Forecast Verification Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India

Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013 Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013 Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11 member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final forecasted onset date. Y axis on each panel is in mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for 850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset date and also written at the top of each panel

NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification F/C from 16May IC F/C from 16May IC CFSv2 GFSbc

NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification F/C from 26May IC F/C from 26May IC CFSv2 GFSbc

Spatial pentad mean pattern

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 1-5 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 31May P2-lead, IC 26May P3-lead, IC 21May P4-lead, IC 16May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 1-5 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 31May P2-lead, IC 26May P3-lead, IC 21May P4-lead, IC 16May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 6-10 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 5Jun P2-lead, IC 31May P3-lead, IC 26May P4-lead, IC 21May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 6-10 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 5June P2-lead, IC 31May P3-lead, IC 26May P4-lead, IC 21May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 11-15 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 10June P2-lead, IC 5June P3-lead, IC 31May P4-lead, IC 26May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 11-15 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 10June P2-lead, IC 5June P3-lead, IC 31May P4-lead, IC 26May GFSbc CFS

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 16-20 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 16-20 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 15June P2-lead, IC 10June P3-lead, IC 5June P4-lead, IC 31May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 16-20 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 16-20 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 15June P2-lead, IC 10June P3-lead, IC 5June P4-lead, IC 31May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 21-25 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 21-25 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 20June P2-lead, IC 15June P3-lead, IC 10June P4-lead, IC 5June P

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 21-25 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 21-25 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 20June P2-lead, IC 15June P3-lead, IC 10June P4-lead, IC 5June P

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 26-30June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 26-30 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 25June P2-lead, IC 20June P3-lead, IC 15June P4-lead, IC 10June

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 26-30June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 26-30 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 25June P2-lead, IC 20June P3-lead, IC 15June P4-lead, IC 10June

CFS-GFS Forecast Verification Over Homogenous Regions MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI

CFS, CEI

GFSbc, CEI

CFS, MZI

GFSbc, MZI

CFS, NEI

GFSbc, NEI

CFS, NWI

GFSbc, NWI

CFS, SPI

GFSbc, SPI

MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS 16 May IC 21 May IC

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 26 May IC 31 May IC

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 10 Jun IC 5 Jun IC (OBS is for 20 days only)