A Solid Economy for Spending Although the US economic conditions are never perfect, all the trends indicate most households should have the consumer confidence and incomes to spend carefully, but broadly, during the 2017 back-to-school shopping season. The 4.3% unemployment mark for May was the lowest during the past 16 years. Gallup’s US Job Creation Index was +37 for May, the same as March’s record level. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports a 5.8% increase in new home sales and a 4.4% increase in existing home sales on an annualized basis from February to March 2017.

Fabulous Forecast eMarketer Retail has observed these positive economic trends too, and has forecast a 4.0% increase during the July–August period of the Back-to-School 2017 shopping season, or a 250% increase over 2016’s increase of 1.6%.   The estimated total forecast for retail sales during the July–August 2017 period of $857.18 billion would set a new record, surpassing 2016’s total of $824.56 billion. The 5 core product categories that dominate back-to-school shopping include apparel and accessories; books, music and video; computers and consumer electronics; office equipment and supplies; and toys, hobbies and sporting goods.

What 2016 Taught Us According to a Bazaarvoice infographic, 2016 Back-to-School spending increased 11% to a total of $75.8 billion. If it increases that much again for the 2017 shopping season, then the total would exceed $83 billion. Data from Deloitte reveals that there are mini-seasons within the overall Back-to-School shopping period, with 65% of shoppers purchasing at various points throughout the summer, and 31% completing their shopping after the school year begins. Mondays had the highest Bazaarvoice page views for consumer electronics during 2016; Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays for office supplies, especially during August; and Labor Day weekend and the last week of September for apparel and footwear.

Attitudes and Motivations Consumers with school-age children younger than 18 are 62% more likely to consider advertising as the important determinant of their purchasing behavior and 28% are more likely to use the Internet for information/reviews. Consumers with a child who began college within the last 12 months are 82% more likely to use the Internet for shopping and retail, and to look for deals. The NPD Group reports that backpack sales increased 81% during the 2016 Back-To-School shopping season, with 38% of those purchases including another item. 4% of office supply sales occurred at dollar stores, a 24% increase over 2015.

Oldest Gen Zers Are Now Adult Consumers The oldest Generation Z members are now of college age, and many more are in high school, which means the percentage of this generation that earns and spends its own consumer dollars continues to increase. According to a January 2017 IBM Institute survey of Gen Zers, 66% of them said they agree that “It matters to me that the brand sells high quality products” and 56% want “The store experience to be fun, so they won’t be bored.” The survey also found that 98% of Gen Zers prefer to shop in a store “most of the time” (67%) and “some of the time” (31%); using a Web browser, 76%; using an app, 47%; and by phone, 25%.

Advertising Strategies Because there are mini-selling periods during the Back-To-School season, advertisers should hold as much as a third of their total ad budget for the period for September, especially the end of the month when significant clothing purchases occur. It’s important to create an in-store experience for Gen Zers, who prefer to shop in stores, but don’t want to be bored. Create a section of the store just for them; install a few TVs, showing music videos; feature a teen fashion consultant a few Saturdays. Consider a “Shop with a Grandparent” promotion, co-promoting with a nearby restaurant by providing a coupon/discount for a lunch, or possibly a local movie theater. Promote it as saving time for busy parents and an opportunity for grandparent/grandchild bonding.

New Media Strategies It’s clear that digital media (email and social media campaigns) are absolutely essential to a successful Back-To-School season. Upload product content directed at parents that focuses on the durability and safety features of products. Based on the data on page 4 of the Profiler, advertisers should offer digital payment methods and digital shopping features that appeal to Millennials and Gen Zers, and actively promote them in social media, especially with videos. Advertisers can create a shopping list page on their Website, with Back-To-School items grouped by categories with check boxes, so shoppers can create a custom shopping list they can save and access from their smartphone in-store. Promote heavily on social media.