Prospects for a better linkage of the Polish market with the surrounding national electricity markets Electricity Trading in CEE Region Session Zbigniew Olszewski Member of Management Board , TOE CEO, EGL Polska Marek Kulesa Director, TOE Prague, 6 June 2007

Introduction PWC Survey Report 2006 – Electricity Trading in Central and Eastern Europe Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Formal-legal conditions… PWC Survey Report 2006 – Electricity Trading in Central and Eastern Europe Traders need sufficient liquidity to make a market structure attractive Traders are not satisfied with the management of auctions and their timing POLAND - market with the highest growth potential Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Formal-legal conditions… Electricity directive 2003/54/EC of 26 June 2003 concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity Regulation on Cross-Border Exchanges in Electricity 1228/2003 of 26 June 2003 with Annex of 9 November 2007 European Commission Green Paper of March 2006 Directive 2005/89/EC of 18 January 2006 concerning measures to safeguard security of electricity supply and infrastructure investment Polish Energy Law Act of 10 April 1997 and (novelisation) of 12 January 2007 European Commission Strategie Eenergy Review of January 2007 Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

UE PL Sustainability Competitiveness Security of supply Formal-legal conditions… UE PL Sustainability (1) (3) Competitiveness (2) Security of supply Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Transmission grid in Poland Introduction Transmission grid in Poland Electricity 2006 Number of energy end-users 15.7 million Generation capacties 34 864 MW Gross electric energy production 161,9 TWh Total energy consumption 150 TWh Load: max (24/01/2006) min (21/05/2006) 24 640 MW 15 086 MW Source: PSE-Operator, ERA, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Formal-legal conditions… GDP and GDP growth Gross generation values 2006 [GWh] 185.5 188 216.5 252.7 303.7 566,9 6,1% 3.4% 5.3% 3.8% 1.4% 1.0% 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% Nominal GDP Real GDP growth USD Bn Electricity Production & Consumption 1981 - 2006 Electricity Production Mix in 2006 100 200 1981 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 GWh Power Generation Power Consumption 2006 Source: PSE-Operator, ERA, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Trading companies in Poland Formal-legal conditions… Trading companies in Poland concessions - 308 (5.05.2007) 26 most active trading companies are in TOE (Association of Energy Trading) total sales of the most active trading companies: about 80 TWh (2006) the number of TPA customers: over 40 Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Polish Energy Group (PGE): Formal-legal conditions… Vertical integration and concentration would result in lesser competition Number of potential customers on wholesale market would be dramatically reduced Production Distibution Polish Energy Group (PGE): PSE(without grid) BOT 36.0% 26.0% Dolna Odra Power Plant 2 Łódź Distr. Co L-5 Distr Co Rzeszów Distr. Co South Power Group PKE Stalowa Wola Power Plant 17.0% 27.0% Enion Dist Co EnergiaPro Dist. Co. Energa Group Ostrołęka Power Plant 2.0% 17.3% Kozienice Power Plant Central Group 9.0% 16.0% Energa Co. Enea Co. Source: Ministry of Economy Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

General data… SWEDEN LITHUANIA GERMANY POLAND CZECH REPUBLIC UKRAINE Stärno SWEDEN Alytus LITHUANIA Planned Słupsk Ełk Ross Krajnik Białystok GERMANY POLAND Wólka Dobrzyńska-Brześć Mikułowa 110 kV 220 kV 400 kV 750 kV Cable DC 450 kV 400 kV (planned) 400 kV (temporarily 220 kV) not in operation Zamość Dobrotwor Dobrzeń Wielopole Rzeszów Kopanina Krosno Iskrzynia CZECH REPUBLIC Bujaków Chmielnicka Albrechtice UKRAINE Nosovice Liskovec Lemešany Source: PSE Operator Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Technical capabilities of cross border trade [MW] General data… Technical capabilities of cross border trade [MW] Country Current Planned in 2010 Export Import Germany Czech Republic Slovakia 1,800 - 500 Bielarus 140 Ukraine 220 1,200 1,420 Lithuania 600 Sweden 300 Total 2,100 960 4,200 3,260 Source – PSE-Operator, ARE, SA, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Export/Import 2002-2006 (TWh)(Flows) General data… Export/Import 2002-2006 (TWh)(Flows) Source - PSE Operator Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Source - PSE Operator, TOE General data… 1 499 S 264 1 045 BY 720 D 2 546 45 884 Energy market: Cross-border trade (physical flows in 2006) CZ UA SK 10 183 3 373 Volumes in GWh. Source - PSE Operator, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Physical Flows vs Cross-Border Trade* General data… Physical Flows vs Cross-Border Trade* CZ  A 573 1624 D  A 639 -134 CZ  D 1265 1569 CZ  SK 320 507 D PL A SK CZ PL  D 835 -933 PL  CZ 420 1964 PL  SK 345 528 Dev. -1768 Dev. 304 Dev. -773 Dev. 1051 Dev. 187 Dev. 1544 Dev. 183 + export – import 100 Direction and value of physical flows 100 Direction and value of cross border trade * Hourly values on 25th October 2005 19:00 - 20:00 Source: PSE Operator Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Cross-Border Auction History General data… Cross-Border Auction History 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 No auctions VET and ČEPS Auction Offices start not coordinated auctions on profiles PL–D and CZ–PL SEPS Auction Office starts not coordinated auctions on profile SK–PL In May PSE starts monthly not coordinated auctions on profiles PL – CZ/D/SK Coordinated auctions on profiles PSE-O, VET, ČEPS i SEPS (not coordinated on profile PL–SK) Coordinated auctions (yearly, monthly and daily) on profiles between PSE-O, VET, EON, ČEPS i SEPS Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Summary of the auction results Cross Border Trade [GWh] 2005 2006 2006/2005 Export 14 290 13 434 94% Import 3 119 2 420 78% Cross Border Trade Volume 17 409 15 854 91% Source: URE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Commercial profile & direction Summary of results of the auctions Reservation period Capacity & price Commercial profile & direction PSE-O→ CEPS CEPS→ PSE-O PSE-O→ SEPS SEPS→PSE-O VE-T→ PSE-O PSE-O→ VE-T PSE IN PSE OUT Year 2006 Total Promised Capacity (MW) 51 46 485 97 Auction Price (EUR/MWh) - 0.80 23.19   January 2006 74 90 245 409 17.06 40.33 February 2006 115 200 315 12.06 42.66 March 2006 15 41.22 April 2006 80 155 11.30 31.42 May 45 12.78 23.21 June 2006 240 109 150 499 6.88 13.92 Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Commercial profile & direction Summary of results of the auctions Reservation period Capacity & price Commercial profile & direction PSE-O→ CEPS CEPS→ PSE-O PSE-O→ SEPS SEPS→PSE-O VE-T→ PSE-O PSE-O→ VE-T PSE IN PSE OUT Year 2007 Total Promised Capacity (MW) 70 15 100 Auction Price (EUR/MWh) - 0.25 0.27 0.26   January 2007 125 150 400 31.46 33.39 32.00 February 2007 170 175 495 24.23 25.05 25.11 March 2007 195 151 496 4.81 4.87 8.33 April 2007 200 5.54 May 2007 120 140 135 395 2.00 6.02 June 2007 Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

MONTHLY (MW) (JAN-JUN) Summary of results of the auctions AUCTION PSE IN PSE OUT 2006 2007 YEARLY (MW) 97 100 485 MONTHLY (MW) (JAN-JUN) 1 753 1 986 ENERGY [GWh] 850 870 3 369 1 437 2006 vs. 2007 – reduction by more than 50% Source: PSE Operator Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

PL>DE capacity requested and allocated Summary of results of daily auctions PL>DE capacity requested and allocated Hourly power Hours 2006 Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

PL>CZE capacity requested and allocated Summary of results of daily auctions PL>CZE capacity requested and allocated Hourly power Hours 2006 Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Summary of results of daily auctions Curtailed capacities Hourly power April 2006 Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

What happened in July 2006 ? Negative experience of trade companies curtailment to zero allocated capacities in yearly ( 485 MW) for 7 days and monthly (500 MW) for 9 days auctions unsufficient electricity production? TSO mistake in congestion management? Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Source – PSE-Operator, TGE SA, EEX, TOE Negative experience of trade companies Price level vs. reduction Source – PSE-Operator, TGE SA, EEX, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07

Negative experience of trade companies Conclusions (1) steady trend in reduction of offered cross border capacities in coordinated auctions since July 2006 electricity prices in Poland remained unchanged during emergency situation in the Polish grid in July 2006 forced generation fixed price being in force and approved by the regulator blocked market price mechanism in a very „efficient” way Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07 TOE. Warszawa, 2006

Negative experience of trade companies Conclusions (2) negative effect of that blockade was transferred fully and exclusively on cross border traders Polish TSO should stick to stipulations of Art. 4.3 of Directive 2005/89/EC „… Member States shall not discriminate between cross border contracts and national contracts” Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07 TOE. Warszawa, 2006

Thank you for your attention! Towarzystwo Obrotu Energią ul. Czackiego 7/9/11, 00 – 043 Warszawa tel. + 48 22 827 57 93 fax + 48 22 826 61 55 e-mail: toe@toe.pl Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, 6.06.07