Jennifer Ward-Batts March 21, 2017 Using Compulsory Schooling in Turkey to Examine the Causal Effects of Education on Attitudes Jennifer Ward-Batts March 21, 2017

Literature: “Effects” of Education on Attitudes Too much to list here!

Research Question: What Are the Causal Effects of Education? Correlation between education and attitudes in cross-section data may be spurious I use a large increase in compulsory schooling in Turkey to isolate the causal effect of education Using instrumental variables method

1997 Education Reform in Turkey Prior to change, 5 years compulsory After change, 8 years compulsory Should enter school in the year in which they reach age 6 (i.e., 72 months), => 1986 birth cohort is first treated cohort But entry age is in practice flexible. Using other data, I show that we should take 1987 birth cohort as the 1st treated cohort (next slide) I have found with other data, as have others, that there was a large increase in educational attainment among the “treated” cohorts

1997 Education Reform in Turkey(2) Who is “treated”? If enrolled in 1st year in fall 1993, will complete 4th year May 1997 => first cohort to affected Using enrollment rates in 1993 & assuming pattern was the same in 1991-1993, I can deduce the following: 80% of 1986 birth cohort (age 7 in 1993) affected by reform 2/3 of 1985 birth cohort (age 8 in 1993) unaffected So could take 1986 as first treated cohort. Alternate: take 1987 as first fully treated cohort and omit 1986 cohort from the analysis Fall 1993 Fall 1998 Birth cohort Girls Boys age 6 1987 21 19 1992 28 29 age 7 1986 60 64 1991 69 70 age 8 1985 90 92 1990 82 91

Data World Values Survey for Turkey 2007 & 2011 2001 data does not include anyone from the treated cohorts, but can use it later to look at trends in older cohorts

Estimation Method & Notes (1) Many questions in the survey have 4 possible responses: Very important or Strongly Agree Rather important Agree Not very important Disagree Not at all important Strongly Disagree Some questions are on 10 point scales Whether religious person is binary I use linear (probability) model for present estimates

Estimation Method & Notes (2) I first estimate a linear OLS model I then estimate IV (instrumental variables) a two stage model that first estimates education using the policy treatment and all other independent variables 2nd stage is linear model using the estimated value of education In further work, I would like to estimate an IV version of ordered probit, which would better fit the outcome, but may have too few observations.

1st stage regression of middleschool completion on “treatment” & controls treated4 0.0722**   (0.0320) female -0.0959*** (0.0317) D2011 0.101*** Observations 629 R-squared 0.092 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Model also includes constant and region dummies.

Religion-related (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV Importance: religion   (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV Importance: religion Religious person God important in life Middle school 0.305*** -0.568 -0.189*** -0.830* -0.656*** 0.650 (0.0706) (0.891) (0.0380) (0.491) (0.152) (1.891) female -0.0290 -0.141 0.0199 -0.0369 0.140 0.298 (0.0568) (0.110) (0.0306) (0.0629) (0.123) (0.228) D2011 0.0119 0.0867 0.0776** 0.163** -0.0486 -0.213 (0.0571) (0.114) (0.0308) (0.0667) (0.238) Constant 1.289*** 1.809*** 0.945*** 1.203*** 9.923*** 8.916*** (0.171) (0.574) (0.0798) (0.318) (0.367) (1.210) # obs 703 628 693 618 694 620

Gender related (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV (7) (8)IV (9) (10)IV   (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV (7) (8)IV (9) (10)IV housewife men_pol univ_boy men_exec jobscarce_men Middle school 0.196** 1.658 0.292*** 0.0855 0.0248 0.274 0.181** 0.677 0.326*** 0.741 (0.0771) (1.178) (0.0861) (0.996) (0.0895) (1.050) (0.0847) (1.017) (0.0799) (0.938) female 0.190*** 0.337** 0.411*** 0.393*** 0.221*** 0.272** 0.373*** 0.455*** 0.352*** 0.408*** (0.0624) (0.140) (0.0689) (0.120) (0.0718) (0.129) (0.0680) (0.121) (0.0644) (0.115) D2011 0.0101 -0.181 -0.23*** -0.193 -0.38*** -0.43*** -0.22*** -0.265* -0.188*** -0.25** (0.0628) (0.147) (0.0694) (0.137) (0.0722) (0.134) (0.0683) (0.136) (0.0649) (0.123) Constant 1.833*** 0.795 1.623*** 2.201*** 3.306*** 3.087*** 1.977*** 2.169*** 1.147*** 1.151* (0.191) (0.752) (0.206) (0.633) (0.216) (0.671) (0.179) (0.643) (0.168) (0.607) # obs 688 613 689 616 697 623 686 695 621

How’s Life? (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV (7) (8)IV VARIABLES   (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV (7) (8)IV VARIABLES lifesatisfaction happiness health freedom Middle school -0.163 -2.975 0.163** 1.316 0.0043 0.507 -0.116 0.411 (0.194) (2.597) (0.0732) (1.005) (0.0710) (0.962) (0.195) (2.324) female 0.0132 -0.297 0.0313 0.166 0.190*** 0.242** -0.0857 -0.0284 (0.156) (0.320) (0.0589) (0.122) (0.0569) (0.112) (0.283) D2011 -0.155 0.0820 0.0266 -0.0846 -0.0219 -0.0776 0.115 0.177 (0.157) (0.334) (0.0592) (0.127) (0.0571) (0.118) (0.295) Constant 7.727*** 8.469*** 1.562*** 1.192* 1.812*** 2.171*** 7.392*** 6.338*** (0.470) (1.683) (0.652) (0.171) (0.630) (0.424) (1.489) # obs 703 629 702 627 697 622 698 624

What’s Important? (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV (7) (8)IV work pol   (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV (7) (8)IV work pol family friends Middle school -0.193** 0.248 -0.189** 0.896 -0.00741 0.536 -0.0154 -0.498 (0.0781) (0.918) (0.0888) (1.143) (0.0211) (0.341) (0.0535) (0.638) female 0.309*** 0.367*** 0.183** 0.256* -0.0359** 0.0121 -0.00200 -0.0541 (0.0629) (0.113) (0.0715) (0.141) (0.0170) (0.0421) (0.0430) (0.0784) D2011 0.143** 0.112 -0.395*** -0.471*** 0.0294* -0.0389 0.0607 0.104 (0.0631) (0.118) (0.0718) (0.147) (0.0171) (0.0438) (0.0432) (0.0842) Constant 1.680*** 1.174** 2.929*** 1.806** 1.008*** 0.700*** 1.303*** 1.599*** (0.189) (0.592) (0.187) (0.737) (0.0446) (0.221) (0.130) (0.412) # obs 703 628 702 704 629