Lecture 23. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY

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Presentation transcript:

Lecture 23. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Economics 1490 THE WORLD ECONOMY: GROWTH OR STAGNATION? with Professor Dale W. Jorgenson Lecture 23. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY November 16, 2017 Harvard University Department of Economics Fall 2017

THE WORLD ECONOMY: GROWTH OR STAGNATION? A. Comparing Economies B. U.S. Crisis and Recovery C. European Slowdown D. Asian Economic Miracles E. Sustainability of Economic Growth F. World Economic Outlook

E. SUSTAINABILITY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 21. Demographic Projections 22. Investing in Human Capital 23. Fiscal Sustainability 24. Environmental Sustainability 25. Ending Extreme Poverty

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: OUTLINE Fiscal Sustainability in the World Economy Fiscal Sustainability in the United States President Obama's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

FISCAL BALANCES, 2010-2018; OVERALL

FISCAL BALANCES, 2010-2018; ADJUSTED

GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT, 2010-2018

FISCAL TRENDS IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES

FISCAL TRENDS IN EMERGING MARKET AND MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES

FISCAL TRENDS IN LOW-INCOME DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN THE WORLD ECONOMY: SUMMARY Sustainability Differs Widely Among Economies The U.S. Has Preserved Sustainability through a Series of Bipartisan Budget Agreements, Beginning in 2011. Due to Optimistic Prospects for Growth India Stands Out among Emerging Economies as Having a Sustainable Fiscal Policy.

FEDERAL BUDGET UNDER THE EXTENDED BASELINE

KEY PROJECTIONS

FEDERAL DEBT, SPENDING AND REVENUES

FEDERAL DEBT, SPENDING AND REVENUES (continued)

POPULATION

GROWTH OF POTENTIAL GDP

ASSUMPTIONS

SPENDING AND REVENUES

COMPOSITION

FINANCIAL MEASURES

FEDERAL SPENDING

PROJECTED SPENDING

OTHER FEDERAL

SIZE OF POLICY CHANGES

TIMING

CBO’S LONG TERM OUTLOOK Extended Baseline Scenario Outlook for Spending Outlook for Revenue Policy Choices for Fiscal Consolidation

FIVE-PART PLAN

HIGHLIGHTS