Based on the PMBOK® Guide 3rd Edition 6. Time Management PMP Prep Course Based on the PMBOK® Guide 3rd Edition © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

What is Project Time Management? Project Time Management – Includes the processes required to accomplish timely completion of the project.* Project time management is concerned primarily with resources, activities, scheduling and schedule management. The project manager should be in charge of the schedule and not vice versa The schedule is built from the ground up derived from the scope baseline. *Source: PMBOK® p.65 © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

Monitoring & Controlling Time Management Knowledge Process Groups Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring & Controlling Closing Time Management Knowledge Area Processes 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Activity Resource Estimating 6.4 Activity Duration Estimating 6.5 Schedule Development 6.6 Schedule Control Closing 6.1 - List the activities 6.2 – Order the activities and create the project network diagram 6.3 – Estimating the resources needed to complete each activity 6.4 – Determine time estimates for each activity 6.5 – Create the schedule 6.6 – Monitor schedule performance © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.1 Activity Definition Activity Definition – Is the process of taking the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and identifying the specific schedule activities needed to be performed in order to produce the various project deliverables. A level small enough to estimate, schedule, monitor and manage *Source: PMBOK® p.65 © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.1 Activity Definition – Input, Tools & Techniques, and Outputs Inputs .1 – company culture and structure – infrastructure (factors/systems) .2 – (assets) standard processes, templates, & guidelines .3 – project deliverables, constraints and assumptions .4 – primary input to schedule activity definition .5 – supports the WBS, detailed content of the component .6 – schedule management plan, guidance on development & planning Tools & Techniques .1 – subdividing the project work package .2 – standard activity list from previous project .3 – progressive elaboration near term work planned in detail at a low level- future work planned at a higher level .4 – experienced and skilled .5 – control accounts, planning packages (above work packages) © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.1 Activity Definition Key Terms Work Packages Activity List Nouns – A Deliverable or project work component at the lowest level of each branch of the WBS. Activity List Verbs – A documented tabulation of schedule activities that show the activity description, activity identifier and a sufficiently detailed scope of work description so project team members understand what work is to be performed. Work Packages are things you can touch or feel. They are nouns and are often referred to as deliverables Activities are the things done to product the work packages. They are also often called tasks. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.1 Activity Definition - Outputs All schedule activities that are planned to be performed. Identify person responsible, geographic area or place. Mandatory or optional. Processed for review and disposition Outputs Activity List Activity attributes Milestone list Requested changes © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.1 Activity Definition The Work Breakdown Structure Work Packages Activities Notice the activity list does not show dependencies… © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Activity Sequencing – Involves identifying and documenting the logical relationships among schedule activities that were developed in the Activity Definition process. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing -Inputs Contains the product scope description and characteristics © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing – Tools & Techniques Utility of Network Based Schedule Reveals interdependence of activities. Determine projected completion date. Assesses resource and time requirements and any tradeoffs. Facilitates “what if” exercises. Highlights critical activities The three (3) out of the four (4) tools listed under the tools and techniques are Network Based Schedules. You can think of these schedules as visual representations of the project as they entail boxes or circles and arrows connecting them. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Network Based Schedules Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) Conditional Diagramming Method GERT System Dynamics The most commonly used of these techniques is Precedence Diagramming or PDM. Technically, PDM is a form of Arrow on Node Diagramming which is part of the Arrow Diagramming Method. So we will begin by defining the Arrow Diagramming Method and building from there. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Arrow Diagramming Methods Activity on Node (AON) Network Format Arrows show precedence relationship Nodes show activities The second type of Arrow Diagramming Method is Activity on Node or AON. In this method the activities are placed on the nodes themselves and not the arrows. The arrows are simply used to connect the nodes much like a set of Tinker Toys. In standard AON diagramming there is also only one (1) type of relationship. That is a finish to Start relationship. Precedence Diagramming is the only method that allows other relationships. Start 1 2 3 End Setup Work Finish © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Precedence Relationships Start to Start The first type of relationship within Precedence Diagramming is a Start to Start. Task A & B may start at the same time but (B) can’t begin until the first task (A) has started. Task A Task B © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Precedence Relationships Finish to Finish Task A Task A & B may end at the same time but (B) can’t finish until the first task (A) has finished. Task B © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Precedence Relationships Start to Finish Task A Task B Task (A) must start before Task(B) can finish. This method is seldom used. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Precedence Relationships Finish to Start Task A Task B Task (A) must finish before the next task, task (B) can begin. This is the most common method. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) Start Task A 1 Task B Here is what a Precedence diagram looks like when you put it all together. 2 Task C Task D Task F Task E 3 4 Shows a diverging point. C to D shows a finish to finish activity. F to G shows a start to start activity. Shows a converging point Task G Finish © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Network Based Schedules Arrow Diagramming Method Activity on Arrow (AOA) Nodes Show Relationships The first type of Arrow Diagramming Method is Activity on Arrow or AOA. In this method the activities are placed on the individual arrows and the circles or nodes are simple connectors. In this method all activities are finish-to-start relationships. This means that one activity must be completed before then next one can begin. Another important point about the AOA method is that dummy activities are represented by dotted lines. A dummy activity is an activity that does not take place, but that is required by the diagram to show dependency. They do not require work or time The next slide shows and example of this. Event Event Event Set up Work Finish Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 Only shows a finish to start relationship © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Activity On Arrow B C A Dummy D F E © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing Tools & Techniques Activity – Consumes time Event/Result – A point in time. Does not consume time Dummy – Shows a dependency, but with no activity involved. They do not require work or time. Activity A-B A A B Activity A © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing - Tools & Techniques Schedule Network Templates Dependencies Mandatory (Hard Logic) Inherent in the nature of the work being done Discretionary (Soft Logic) Defined by the project management team External Involve a relationship between project activities and non-project activities The three (3) out of the four (4) tools listed under the tools and techniques are Network Based Schedules. You can think of these schedules as visual representations of the project as they entail boxes or circles and arrows connecting them. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing - Tools & Techniques Leads and Lags Lag – Inserted waiting time between tasks Lead – An overlap between tasks that have a dependency. For example, lead time would exist if a task can start 10 days before the predecessor is finished The three (3) out of the four (4) tools listed under the tools and techniques are Network Based Schedules. You can think of these schedules as visual representations of the project as they entail boxes or circles and arrows connecting them. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing - Outputs Schematic displays of the project’s schedule activities and the logical relationships (dependencies) among them. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing - Outputs Project network diagram Start End Based upon the diagramming tool you use you will have several outputs from activity sequencing. The first output is of course the network diagram. This diagram will also allow you to create updates to your activity list. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing - Outputs Exercise 1 Create the following AOA Diagram Task Dependency 1 None 5 Task 3 9 Task 8 2 Task 1 6 Task 4 3 Task 2 7 Task 5 4 8 Tasks 6 & 7 © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing - Outputs Exercise 2 Create the following AOA Diagram Task Dependency A None E Task B I Task F B Task A F Task E J Tasks D, H, I C G D H Task C © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing - Outputs Exercise 3 Create the following PDM Diagram Task Dependency 1 None 5 3 – FS 9 7 – FS 2 1 – FS 6 4 – FS 10 8 & 9 - FS 3 2 – FS 7 5 & 6 – FS 4 2 - FS 8 7 - FS FS = Finish to Start SS = Start to Start FF = Finish to Finish SF = Start to Finish © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.2 Activity Sequencing - Outputs Exercise 4 Create the following PDM Diagram Task Dependency A None F D - FS K I - FS B A – FS G F – FF L J – FS C B – FS H F & G – FS M K & L - FS D B – SS I E & H – FS E C – FS J I – SS Draw network diagram from exercise FS = Finish to Start SS = Start to Start FF = Finish to Finish SF = Start to Finish © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.3 Activity Resource Estimating Activity Resource Estimating – Is the process used to estimate the type and quantities of resources (persons, equipment, or material) required to perform each schedule activity. Activity Duration Estimating Uses work periods as the primary measure Answers the question “How long will this activity or deliverable take?” Duration is in terms of calendar time. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.3 Activity Resource Estimating Inputs WBS – The WBS is the primary input to activity definition. Scope Statement – From Scope Planning Historical Information – From previous projects. Constraints – Are factors that will limit the project management team’s options. Imposed date,key events /& milestones Predefined budget, contractual provisions. Assumptions – are things we believe to be true. Key person available a degree of risk Expert Judgment- specialized knowledge or training; Consultants, stakeholders, other org. units, associations PMI Industry groups Tools & Techniques Decomposition – subdividing project work packages final output are activities Templates – activities list from previous projects Displayed Thinking Outputs Activity List Supporting Detail WBS Updates © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.3 Activity Resource Estimating - Inputs Which resources are potentially available and when they may be available. (people, equipment, & material) Inputs WBS – The WBS is the primary input to activity definition. Scope Statement – From Scope Planning Historical Information – From previous projects. Constraints – Are factors that will limit the project management team’s options. Imposed date,key events /& milestones Predefined budget, contractual provisions. Assumptions – are things we believe to be true. Key person available a degree of risk Expert Judgment- specialized knowledge or training; Consultants, stakeholders, other org. units, associations PMI Industry groups Tools & Techniques Decomposition – subdividing project work packages final output are activities Templates – activities list from previous projects Displayed Thinking Outputs Activity List Supporting Detail WBS Updates © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.3 Activity Resource Estimating – Tools & Techniques Specialized knowledge. Alternative methods of accomplishment. Rates and unit costs of resources. Help plan, organize, and manage resource pools. More detailed piece of work estimating. Inputs WBS – The WBS is the primary input to activity definition. Scope Statement – From Scope Planning Historical Information – From previous projects. Constraints – Are factors that will limit the project management team’s options. Imposed date,key events /& milestones Predefined budget, contractual provisions. Assumptions – are things we believe to be true. Key person available a degree of risk Expert Judgment- specialized knowledge or training; Consultants, stakeholders, other org. units, associations PMI Industry groups Tools & Techniques Decomposition – subdividing project work packages final output are activities Templates – activities list from previous projects Displayed Thinking Outputs Activity List Supporting Detail WBS Updates © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.3 Activity Resource Estimating – Outputs This process identifies and describes the types and quantities of resources required for each schedule activity in a work package.. Resource Types Human Equipment (cranes, test equipment, etc.) Material (water, power, vendor items) Inputs WBS – The WBS is the primary input to activity definition. Scope Statement – From Scope Planning Historical Information – From previous projects. Constraints – Are factors that will limit the project management team’s options. Imposed date,key events /& milestones Predefined budget, contractual provisions. Assumptions – are things we believe to be true. Key person available a degree of risk Expert Judgment- specialized knowledge or training; Consultants, stakeholders, other org. units, associations PMI Industry groups Tools & Techniques Decomposition – subdividing project work packages final output are activities Templates – activities list from previous projects Displayed Thinking Outputs Activity List Supporting Detail WBS Updates © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.4 Activity Duration Estimating Activity Duration Estimating – Is the process used to determine the number of work periods it will take to complete each individual schedule activity. Activity Duration Estimating Uses work periods as the primary measure Answers the question “How long will this activity or deliverable take?” Duration is in terms of calendar time. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

What Are The Benefits Of A Realistic Schedule? Time Management What Are The Benefits Of A Realistic Schedule? Spend five (5) minutes discussing Framework for managing critical project activities. Determines planned start and completion dates. Identifies activity and task precedence relationships. Aids project team in defining critical communication content. Specifies times when resources must be available. Helps to prevent surprises. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.4 Activity Duration Estimating Inputs WBS – The WBS is the primary input to activity definition. Scope Statement – From Scope Planning Historical Information – From previous projects. Constraints – Are factors that will limit the project management team’s options. Imposed date,key events /& milestones Predefined budget, contractual provisions. Assumptions – are things we believe to be true. Key person available a degree of risk Expert Judgment- specialized knowledge or training; Consultants, stakeholders, other org. units, associations PMI Industry groups Tools & Techniques Decomposition – subdividing project work packages final output are activities Templates – activities list from previous projects Displayed Thinking Outputs Activity List Supporting Detail WBS Updates © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.4 Activity Duration Estimating - Inputs The availability, capabilities, and skills of human resources. The type, quantity, availability, and capability of equipment and material resources that could significantly influence the schedule activities Inputs WBS – The WBS is the primary input to activity definition. Scope Statement – From Scope Planning Historical Information – From previous projects. Constraints – Are factors that will limit the project management team’s options. Imposed date,key events /& milestones Predefined budget, contractual provisions. Assumptions – are things we believe to be true. Key person available a degree of risk Expert Judgment- specialized knowledge or training; Consultants, stakeholders, other org. units, associations PMI Industry groups Tools & Techniques Decomposition – subdividing project work packages final output are activities Templates – activities list from previous projects Displayed Thinking Outputs Activity List Supporting Detail WBS Updates © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.4 Activity Duration Estimating – Tools & Techniques Top down estimating, using actual durations from previous, similar schedule activities as a basis. Uses a mathematical model to calculate projected times for an activity and is usually based on historical information records from previous projects. Inputs WBS – The WBS is the primary input to activity definition. Scope Statement – From Scope Planning Historical Information – From previous projects. Constraints – Are factors that will limit the project management team’s options. Imposed date,key events /& milestones Predefined budget, contractual provisions. Assumptions – are things we believe to be true. Key person available a degree of risk Expert Judgment- specialized knowledge or training; Consultants, stakeholders, other org. units, associations PMI Industry groups Tools & Techniques Decomposition – subdividing project work packages final output are activities Templates – activities list from previous projects Displayed Thinking Outputs Activity List Supporting Detail WBS Updates © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.4 Activity Duration Estimating – Tools & Techniques Are based on three types of estimates. Most likely – realistic expectations Optimistic - a best-case scenario Pessimistic – a worst-case scenario A percentage of the estimated time set aside as a buffer Inputs WBS – The WBS is the primary input to activity definition. Scope Statement – From Scope Planning Historical Information – From previous projects. Constraints – Are factors that will limit the project management team’s options. Imposed date,key events /& milestones Predefined budget, contractual provisions. Assumptions – are things we believe to be true. Key person available a degree of risk Expert Judgment- specialized knowledge or training; Consultants, stakeholders, other org. units, associations PMI Industry groups Tools & Techniques Decomposition – subdividing project work packages final output are activities Templates – activities list from previous projects Displayed Thinking Outputs Activity List Supporting Detail WBS Updates © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.4 Activity Duration Estimating - Outputs Should include some indication of the range of possible results or percent of probability. Percent of probability – 85% confidence level Range – 2 weeks +/- 2 days Inputs WBS – The WBS is the primary input to activity definition. Scope Statement – From Scope Planning Historical Information – From previous projects. Constraints – Are factors that will limit the project management team’s options. Imposed date,key events /& milestones Predefined budget, contractual provisions. Assumptions – are things we believe to be true. Key person available a degree of risk Expert Judgment- specialized knowledge or training; Consultants, stakeholders, other org. units, associations PMI Industry groups Tools & Techniques Decomposition – subdividing project work packages final output are activities Templates – activities list from previous projects Displayed Thinking Outputs Activity List Supporting Detail WBS Updates © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development Schedule Development – Is the process for determining when activities or work packages begin and end in terms of start and finish dates. Schedule Development gives you the ability to create operating plans to manage the project. The purpose of the schedule is to convert the project plan into an operating plan that is the basic tool for controlling all project activities. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development Schedule Development provides one of the longest areas with the most inputs, tools and techniques and Outputs of any part of the PMBOK Guide. We just finished talking about Network Diagrams and activity estimates. Next we want to discuss a couple of specific tools for getting accurate schedules. Resource pool description – what resources will be available and at what times and in what patterns - shared & critical resources Leads - start 10 days before predecessor is finished Lag - waiting time between task pouring concrete Activity Attribute – responsibility who will perform the work, Geographic areas where Calendars are needed for both resources and the project. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Inputs The difference between a time estimate and a schedule is that a schedule is calendar based. The project scope statement contains assumptions and constraints that can impact the development of the project schedule. Schedule Development provides one of the longest areas with the most inputs, tools and techniques and Outputs of any part of the PMBOK Guide. We just finished talking about Network Diagrams and activity estimates. Next we want to discuss a couple of specific tools for getting accurate schedules. Resource pool description – what resources will be available and at what times and in what patterns - shared & critical resources Leads - start 10 days before predecessor is finished Lag - waiting time between task pouring concrete Activity Attribute – responsibility who will perform the work, Geographic areas where Calendars are needed for both resources and the project. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development – Tools & Techniques Technique that generates the project schedule Early start & finish, late start & finish Shortens the project schedule Can assess the feasibility under adverse conditions Can cause the original critical path to change To account for limited resources Both project and resource calendars To correct distortion Schedule Development provides one of the longest areas with the most inputs, tools and techniques and Outputs of any part of the PMBOK Guide. We just finished talking about Network Diagrams and activity estimates. Next we want to discuss a couple of specific tools for getting accurate schedules. Resource pool description – what resources will be available and at what times and in what patterns - shared & critical resources Leads - start 10 days before predecessor is finished Lag - waiting time between task pouring concrete Activity Attribute – responsibility who will perform the work, Geographic areas where Calendars are needed for both resources and the project. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques Mathematical Analysis Critical Path Method (CPM) Graphical Evaluation & Review Technique (GERT) Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT) Within the tools section there are five (5) tools for schedule development. We are going to focus on two (2): PERT and the critical path method. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques The Critical Path The Critical Path is the project path which will be the longest duration or where all activities have zero float. Critical Path does not necessarily have the greatest risk. Determines the earliest completion of the project. Simply put, the Critical Path determines when the project will be finished. Any delay on the Critical Path will delay the project. It determines the earliest completion of the project. It can change and become negative. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques Network Calculations Forward Pass through the network determines Early Start and Early Finish for each activity. Backward Pass through the network determines the Late Start and Late Finish for each activity. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques ES or Early Start is the earliest a task or activity can begin. LS or Late Start is the latest a task or activity can begin without delaying a milestone (usually the project finish date). DUR or Duration is how long the task or activity will take. ES DUR EF Task LS Float LF © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development -Tools & Techniques ES DUR EF Task LS Float LF EF or Early Finish is the earliest a task can finish. LF or Late Finish is the latest a task can finish without delaying a milestone (usually the project finish date). Float (slack) is the difference between the Early Finish and Late Finish, or between the Early Start and Late Start. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques EF = ES + DUR LS = LF – DUR Float = LF – EF or LS - ES ES DUR EF Task LS Float LF 0 2 2 Task A 0 0 2 2 4 6 Task B 2 0 6 6 2 8 Task E 6 0 8 8 2 10 Task F 8 0 10 2 3 5 Task D 5 3 8 2 2 4 Task C 6 4 8 © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques Float (Slack) – The amount of time a task can be delayed without delaying the project. Total Slack – The amount of time that an activity can be delayed without delaying the project finish Free Slack – The amount of time that an activity can be delayed without delaying the early start of its successor. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development -Tools & Techniques Float (Slack) When float is greater than “0” time is available. When float is equal to “0” the activity is on the critical path. When float is less than “0” the schedule cannot be met without re-planning. Also called Slack – the amount of time a task can be delayed without delaying the project © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques Task Duration Dependency A 3 B 5 C 4 D 6 E 7 F 9 G 2 H E, G Critical Path Method Exercise 1 Using the information on this page construct a CPM diagram. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques Task Duration Dependency A 6 B 9 C 3 D 1 E 4 F 5 G 7 H 8 I E, G J I, H Critical Path Method Exercise 2 © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development -Tools & Techniques Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT) A network analysis technique to estimate duration. PERT is NOT a chart!!! Used to account for uncertainties Most frequently used in R & D programs Requires expertise Uses three (3) time estimates: Optimistic, Most Likely and Pessimistic A Guasian Distribution is a normal bell curve. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT) Calculate the expected time for each activity. Distribution of each activity time based upon probability distribution. Assumes normal distribution: 68% chance of being within 1 SD 95% chance of being within 2 SD 99% chance of being within 3 SD © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT) 4X Most Likely It is almost guaranteed that you will have to calculate PERT on the Exam. 6 miles to work 13 lights (O-6mins, P-16mins, ML-8mins) 6+32+16/6 = 9 = Expected value (16-6)/6 = 10/6 = +/-1.67 1SD 7.33mins -10.67 mins PERT Weighted = Average Optimistic + + Pessimistic 6 PERT Standard = Deviation Pessimistic - Optimistic 6 © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development -Tools & Techniques PERT Problem Weighted Average 5 miles to work 13 lights O-Optimistic 6 minutes P-Pessimistic 16 minutes ML-Most Likely 8 minutes Standard Deviation © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques PERT Exercise 1 Task Worst Case Est. Most Likely Case Est. Best Case Est. 1. Scope Project 5 Weeks 3 Weeks 2 Weeks 2. Analysis / Software Requirements 8 Weeks 3. Design System 14 Weeks 10 Weeks 4. Development 36 Weeks 24 Weeks 20 Weeks 5. Unit Testing 6 Weeks 4 Weeks 6. Integration Testing 9 Weeks 7 Weeks 7. Training 8. Documentation 9. Pilot Deployment 10. Deployment © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques PERT Exercise 2 Task Worst Case Est. Most Likely Case Est. Best Case Est. A 6 Weeks 4 Weeks 2 Weeks B 12 Weeks 7 Weeks 5 Weeks C 15 Weeks 11 Weeks D 9 Weeks E 8 Weeks F 13 Weeks What are the PERT estimate ranges with a 68% probability? To do the estimated ranges you must use the PERT standard deviation formula. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development -Tools & Techniques Duration Compression Crashing – Reducing the time a work package or activity takes to produce. Fast Tracking – Doing dependent work packages or activities in parallel. Crashing The most common method used for crashing is adding more resources to the critical path. Moving resources from non critical paths or adding extra resources Crashing has two potential major risks The Additional resources will not increase productivity due to training or ramping up time Crashing often dramatically increases project costs. Fast Tracking Doing tasks in parallel Often results in rework and increases risk Figure out all potential choices and then select the choice or choices that have the least impact on the project. Fast Tracking has one major risk. It is the risk that doing activities in parallel will cause them to not go together properly when the deliverables are brought back together. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques Simulation Modeling Monte Carlo Simulation is most common Variable values are randomly selected by the model based upon an allowable range. Model results are calculated 1000’s of times. Estimates are made based upon the average model project length and the standard deviation of all data. Project length and critical path are calculated using the normal procedure. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Tools & Techniques Simulation Modeling - Advantages Significantly more accurate than PERT or other techniques. Provides percentage of how many times an activity was on the critical path. Provides probability distribution of time estimates. Removes most subjectivity from estimation process. Can be quickly repeated with new data. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development -Tools & Techniques Simulation Modeling - Disadvantages Requires training Requires basic knowledge of statistics Is a type of black box © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Outputs Includes at least a planned start date and a planned finish date for each schedule activity Popular formats are: Project schedule network diagrams Bar charts Milestone charts Accepted and approved by the project management team as the schedule baseline Schedule Development provides one of the longest areas with the most inputs, tools and techniques and Outputs of any part of the PMBOK Guide. We just finished talking about Network Diagrams and activity estimates. Next we want to discuss a couple of specific tools for getting accurate schedules. Resource pool description – what resources will be available and at what times and in what patterns - shared & critical resources Leads - start 10 days before predecessor is finished Lag - waiting time between task pouring concrete Activity Attribute – responsibility who will perform the work, Geographic areas where Calendars are needed for both resources and the project. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Outputs Bar Charts (Gantt) Show activity start and end dates, as well as expected durations Advantages Good Communications Tool Easy to Prepare and Update Good for Small Projects Disadvantages Minimal Help in Project Control © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.5 Schedule Development - Outputs Milestone Charts Similar to bar charts, but only identify the scheduled start or completion of major deliverables and key external interfaces. Advantages Good for executive status reporting Easy to prepare and update Disadvantages Summary level report Only shows major deliverables © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.6 Schedule Control Schedule Control – Is concerned with: Determining the current status of the project schedule. Influencing the factors that create schedule change. Determining that the project schedule has changed. Managing the actual changes as they occur. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.6 Schedule Control Schedule Control is really all about keeping the project on time and making appropriate schedule changes when needed. To do this, the project manager must take the initial project plan and use the performance reports to tell where you really are, apply any change requests and track how the schedule has really changed. Components to accomplish this complex job include: Inputs: Project Schedule – from Schedule Development Processes. Performance Reports – from Performance Reporting Processes. Change Requests Schedule Management Plan – from Schedule Development Processes © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.6 Schedule Control -Inputs Establishes how the project schedule will be managed and changed. Provides the basis for measuring and reporting schedule performance. Provide information on schedule performance. After processed through the Integrated Change Control process are used to update the project schedule. Schedule Control is really all about keeping the project on time and making appropriate schedule changes when needed. To do this, the project manager must take the initial project plan and use the performance reports to tell where you really are, apply any change requests and track how the schedule has really changed. Components to accomplish this complex job include: Inputs: Project Schedule – from Schedule Development Processes. Performance Reports – from Performance Reporting Processes. Change Requests Schedule Management Plan – from Schedule Development Processes © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.6 Schedule Control – Tools & Techniques Actual starts & finish date and remaining durations fro unfinished schedule activities. Defines the procedures by which the project schedule can be changed. Produce the SV and SPI to assess project schedule variations. A key function of schedule control. Detects deviation and implementation corrective action. Schedule Control is really all about keeping the project on time and making appropriate schedule changes when needed. To do this, the project manager must take the initial project plan and use the performance reports to tell where you really are, apply any change requests and track how the schedule has really changed. Components to accomplish this complex job include: Inputs: Project Schedule – from Schedule Development Processes. Performance Reports – from Performance Reporting Processes. Change Requests Schedule Management Plan – from Schedule Development Processes © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

6.6 Schedule Control - Outputs Schedule Updates – Are any changes to the schedule, which require re-examination of cost, project quality and scope. Corrective Action – Activity performed to bring expected future project performance in line with the project plan. Lessons Learned – Causes of variances, reasoning behind corrective actions and other types of lessons learned from schedule control that are documented in a historical database for future references by other projects in the organization. Schedule Control is really all about keeping the project on time and making appropriate schedule changes when needed. To do this, the project manager must take the initial project plan and use the performance reports to tell where you really are, apply any change requests and track how the schedule has really changed. Components to accomplish this complex job include: Inputs: Project Schedule – from Schedule Development Processes. Performance Reports – from Performance Reporting Processes. Change Requests Schedule Management Plan – from Schedule Development Processes © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

Time Management - Summary Activity List is the key output from Activity Definition Define the three types of dependences in Activity Sequencing (Mandatory, Discretionary, & External) Precedence diagramming method (PDM) - 4 relationships on nodes Arrow diagramming method (ADM) - relationships on arrows & dummy Know how to create a network diagram Understand and be able to calculate a Critical Path. © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved

Time Management - Summary Forward and backward passes for calculating float and critical path PERT weighted average formula (O+4xML+P)/6 PERT standard deviation (P-O)/6 Duration compression – Crashing & fast tracking Project network diagram is a key output from Activity Sequencing Project schedule is a key output from Schedule Development © Looking Glass Development, 2001 – All Rights Reserved