National Agricultural Statistics Service United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service 2017 Kentucky Crop Weather Eastern Mountain Region March 28, 2017

Introductions/Agenda Overview of Crop Weather Survey Review of Reporting Process Changes for 2017 Extension Feedback Questions If time permits, slides in the ‘Backup Information’ section will be covered to further explain specific progress and condition questions and how to answer

Crop Weather Overview Provides current information on general agriculture situation within a state Crop Progress Crop, Pasture and Livestock Conditions Forage Supplies Used by producers and agri-businesses to assess current growing conditions and their impact on commodity supplies Used by federal, state, and local government agencies, educational institutions, and agricultural economists for planning, decision making, and research Since the 1950’s has provided information between major crop reports. Conducted in all states. Over 400 current subscribers to the KY Crop Weather Publication (to receive automatic email when publication is available) One of the most requested historical datasets. Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (USDA & NOAA) - To keep the Nation's growers, exporters, USDA commodity analysts, as well as the Secretary of Agriculture and top staff informed of worldwide weather developments and their effects on crops and livestock.

Crop Weather Results NASS Statisticians review survey responses for individual commodities and set Kentucky estimates for each progress and condition item Higher response rates improve the accuracy of estimates County weights are used to account for commodity presence University of Kentucky Agricultural Weather Center (UKAWC) provides weekly and monthly weather information Includes precipitation and temperature data from weather stations, and notable weather events for Kentucky NASS State and National Publications (4:00 PM ET) UKAWC: http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/kywkcrxx.shtml NASS National Publication: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php NASS Kentucky Publication: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kentucky/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.php

Crop Weather Publications State Reports - Reports and publications can be found on the Kentucky webpage within the NASS website - Or subscribe to receive select reports automatically by email Link to Reports: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kentucky/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.php Link to Subscribe: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kentucky/Subscribe_to_KY_Reports/index.php

Crop Weather Estimates Quick Stats - Historical Database of NASS Estimates Link: https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/

Crop Weather Survey Crop Progress Crop Conditions General Comments Human Activity (Planting, harvesting, etc.) Phenological Development (Crop emergence, maturation, etc.) Major crops for Kentucky: Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, Tobacco Crop Conditions Percent of a particular crop that is in each of five condition categories (Very Poor to Excellent) Also includes soil moisture condition (Very Short to Surplus) General Comments Field activities, impacts on crops, unusual events (weather related changes, insect and disease pressures, other factors) Any comments on agricultural events and/or changes over the reporting period are very helpful. Such information is extremely valuable for better representing current activities and conditions across the state.

Reporting Process Survey is conducted weekly during the growing season from April through November Sunday reference date During winter months, the survey is conducted monthly (December/January/February/March) Survey is available online through the NASS website Email reminders Thursday and Monday (Tuesday, if federal holiday) Survey code is needed to sign-in Link: https://www.agcounts.usda.gov/agcounts/base/login * If survey code is ever needed, please contact the NASS Eastern Mountain Region Office (see ‘Questions’ slide of the presentation for email/phone information).

Reporting Example Go to USDA NASS website URL: www.nass.usda.gov and hover over the ‘Surveys’ tab along the green banner about mid-screen. Click on the white arrow in the blue circle.

Reporting Example Then follow the instructions for Online Survey Response. Click on Continue.

Reporting Example Click the arrow to complete the survey.

Reporting Example Now enter your 17-digit Survey Code provided by NASS. This can be found in the letter that was mailed out to each extension office. If you do not know or can’t find your Survey Code, please contact the Eastern Mountain Regional Field Office (see ‘Questions’ slide of the presentation for email/phone information). Survey code is case sensitive You can also bookmark this URL for future weekly reporting.

Reporting Example Upon entering your survey code, you should see a screen similar to the following. Select the current week. After choosing the Crop Progress and Condition link, you will see the page with your contact information. If you need to make any changes to your information you can so do on this screen. However, if you leave your position or move to a different county please contact the Eastern Mountain Regional Office to update active or inactive respondents (see ‘Questions’ slide of the presentation for email/phone information).

Reporting Example

Reporting Example You can start reporting and come back late to finish. However, once you submit the report you cannot change your responses. ***If you need to make updates to your report after you have submitted -- please call the NASS Eastern Mountain Regional Office at 1-800-928-5277.

Changes for 2017 No major changes from 2016 Initial reminder email will be sent Thursday night instead of Thursday morning Reminder email for any non-respondents will be sent out Sunday night or Monday morning Phone call reminders will go out Monday morning around 9am Respondents have until 10:30am on Monday to report online If there are ever any changes in County Extension Agents or preferred contact information, please contact the NASS Eastern Mountain Region Office (see ‘Questions’ slide of the presentation for email/phone information)

Extension Feedback Reporting Process Publication Format Other Topics Useful Charts, Tables, Content Other Topics We are very interested in hearing your feedback on the Crop Weather reporting process, the survey format, and the publication. Please feel free to bring up any other topics as well.

Questions Kentucky Crop Weather Contacts: Kate Moore kate.moore@nass.usda.gov Sam McClain Samuel.mcclain@nass.usda.gov Phone: 1-800-928-5277 If there are ever any changes in County Extension Agents or preferred contact information, please contact the NASS Eastern Mountain Region Office.

Progress Reference Crop Progress Corn Stages Asked: Planted, Emerged, Silking, Milking, Dough, Dent, Mature, Harvested Soybean Stages Asked: Planted, Emerged, Blooming, Setting Pods, Coloring, Dropping Leaves, Harvested Tobacco Stages Asked: Transplants Seeded, Set, Blooming, Topped, Cut, Stripped Wheat Stages Asked: Planted, Emerged, Headed, Coloring, Mature, Harvested - Example: Sum of the stages asked do not have to add to 100 Corn – Planted = 80 Corn – Emerged = 60 Corn – Silking = 20 Corn – Milking= 10 - Example: Percents should indicate the progress of field activities or crop development Crop progress questions are typically asked until the state average reaches >95% Special Situations: Planted: If half of the total current year acreage expected is planted, a value of 50 percent should be used. However, if weather conditions alter plans such that intentions are prevented, a 100 percent should be used when planting stops. Harvested: Crop harvesting progress covers intended acres, not the current acres. If, for example, half of the total current year soybean acreage is harvested, a value of 50 percent should be used. If weather conditions alter plans such that intentions are prevented, a 100 percent should be used when harvesting stops.

Progress Reference Five year average of corn progress stages in Kentucky (from 2012 – 2016 crop weather reporting cycles).

Topsoil and Subsoil Moisture Condition Reference Topsoil and Subsoil Moisture Topsoil defined as the top 6 inches and Subsoil defined as the area from 6 inches below the surface to a depth of 3 to 4 feet. Categories are defined as follows (equal to 100%): Very Short - Soil moisture supplies are significantly less than what is required for normal plant development. Growth has been stopped or nearly so and plants are showing visible signs of moisture stress. Under these conditions, plants will quickly suffer irreparable damage. Short - Soil dry. Seed germination and/or normal crop growth and development would be curtailed.   Adequate - Soil moist. Seed germination and/or crop growth and development would be normal or unhindered. Surplus - Soil wet. Fields may be muddy and will generally be unable to absorb additional moisture. Young developing crops may be yellowing from excess moisture.

Condition Reference Topsoil Moisture graph from 2016 crop weather reporting cycle.

General Crop Conditions (and Pasture) Condition Reference General Crop Conditions (and Pasture) Categories are defined as follows (equal to 100%): Very Poor - Extreme loss of yield potential, complete or near complete crop failure. (For pasture) Pastures provide very little or no feed considering the time of year. Poor - Heavy loss of yield potential due to excessive soil moisture, drought, disease, etc. (For pasture) Pastures are providing only marginal feed considering the time of year. Fair - Less than normal crop conditions. Yield loss is a possibility, but the extent is unknown. (For pasture) Pastures are providing generally adequate feed but still less than normal for the time of year. Good - Yield prospects are normal or better. Moisture levels are adequate with minimal disease and insect damage. (For pasture) Pastures are providing adequate feed supplies for the time of year. Excellent - Yield prospects are above normal and crops are experiencing little, if any, stress. (For pasture) Pastures supplying feed in excess of normally expected for the time of year. Crop conditions are typically asked until the state average reaches >50% harvested (excluding Pasture and Hay conditions)

Condition Reference Livestock Conditions Categories are defined as follows (equal to 100%): Very Poor - General health of animals is very poor; extremely malnourished, excessive disease and/or pest problems, highly stressed, etc. Poor - General health of animals is poor; malnourished, high disease and/or pest problems, etc. Fair - Health of the animal is fairly good; adequately nourished with above normal disease or pest problems, etc. Good - Animals in good health; well nourished, disease and pest problems below normal and minimally stressed, etc. Excellent - Health of animals is excellent; no signs of disease or pests and virtually stress-free.

Hay and Other Roughage Supply Condition Reference Hay and Other Roughage Supply Categories are defined as follows (equal to 100%): Very Short - Feeders do not have the supplies that are needed to last the remainder of the feeding season, and will not be able to obtain those supplies. Short - Feeders probably do not have the supplies that are needed for the remainder of the feeding season, and will have trouble obtaining those supplies from either hay growers or hay dealers. Adequate - Feeders have enough hay to last the remainder of the feeding season, or the feeders will have no problem obtaining the supplies needed. Surplus - Feeders have more than enough hay on hand to last the remainder of the feeding season, or dealers and growers will have problems disposing of all of the excess hay that they have on hand.