EXTRAPOLATE Ex-ante tool for ranking policy alternatives Uganda Dairy Workshop 6 December 2005 Kampala, Uganda

Overview The issue, in context Policy analysis - EXTRAPOLATE Stakeholders, constraints and outcomes Policy issues Using EXTRAPOLATE for policy analysis The optimal combination of policy interventions Impact

The issue, in context 1993 Dairy Master Plan Liberalize milk marketing Creation of a DDA Privatize the Dairy Corporation Need for comprehensive dairy policy to guide sector Request from MAAIF & PMA Secretariat for help develop a dairy policy

The challenge to PPLPI To ensure that smallholders’ constraints are addressed policies based on equity, rather than just on profitability To ensure that marginalized groups are represented addressing the needs of the informal sector

The process Broad stakeholder network (Govt; NGOs, producers and traders associations; private sector; NARS ...... Three stakeholder workshops (EXTRAPOLATE) Dairy policy task force (MAAIF; PMA Secretariat; DDA; UBOS; NAGRC) TCP Proposal to develop a policy Supporting studies: Analysis of livestock sector policy Political economy of the livestock sector poverty mapping (UBOS) GIS layers (collaboration with ILRI)

Policy analysis Analyse the effects of existing policies on different groups of producers and consumers Predict the impact of changing institutional and market environments on existing policy outcomes Predict the impact of policy changes on different groups of livestock producers and consumers

Policy analysis Analyse the effects of existing policies on different groups of producers and consumers Predict the impact of changing institutional and market environments on existing policy outcomes Predict the impact of policy changes on different groups of livestock producers and consumers

Model for pro-poor policy analysis Actual beneficiaries Groups of potential beneficiaries Constraints Opportunity Policy change Key Stakeholders Trade-offs Constraints

EXTRAPOLATE

EXTRAPOLATE: Stakeholders

EXTRAPOLATE: Constraints

EXTRAPOLATE: C → S s1 s2 s3 Score: 1-9 c1 8 5 c2 c3

EXTRAPOLATE: Outcomes Outcomes are things that can be quantified that contribute to the livelihood status of the stakeholders

EXTRAPOLATE: O → S s1 s2 s3 o1 o2 o3

EXTRAPOLATE: C → O o1 o2 o3 c1 c2 c3

EXTRAPOLATE: Current situation

EXTRAPOLATE: Policy changes

EXTRAPOLATE: P → C c1 c2 c3 p1 p2 p3

EXTRAPOLATE s1 s2 s3 c1 c2 c3 c1 c2 c3 o1 o2 o3 s1 s2 s3 p1 c1 o1 p2

EXTRAPOLATE s1 s2 s3 c1 c2 c3 c1 c2 c3 o1 o2 o3 s1 s2 s3 p1 c1 o1 p2

Stakeholder analysis - commodity chain Informal Formal Source: ILRI 2003

Stakeholder groups Smallholder intensive (4) Smallholder extensive (2) 1-10 milking animals. Grade, including peri-urban Smallholder extensive (2) 1-10 milking animals. Indigenous, low input Mediumholder intensive (7) 11-30 milking animals. Grade & exotic Mediumholder extensive (4) 11-30 milking animals. Indigenous, low input. Large-scale producers (9) > 30 milking animals. Grade & indigenous

Stakeholder groups Pastoralist (3) Agro-pastoralist (6) > 30 milking animals. Cattle on the move Agro-pastoralist (6) > 30 milking animals. Semi-settled with crops Informal traders (5) Deals in raw unpackaged milk Formal traders (8) Deals in processed & packaged milk Informal small processor (6) Informal – small

Stakeholder groups Formal small processor (7) Large processors and exporters (10) (definition) low-income rural consumer (1) low income (definition) – rural low-income urban consumer (1) low income (definition) – urban High income consumer (9)

Constraints Production and processing Consumption Knowledge and skills Access to fixed inputs Cost and availability of variable inputs Animal health and nutrition Low-yielding cattle breeds Consumption Poor quality of milk and dairy products Institutional constraints Low demand Market access Quality control Insecurity Other constraints Healthy labour force

Outcomes Increased production and sales Increased profit margins Increased security of livestock assets Improved nutritional status Increased employment opportunities Reduced environmental degradation

Policy issues Promote genetic improvement Strengthen delivery of veterinary services Provide appropriate extension services Improved market infrastructure and information Ensure quality control along the chain Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market Promote efficiency in the input supply system Increased access to credit facilities

EXTRAPOLATE – model diagram

EXTRAPOLATE – model elements

EXTRAPOLATE – model linkages

EXTRAPOLATE – model summaries

EXTRAPOLATE – model summaries

EXTRAPOLATE – analysis tools

EXTRAPOLATE – analysis tools Wealthy producers/processors/consumers Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists Small processors & traders Poor consumers

Promote genetic improvement Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists

Strengthen vet service delivery

Provide appropriate extension services

Improve market infrastructure and info

Enforce quality control

Promote consumption

Improved access to inputs

Increase access to credit

Optimal combination of policies

Key elements of a pro-poor policy Promote genetic improvement Strengthen delivery of veterinary services Provide appropriate extension services Improved market infrastructure and information Ensure quality control along the chain Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market Promote efficiency in the input supply system Increased access to credit facilities

Key elements of a pro-poor policy This does NOT mean that genetic improvement and standards/regulation should be discouraged or dropped from the policy document – rather that when these broad policy outcomes are disaggregated into their component parts (laws, strategies, institutions etc.) great care needs to be taken to ensure that the poorer producers are not disadvantaged, and that their needs are also addressed.

Impact Already Expected more analytical approach to policy development broader participation of stakeholders in the policy process heightened awareness among stakeholders of how their constraints can be addressed by policy and institutional change Expected A suite of policies, and supporting legislation and institutional change, that address the needs of smallholder dairy producers and processors, and poor consumers Increased capacity within the livestock sector to analyse and formulate policies, and tools available to assist with this

EXTRAPOLATE: Field development Focus country Topic Partners Uganda Dairy MAAIF; DDA; PMA; other stakeholders Senegal Small ruminants PAPEL; DLS; herders organisations; private vets Vietnam Pigs Hanoi Ag. Univ; DOAg.; GSO; NIAH; VSF India (AP) NRMPA; SBA; AHDept; NGOs Peru Camelids CARE; CONACS; Min of Ag.; Planning Office