Trends in Energy and Transport Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics Group Vienna University of Technology 5th MacroTrend Conference on Energy and Sustainability: Paris 2017

Alternative automotive technologies Conclusions Content Introduction Policies and targets Alternative fuels Biofuels Alternative automotive technologies Electric vehicles Conclusions

Countries with largest conventional oil reserves Introduction 93% oil products' share of final energy consumption for transport, making the sector the least-diversified 28% the amount that transport energy and CO2 emissions have increased since 2000 Countries with largest conventional oil reserves

GHG by sector, EU-28

GHG

EU policies and targets 20-20-20 40-27-27 10% BF: 5.75% ICE -50% in city No ICE in city 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050 20% GHG (2008) 60% GHG (1990) The White Paper on Transport Policy

Biofuel Source: BP,2017

World land use

EU policies and targets 20-20-20 40-27-27 10% Targets for 2030 a 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels at least a 27% share of renewable energy consumption at least 27% energy savings compared with the BAU scenario. No sub-target on renewable energy in transport (e.g. biofuels)! BF: 5.75% 2010 2015 2020 2030

Electric vehicles Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change & Call to Action: more than 100 million EVs 400 million two and three-wheelers

Level of electrification of electric vehicles ICE vehicles HEV PHEV REX BEV FCV Zero-emission EVs Level of electrification of electric vehicles

Economic aspects Total costs of service mobility of various types of EV in comparison to ICE cars

Scenario for development of investment costs a…………specific costs of the first unit b…………learning rate x ………..cumulative (unit) production Technological learning: (Power: 80 kW) FCV BEV

Environmental assessment Well-to-Wheel (WTW) Primary energy source Fuel Mobility TTW_fuel Car TTW_car Well-to-Tank (WTT) Tank-to-Wheel (TTW)

Environmental assessment CO2 emissions per km driven for various types of EV in comparison to conventional cars (power of car: 80kW)

Electricity mix (2014) Data source: tsp,2014

Environmental assessment CO2 emissions per km driven for BEVs powered by grid electricity in different countries

Conclusions Biofuels …second generation EVs …cost reductions, improvement of battery characteristics as well as development of infrastructure New policy design….most of the policies implemented will be abolished with the increasing number of EVs Full environmental benefit – only if EVs are powered by electricity generated from renewable energy sources

ajanovic@eeg.tuwien.ac.at