Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) Intermountain Data Warehouse (IWDW) WAQS Workplan and Modeling Update University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Ramboll-Environ (Environ) December 15, 2015 IWDW-WAQS Technical Committee Call

Summary Review workplan and deliverables Modeling Update Next Steps Simulation 2011b CAMx and CMAQ MPE Emissions projections and simulation 2025 Next Steps

WAQS Revised Phase II SoW (Sep’15) Original WAQS Phase II SoW Task 1: 2011 CMAQ (completed) Task 2: SA Modeling (continue) Task 3: Model Improve (completed) Task 4: 2011 Vis/Dep (completed) Task 5: 2014 Plan (completed) Task 6: 2014 WRF (completed) Task 7: 2014 EI (de-obligate) Task 8: 2014 AQ (de-obligate) Task 9: Winter Ozone (completed) Task 10: O&G EI (de-obligate) Task 11: Management (continue) New WAQS Phase II SoW Task 12: 2011b MPE Task 13: CMAQ 2011b Task 14: 2025 SMOKE Task 15: 2025 CAMx Task 16: 2025 CMAQ Task 17: IWDW Support Underlined Tasks in Revised SoW Bold Underlined Tasks Currently Active

Revised WAQS Phase II SoW Task 2: Source Apportionment Modeling Objectives: To quantify emission source/receptor relationships in western U.S. using 2011 database Status (Dec 15, 2015): Geographic (State-Specific) O3 and PM SA sing 2011a (completed) Source Category-Specific O3 and PM SA using 2011b (completed) SA Visualization Tool: Draft SA Vis Plan (Apr 2015); Comments on Draft Vis Plan (June 2015); RtC Document (Aug 2015); Final SA Vis Plan (Sep 2015) Next Steps (Dec 2015 – Mar 2016): Update SA Visualization Tool and Load Geographic/Source Data (Dec 2015) Beta Testing of Revised SA Vis Tool (Jan 2016) Revisions SA Vis Tool (Jan-Feb 2016) Plan for Detailed 4 km SA Modeling (Jan 2016) Detailed SA Modeling (Jan-Feb 2016) Load Data in Vis Tool and Post to IWDW (Feb-Mar 2016)

Revised WAQS Phase II SoW Task 11: Project Management Objectives: Conference calls, meetings, monthly reports, contracts and manage study Status: On-Going Weekly Conference Calls Technical Committee Conference Calls and Meetings Monthly Progress Report and Invoices Day-to-day Project Management at Ramboll Environ and UNC

Revised WAQS Phase II SoW Task 12: Complete 2011b MPE Analysis Objective: Finish CAMx 2011b MPE and incorporate CMAQ 2011b MPE Status: On-going Completed CAMx and CMAQ 2011b 36/12/4 km Base Case and MPE Products Load 2011b MPE products in IWDW (Oct-Dec 2015) Load 2011b EI in IWDW Emissions Review Tool (Nov 2015) Next Steps: Draft MPE Report and Wiki (Dec 2015) Present 2011b MPE Results TechComm (Jan 12, 2016) Data transfer to IWDW (Nov 2015 – Jan 2016)

Revised WAQS Phase II SoW Task 13: CMAQ 2011b 36/12/4 km Base Case Objective: Perform CMAQ 2011b 36, 12 and 4 km base case and MPE Status: Completed CMAQ 2011b 36, 12 and 4 km Run (Dec 2015) Next Steps: CMAQ MPE products (Dec 2015) Integrate in 2011b MPE Addendum and Wiki (Jan 2016) Present results at Jan 12, 2016 TechComm Meeting

Revised WAQS Phase II SoW Task 14: 2011b-based 2025 SMOKE EI Modeling Objective: Process 2025 emissions using SMOKE Status: Processed most 2025 emissions sectors (Dec 2015) Next Steps: Update 2020 O&G for Denver-Julesburg Basin (Dec, 2015) RAQC/CDPHE with Operators developed updated O&G EI for D-J Basin VOC in 2011 ~100,000 TPY vs. 2017 ~50,000 TPY 3SAQS 2020 VOC projection from 2 years ago: ~300,000 TPY Use new RAQC/CDPHE information to update 2020 D-J O&G EI O&G Task defunded so use resources from Task 2 SrcApp CAMx/CMAQ-ready 2025 emission inputs (Dec 2015) EI Trends Report Addendum (Jan 2016) Transfer FY EI to IWDW (Jan 2016) 2025 Emissions discussed at January 12, 2016 TechComm Meeting

Revised WAQS Phase II SoW Task 15: CAMx 2025 36/12/4 km Modeling Objective: Perform CAMx 2025 Modeling Next Steps: CAMx 2025 36/12/4 km Run (Feb 2016) 2025 Modeling Report and Wiki (Mar 2016) Transfer 2025 CAMx to IWDW (Mar 2016) Task 16: CMAQ FY 36/12/4 km Modeling Objective: Perform CMAQ 2025 Modeling CMAQ 2025 36, 12 and 4 km Runs (Feb 2016) Transfer 2025 CMAQ to IWDW (Mar 2016)

Revised WAQS Phase II SoW Task 17: IWDW Support Objective: Provide air quality modeling expertise support to IWDW Status: On-going Weekly IWDW operation conference calls Additional topical conference calls IWDW data support IWDW programming and documentation support Data storage and hardware

WAQS 2011b Simulations and MPE Simulation Status CAMx and CMAQ Simulations Complete Analyses focusing on 12-km and 4-km domains Site-level performance at key monitors in CO, UT, WY, and NM Comparison between 2011a and 2011b simulations Extended MPE plots available at the IWDW

WAQS 2011b Simulations and MPE Operational Statistics Models CAMx v6.10 (CB6r2): 32 cores x hybrid OpenMP/MPI CMAQ v5.0.2 (CB05): 32 cores x MPI (mvapich2) SMOKE v3.5.1 Run Time (36/12/4km x annual simulation) CAMx: 40 days (“wall clock”) CMAQ: 69.5 days (“wall clock”) Output Data Volumes (36/12/4km x annual simulation) CAMx: 8.8 Tb CMAQ: 20 Tb

WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: All AQS sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE Comparing 2011a/b for CMAQ/CAMx All simulations within performance goals in all months CAMx lower bias in Jan-Mar, CMAQ lower bias in the summer and December Performance is similar for each model between 2011a and 2011b

WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: All CASTNet sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE CAMx has lower bias in the first half of the year and then both CAMx and CMAQ are similar through the rest of the year On average, CMAQ estimates lower O3 concentrations than CAMx across the domain

WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: Colorado AQS Sites DRAFT DO NOT CITE Although CAMx estimates higher O3 on average, CMAQ estimates higher peaks

WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: Utah AQS Sites DRAFT DO NOT CITE CAMx doing better in the winter than CMAQ. Slightly lower winter O3 in Base11b than Base11a

WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: Wyoming AQS Sites DRAFT DO NOT CITE Q-Q plot distorts the CMAQ performance at the upper tail of observations by pairing a summer ozone concentration with the winter ozone observations.

WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: New Mexico AQS Sites DRAFT DO NOT CITE All models are estimating too much O3 in the last 7 months of the year; these biases are highlighted in the model performance at the NM AQS sites.

WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: Rocky Flats North, CO DRAFT DO NOT CITE Ozone season performance Skill plots highlight the ability of the models to simulate NAAQS violations CAMx has more “hits” and less “misses” than CMAQ, but also more “false alarms”

WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: Rocky Flats North, CO DRAFT DO NOT CITE Ozone season performance Diurnal and DOW plots Both models generally capture the diurnal profile of O3 Excessive titration in afternoon rush hour CAMx captures the day of week profile better than CMAQ

WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: Gothic, CO DRAFT DO NOT CITE CAMx is estimating too much ozone at Gothic Both models fail to estimate any of the NAAQS violations in May-June possibly due to missed LR transport/STE events

WAQS Simulation Base11b Hourly NO2 Performance: All AQS sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE High NO2 biases are reduced in Base11b at AQS sites across the 4-km domain NO2 is still overestimated in most months Domain-wide NO2 biases are lower in CMAQ than CAMx

WAQS Simulation Base11b Hourly CO Performance: All AQS sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE CO performance is similar in Base11a vs Base11b High winter CO positive biases in CAMx persist in Base11b

WAQS Simulation Base11b Daily Max Total PM2 WAQS Simulation Base11b Daily Max Total PM2.5 Performance: All sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE CSN IMPROVE Total PM2.5 is lower in simulation Base11b, leading to improvement in overestimates seen in Base11a. Zeroing the dust boundary conditions reduce the total PM2.5 in all months and penalizes the rural model performance outside of the winter months.

WAQS Simulation Base11b Winter PM2 WAQS Simulation Base11b Winter PM2.5 Performance: CSN sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE CAMx B11a vs B11b B11b CAMx vs CMAQ Winter OC at urban CSN sites reduced in Base11b, leading to improvement over Base11a; model still over estimates OC. Dust reductions improve overall CSN performance in Base11b vs Base11a CAMx and CMAQ Base11b performance are similar

WAQS Simulation Base11b Spring PM2 WAQS Simulation Base11b Spring PM2.5 Performance: IMPROVE sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE CAMx B11a vs B11b B11b CAMx vs CMAQ Significant dust (PM Other) reductions improve overall CSN performance in Base11b vs Base11a, although now underestimating dust, NO3, and OC CAMx and CMAQ Base11b performance are similar

WAQS Simulation Base11b Total PM2.5 Performance: Canyonlands, UT DRAFT DO NOT CITE Overadjusted the dust BC error NO3 and NH4 are too low in the spring and summer

WAQS Simulation Base11b Total PM2.5 Performance: Bandelier, NM DRAFT DO NOT CITE Overadjusted the dust BC error NO3 and NH4 are too low in the spring and summer

WAQS Simulation Base11b Regional Haze: 20% Worst Days DRAFT DO NOT CITE CAMx vs CMAQ on 20% worst days CAMx has too much sea salt Models both low for OC, NO3, and SO4

WAQS Simulation Base11b Regional Haze: 20% Worst Days comparison to Base11a DRAFT DO NOT CITE CAMx Base11b extinctions decreased relative to Base11a, driven by SO4 and soil: performance degrades in Base11b CMAQ Base11b extinctions increased relative to Base11a, driven by organic PM: performance improves in Base11b

WAQS Simulation Base11b MPE Next Steps Finish the MPE report by January 2016 Review the model performance at January 12, 2016 Technical Committee meeting Examples of MPE shown here, what else does the Technical Committee want to see for an MPE summary at the January meeting? Release the platform in January 2016

Emissions Projections Review Objectives and background Review summaries of state-level by species and emission source categories Review schedule for future year modeling

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions VOC CO NOx VOC (no biogenics)

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 SO2 NH3 CH4

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions Methane 90% of the UT Area O&G CH4 is from pneumatic devices and dehydrators 97% of the CA Nonpoint CH4 is from landfills

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 SO2 NH3 CH4 (no O&G)

Denver-Julesburg Basin Inventories Recent updates to the D-J Basin inventory by CDPHE and RAQC show significant differences with the NEI and 3SAQS inventories, particularly with the projected VOC emissions

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions SO2 Big reductions from base to future in EGU Point SO2 in several states

WAQS Project Timeline Apr 2016 Jul 2015 2016 JAN 2011b Platform Release MAR 2025 Platform Release SEP-OCT 2011b CMAQ Modeling MAY-AUG 2014a WRF DEC-FEB 2025 CMAQ and CAMx JUL-AUG 2011b CAMx Modeling OCT-NOV 2011b MPE, 2025 SMOKE Apr 2016 Jul 2015 2016 DEC 2015 Technical Comm Call: Project Status SEP 2015 Technical Comm Meeting Project End JAN 2016 Technical Comm Meeting: Review 2011b MPE JUL 2015 Technical Comm Call OCT 2015 Technical Comm Call: Emissions Projections