pantene is moderately sensitive. H&S is insensitive to price At the GT level, Palmolive appears to be price insensitive, whereas H&S and Pantene are moderately sensitive and Rejoice is highly sensitive.

RPI Interactions for unilever Brands Data Summary Sunsilk Clear Sunsilk interacting with Palmolive rpi in National and GT. Whereas in MT it is interacting with Category and Vaseline rpi Clear interacting highly with category rpi a in Nat and GT . Moderate interactions with H&S in all three formats Vaseline Interacting highly with Category, Sunsilk, Rejoice and Palmolive rpi Vaseline

Mat’12 vol. , val and price overview Latest MAT-12 vs. YA Data Summary Value % Change Volume % Change Price % Change Shampoo Category as a whole has gained volumes with a price decline Sunsilk losing val. And vol. despite price cuts Clear and Rejoice gaining volumes with price cuts Pantene and Vaseline have significantly lost value and volume due to a price increase Palmolive have gained volumes with a price cut but has lost val.

Distribution analysis

Brand Distribution trends Overall Palmolive is the best distributed within all stores Distribution of all brands on the rise over the last year except Vaseline Vaseline’s ND and WD declining rapidly Rejoice presence amongst good stores rising significantly over months MT and GT ND more or less stable for most brands in MT. WD high for all brands in MT WD for Palmolive has recovered from a declining trend over the last year in MT In GT all brands have improved distribution over the last year except Vaseline Overall decline in Vaseline distribution caused due to decline in GT Rejoice is growing in both ND and WD rapidly in GT Data Summary

Volume vs. wd and nD Data Summary Correl  ND WD -0.2 -0.1 Correl  ND WD 0.61 0.34 Sunsilk appears insensitive to distribution at the overall level . GT distribution insensitive to volume whereas MT distribution mildly sensitive Clear Appears sensitive to distribution esp. Numeric driven by its sensitivity in GT. In MT distribution does not appear to be very sensitive for Clear Vaseline appears highly distribution sensitive driven by its sensitivity to distribution in GT. In MT distribution appears mildly sensitive for Vaseline Correl  ND WD 0.94 0.86

MEDIA analysis

Media overview Data Summary In Million Pesos Data Summary Category as a whole has increased TV and Print Spends but reduced Radio Spends Sunsilk and Clear have reduced TvSpends and are not focusing much on other media Dove focusing on TV as its media driver Vaseline has reduced TV spends and increase Radio spends marginally Palmolive has almost doubled Tvspends. Also focusing on other Media H&S reducing overall media spends whereas Rejoice increasing both Tv and Radio Spends Pantene Shifting focus to TV from other media

Palmolive has highest sov TV for mat’12 IN 2012, Palmolive has the highest GRP SOV owing a doubling in Media Spends Dove gaining 7.6% SOV in its first year of Media activity Sunsilk, Clear, H&S and Vaseline have reduced TV Spends as a result have lost GRP SOV Pantene and Rejoice have lower GRPS in MAT 2012 despite increasing TV Spends

Grp Trends – unilever brands

Grp Trends – competitor brands

Hypothesis generation & summary

Hypothesis generation Competitive set based on MS correlation: Sunsilk volume decline driven by GT. Major takers appear to be Palmolive in MT and Rejoice, Palmolive in GT Clear appears to be interacting with Rejoice and not with Head & Shoulders. Possibly because of trend correlations, may not be true in reality Vaseline declining heavily, appears to be interacting with almost all brands Price: Sunsilk does appear to be lowly elastic to price in National and MT. GT appears to be moderately price elastic for sunsilk. Sunsilk expected to react on price with brands within its price range i.e. Palmolive and Rejoice Clear appears to highly elastic, possibly due to its steady decline in volumes till 2011 with price increases over months during that period . It appears to be moderately sensitive to price changes in H&S, and highly sensitive in pure category prices Vaseline seems to be highly sensitive to price. Possibility of people shifting from lower priced Vaseline to a slightly higher priced Sunsilk, Rejoice and Palmolive Distribution: Sunsilk does not appear to be distribution sensitive. Clear is moderately sensitive to distribution, whereas Vaseline appears to be highly sensitive Media: Rejoice and Palmolive media activity impact to be tested for Sunsilk as competition Head & shoulders media activity and beauty shampoo media to be tested as competition for Clear For Vaseline model Rejoice, Palmolive and Sunsilk media activity need to be validated Hypothesis generation

Sunsilk Conditioner Halo Purecat and Other Brands Variables to be tested PRICE DISTRIBUTION MEDIA Palmolive Rejoice - Sunsilk Conditioner Halo Purecat Head&Shoulders ND WD H&S Beauty Shampoo Purecat and Other Brands WD/ ND Clear Shampoo H&S and Rejoice

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