Polling During the Nomination Season

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Presentation transcript:

Polling During the Nomination Season Travis N. Ridout

Super Tuesday Results Obama won 13 states, Clinton won 8, 1 undecided McCain won 9 states, Romney 7, Huckabee 5

Projected Democratic Delegate Count Candidate Delegates Hillary Clinton 823 Barack Obama 741 2,026 needed to win

Projected GOP Delegate Count Candidate Delegates Mike Huckabee 176 John McCain 680 Ron Paul 16 Mitt Romney 270 1,191 needed to win

Poll Predictive Success State Poll Average Result Alabama Clinton +2 Obama +14 Arizona Clinton +6 Clinton +9 California Clinton +2.6 Clinton +10 Connecticut Clinton +4 Obama +4 Georgia Obama +15 Obama +35 Illinois Obama +33 Obama +31 Massachusetts Clinton +12.2 Clinton +15 Missouri Obama +1 New Jersey Clinton +7 New York Clinton +17.2 Clinton +17 Tennessee Clinton +13

Upcoming calendar Saturday - Washington - Louisiana - Nebraska Sunday - Maine Tuesday - Maryland, Virginia, DC

NH v. SC polls New Hampshire - average poll error: 9.6 percent South Carolina - average poll error: 16.6 percent

Questions?