Second GTE+ Workshop on the European Ten Year Network Development Plan 2009 Brussels, 29th April 2009 Presentation by Martin Altstätter Chairman Forecasting Task Force

Table of Content: Eurogas experience in forecasting & preliminary remarks Eurogas demand forecasts Considerations for future Eurogas outlook Preliminary comments on GTE+ results Conclusions

1) Eurogas experience in forecasting: Eurogas forecasting Task Force Work on long-term demand and supply in EU27 until 2030 Last forecast published in 2007 (see Eurogas Annual Report) Preliminary remarks: Eurogas congratulates GTE+ for Preliminary Report Eurogas thanks GTE+ for possibility to comment Eurogas recalls its position that the 10 year plan should reflect a European dimension Evidence of improved co-operation and co-ordination between TSOs

2) Eurogas Demand forecasts Dynamic growth of 1990 will slow down Main driver in future gas demand is power generation 625 603 578 535 493 438

Comparison Commission – Eurogas – IEA Primary Energy Consumption of Natural Gas => Compared to recent forecasts, Eurogas represents the “upper part” IEA; 517 445

3) Considerations for future Eurogas outlook To reflect current developments, we decided to revise our long term outlook for demand and supply in the EU Expected results in 2010 The following aspects are to be discussed in this context: Impact of the economic crisis in short and medium term Growth of gas demand in the residential and commercial sector is limited by saturation trends in some national markets, more intensive energy savings and fiercer competition by renewables Are the developments in the power generation sufficiently dynamic for natural gas ? Price competitiveness, evolution of ETS, expansion of renewables and political choices on nuclear are to be monitored Uncertainties of demand predictions are significant

4) Preliminary comments: 10 year plan should be seen as basis for further requirements on cross-border capacity Eurogas encourages further participation of TSOs Work on a more coherent and consistent methodology for future exercise Further information on assumptions and definitions is needed Favor an EU approach going beyond the sum of individual TSOs projections (European dimension) Need to ensure comparativeness with existent scenarios (ie: present EU27 totals)

5) Conclusions Taking into consideration current uncertainties in future demand evolution, the Eurogas experts will look closer at the GTE+ preliminary figures and send comments as soon as possible

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