Public Opinion and Political Behaviors Unit IIC Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Political Efficacy Voting in elections Learning and understanding political knowledge Having political discussions Attending political meetings Forming interest groups Contacting public officials Campaigning for a candidate, political party, ballot issue Financial contributions Running for office Protesting public policies and/or officials

Voting - The Democratic Process Voting exemplifies a “government by the people” The American electorate determine policy and policymakers Suffrage is the right to vote - regulated by the states Vote in local, state, and national elections

Voter Requirements An American citizen of 18 years or older may vote States determine registration requirements and qualifications Voter ID laws State residency requirement of usually 30 days Prisoners Motor-Voter Law (National Voter Registration Act of 1993) Register to vote when applying/renewing driver’s license Register by mail

Expansion of Suffrage Religious and property qualifications eliminated by 1800 15th Amendment (1870) Guaranteed blacks the right to vote 19th Amendment (1920) Guaranteed women the right to vote 23rd Amendment (1961) Guaranteed right to vote for D.C. 24th Amendment (1964) Prohibited poll taxes Harper v. Virginia Board of Elections (1966)* Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Acts of 1965 Eliminated voting restrictions for blacks Grandfather clauses, white primaries, literacy tests 26th Amendment (1971) Guaranteed right to vote for 18 years and older

Who Votes? High Level of Education Higher Incomes White-Collar Workers Older Generations Whites Women Religious Union Members Strong Community Members Strong Political Party Members Competitive Election Districts

Why Won’t People Vote? Negative campaigns Numerous and frequent elections Ballot fatigue Lack of party identification Similarity between candidates Mistrust in government Apathy or Status Quo Lack of political efficacy Voter registration difficulties Feeling of not belonging to a community

Voter Turnout

How People Vote Vote based on the individual Vote based on political party Vote based on the issues Vote based on campaigns Vote based on coalitions

Voting Based on the Individual Rational choice Voters choose a candidate or party based on how they and their families will benefit Consider past performance, contemporary issues, and current situations, party leadership and key players Not necessarily subject to factors such as age, race, gender, party identification, etc. Believe parties are not very ideologically different

Voting Based on Political Party Party affiliation arguably the primary determinant for a voter Most voters are Democrats, but not as firmly dedicated Republicans successful with independents and moderates and have higher voter turnout Split-ticket voting

Voting Based on the Issues Prospective Voting Vote based on information of issues and candidates Ex. Pro-life citizen votes for Bush over Gore in 2000 Retrospective Voting Vote based on past events whether successful or failed Ex. The economy suffered during Bush’s (R) administration hurting McCain’s (R) campaign against Obama (D) in 2008

Voting Based on the Campaign Reawakens partisan loyalties of voters Provides voters chance to witness how candidates handle the spotlight and responsibility Allows voters to judge a candidate’s character and values

Voting Based on a Coalition Democrats Strong loyalties among blacks and Jews Support for minority-based policies (affirmative action, civil rights) However, limited popular contribution Moderate support among most hispanics Support for pro-immigration policies Low voter turnout Catholics and unions divided Based on conservative stance on social issues (abortion) Republicans Strong loyalties among businesses and conservatives Support for tax cuts and limited economic regulation Social conservatives (evangelicals) Moderate support among farmers and professionals Farmers and professionals can switch based on economy

Types of Elections Primary Elections Nominating elections which voters choose which candidate from each party to run in general election Closed Primary Only voters registered in the party may vote for candidate Open Primary Voters choose whichever candidates of either party by selecting party in the voting booth Blanket Primary Voters choose whichever candidate of any party for different positions Runoff Primary Election between top two candidates who received the most votes but neither received the majority of votes California Democratic Party v. Jones (2000)

2008 Democratic Primary Election California ballot

Types of Elections General Elections Voters choose between all candidates nominated by political party or running as independents Anyone of any or no political party may choose whichever candidate no matter party affiliation

Types of Elections Special Elections Voters must decide on an issue or a candidate in special circumstances not related to a primary or general election Initiative Citizens propose a new law with enough signatures Referendum Legislatures refer a law to be voted by the people Recall Citizens petition to hold an election to choose to remove a public official Special elections are only held at the state or local levels U.S. Senator and U.S. House vacancies

Congressional Elections Held every two years on even-numbered years Every two years to elect Representatives Senatorial elections may be held (1/3rd of Senators) Mid-Term Elections “Off-Year” Elections held between presidential elections Lower voter turnout

Congressional Elections Incumbency Effect Generally win elections due to low voter turn out, success in office, or good campaigning Reelection Rates of U.S. House and U.S. Senate (1964-2012) Franking privilege Free mailings to constituents Coattail Effect Weak or less known candidates win based on success of popular presidential candidate through party affiliation

Congressional Apportionment and Districts Congress established number of representatives for House at 435 (1911) Each state with at least one representative Currently, one representative per 709,760 Reapportionment every 10 years based on national census Redistricting States draw congressional districts Districts must be relatively equal

Congressional Apportionment and Districts Consequences Gerrymandering Drawing districts to favor a political party or group Independent commissions Baker v. Carr (1962) Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) Reynolds v. Sims (1964) Shaw v. Reno (1993)

Florida’s 2000-2010 U.S. House Districts

Florida 2010-2020 U.S. House Districts

Florida’s Redistricting and Gerrymandering 2015 Florida State Representative Janet Adkins (R) on U.S. Representative Corrine Brown (D-FL 5)

Congressional Elections Primary Elections Candidate gathers signatures through a following to be placed on ballot Primary election determines party nominee

Presidential Elections Held every four years Phases of Presidential Candidacy: Exploration Announcement Primaries and Caucuses Nominating Conventions General Election Campaign Electoral College

Presidential Election Exploration Does a candidate have enough political and financial support? Sets up an exploratory committee to find out Allows for growth of candidacy with media coverage, national attention

Presidential Election Announcement Candidate decides to run for office Sets up press conference to announce candidacy for president Formal declaration as a national spectacle to propose agenda

Presidential Election Campaign Strategies Staff Political consultant Finance chairperson Communications Director Press Secretary Visibility and Appeal and Endorsements Pollster and Tracking Polls Focus Groups Get Out the Vote (GOTV)

Presidential Election Primaries and Caucuses Voters from primary states vote for the party nominee State delegates throw support toward primary vote winner Most commonly used method Front-loading Howard Dean Scream (2004) Caucuses Historically, state and party leaders met and chose nominee Very few states use caucuses Iowa’s caucus is the first major electoral event usually determining the presidential candidate for each party

Presidential Election Nominating Conventions Political parties hold national nominating convention attended by state delegates Choose presidential nominee, vice-presidential nominee, party platform, unify party Democratic Party and Republican Party do not use the same system of choosing a nominee…

Republican National Convention Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates Unofficially determined by results of presidential primaries In 2012, the Republican nominee required 1,144 out of 2,286

Democratic National Convention Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates State primary results determine candidate pledges “Superdelegates,” not obligated by state results and chosen based on political status, can determine party nominee In 2012, the Democratic nominee required 2,777 out of 5,556

Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning Position Issues Issue which divides voters and candidates have opposing views Examples: Abortion: pro-choice or pro-life Marriage: man/woman or heterosexual/homosexual Valence Issues Universally shared views and voters determine which candidate is more likely to address/solve Campaigns have recently concentrated more on valence issues Low unemployment Low crime

Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning Television Paid advertisement - spots News broadcasts - visuals Debates Televised or town hall Gain exposure, usually for lesser-knowns Could lead to showcase flaws Rick Perry Gaffe Direct Mail/Internet Lists used to direct specific issue-based ads to specific demographics Useful to earn campaign funds Nixon - Kennedy Debate 1960

1988 Presidential Campaign Vice President George Bush (R) vs. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (D) Read My Lips Tank Ad Willie Horton Ad

Campaign Finance Congressional and Presidential “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” - Jesse Unruh (D) Open Secrets Sources of Campaign Money Campaign Finance Rules Campaign Finance Reform Effect of Campaign Finance

Sources of Campaign Money Hard money Financial contribution directly given to candidate Must disclose donor information Matching funds Federal funds matching presidential candidate contributions Candidates may deny the option and spend unlimited amounts No matching funds for congressional candidates Soft money Financial contribution given to political party for party-building activities Unlimited amounts Independent expenditures Money spent on behalf of a candidate by an interest group not directly affiliated with a candidate’s campaign Dark money Unlimited donations to social welfare and trade association groups from interest groups Do not need to disclose donors to public Individual contributions Official donations to candidate campaigns from private citizens Largest source of regulated campaign funds Political Action Committees (PACS) Official groups designed to raise campaign contributions directly for a candidate Must disclose donor information Super PACs Independent-expenditure only groups

Campaign Finance Reform Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA) and 1974 Amendments Required disclosure of donors Limits on individual contributions Established Federal Election Commission (FEC) Buckley v. Valeo (1976) Constitutional: Disclosure of contributions Express advocacy words: Elect, vote for, defeat, support, vote against, reject, Smith for Congress, cast your ballot for Unconstitutional: Limits on campaign expenditures

Campaign Finance Reform Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA)/ McCain-Feingold Act Banned soft money to national parties Restricted PAC campaign ads and issue advocacy ads Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) Overturned restriction on corporation and union contributions allowing unlimited financial support for campaign support ads Ruled unconstitutional based on First Amendment freedom of speech “Money is Speech”

Campaign Finance Limits   To each candidate or candidate committee per election To national party committee per calendar year To state, district & local party committee per calendar year To any other political committee per calendar year Special Limits Individual may give $2,600* $32,400* $10,000 (combined limit) $5,000 $123,200* overall biennial limit: $48,600* to all candidates $74,600* to all PACs and parties National Party Committee may give No limit $45,400* to Senate candidate per campaign State, District & Local Party Committee may give $5,000 (combined limit) PAC (multicandidate) may give $15,000 PAC (not multicandidate) may give Authorized Campaign Committee may give $2,000

Campaign Spots 2012 Mitt Romney Campaign Spot Official television spot in direct coordination with the Romney presidential campaign 2012 Pro-Mitt Romney SuperPAC Spot Restore Our Future (SuperPAC) established by Romney supporters 2010 Americans for Prosperity Issue Advocacy Spot Americans for Prosperity (SuperPAC) established by the Koch Brothers as a political advocacy group

Presidential Election General Election Electoral College Majority of electoral votes - 270 Winner-Take-All Nebraska and Maine* Campaign in Electoral-rich states Top 11 states would give a candidate 270 electoral votes http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bDDz California (55), Texas (38), New York (29), Florida (29), Illinois (20), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), New Jersey (14) Swing States Florida in 2000 Election Ohio in 2004 Election 2016: Florida (29), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Nevada (6)

As Ohio Goes, So Goes the Nation

Presidential Candidates and State Campaigns Number of Hand Waves depicts number of presidential and vice-presidential candidate visits in last five weeks of election of 2004 Number of Dollar Signs depicts number of presidential campaign spending in last five weeks of election of 2004

2000 Election - Gore/Bush

2004 Election - Bush/Kerry

2008 Election - Obama/McCain

Electoral Map (2012)

2012 Electoral Map by District

Results of Elections Realigning Election Dealigning Election Minority power wins majority with new voter coalition and maintains subsequent power Occurs due to serious or extreme conditions and events Dealigning Election Voters less dependent on partisan loyalties Split-ticket voting

Realigning/Critical Election Democratic-Republicans sweep the White House and Congress from the Federalists 1824/1828 Elections Leads to split of Democratic-Republicans into Democrats and Whigs 1860 Election Republican Party replaces the Whigs against the Democrats 1896 Election Tactics change toward campaign finance and swing-state campaign stops 1932 Election Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) establishes new Democratic coalition of blacks, farmers, southerners, Catholics, Jews, unions, and urbanites Democrats win landslide victories and majorities in White House and Congress 1968 Election Republican use of the Southern Strategy 1994 Mid-Term Elections Republican Revolution

Election of 1928

Realignment Election of 1932