South Derbyshire Partnership Sustainable Development Group Meeting November 21st 2011 Committee Room 10am An impact appraisal of public sector job cutbacks for residents and workers in South Derbyshire District. Jonathon Little

What were the study aims? Interrogate the statistics & evidence is there likely to be a strong negative influence on the local economy? Develop appropriate policy response for the District and LEP partners – especially Skills & Business Starts Increase awareness of the composites of local GDP Recognise any areas where further research is needed

What Evidence was used? Comparative studies - BIS produced a national study for distribution of the RGF funding based on Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey and the Annual Business Inquiry; BBC and Experian study; Chamber of Commerce Quarterly studies, etc. ONS Census data 2001 and mid-year estimates, Labour Force Study, Neighbourhood Statistics Average Earnings etc. More “localised” data: Derby & Derbyshire Skills Needs Study 2009; emda study of commuting patterns; Post Code analysis of SDDC workforce. Interviews with HVM Jobcentre plus; PCT etc. Press cuttings and internet trawl for news announcements.

Some Key Findings SDDC does have a lower than average quotient of public sector workers – limited civic and “public service architecture” BUT education, social care and primary health workforces aren’t always counted for policy purposes like RGF etc

Some further Key Findings The initial retrenchment headlines were much lower than originally forecast; e.g. County Council Forecast 2000 jobs lost – 800 this year actual 637, compulsory redundancies 72; Word of Warning (1) Low hanging fruit; WOW (2) Possible on-goings; WOW (3) Private sector slowdown in certain sectors like construction is starting to bite Which agencies contracts are with not where firms are based 63% of SD resident incomes are from jobs outside the District There are around 2,200 public sector jobs in and around the District that may be vulnerable 34,200 12,700 7,100 61,400 Based on 2001 Census Workforce data N= 12,751

Projections and Extrapolations

Conclusions and Policy Options The local private sector job growth in the area has been at a rate that might absorb the cuts – but over half private sector employers not warm to ex-public sector workers This could be changing No evidence of a stimulus to Business Start-ups locally and limited evidence based on purely public job losses More work is needed to compare forecasts with actual public sector losses especially Jobcentre plus data There are important re-skilling initiatives going on in neighbouring authorities which should be investigated further and if needed adapted to SD An alert and monitoring system needs to be set up with large public sector employers “on the doorstep” to see how things could develop