Metrics Definition Task Force Carl Linvill, Chair—MDTF Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Overview 20 year scenario considerations - Review Key updates for 2026 – DWG Other updates to data pending or needed? Key assumptions for this cycle – discussion. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

20 year scenario considerations Loads and load modifications Fuel and Carbon Technology costs Tax and policy assumptions Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Load Adjustments Adjustments shown are relative to 2034 Reference Case Parameter Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Net Load Growth (-0.4%) + 0.4% Incremental EE/DSM (21%) load reduction (11%) load reduction Incremental Electrification + 160 TWh (+13% relative to RC) + 50 TWh (+5% relative to RC) DG Adjustment TBD Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Highlights—Fuel and Carbon Costs Reference Case carbon cost determined by Data Work Group MDTF recommendations for Scenarios: Natural gas price to be determined 2014 Reference Case Value Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 $58.00 $100.00 $0.00 $75.00 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Highlights—Technology Capital Costs Solar PV Cost Reductions Relative to Present Day 21% 58% No change from Reference Case 21% Significantly lower costs than Reference Case 21% 53% Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Highlights—Technology Capital Costs Solar Thermal Cost Reductions Relative to Present Day 10% 40% Less cost reduction than Reference Case 25% Greater cost reductions than Reference Case 10% 30% Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Highlights—Technology Capital Costs IGCC w/ CCS Capital Cost by Scenario ($/kW) Technology breakthrough $8,200 $4,800 $8,200 No change from Reference Case $8,200 $8,200 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Highlights—Technology Capital Costs Wind Cost Reductions Relative to Present Day Largest cost reduction 9% 29% No change from Reference Case 9% 9% 24% Significant cost reduction—but less than S2 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Highlights—Technology Capital Costs Geothermal Cost Reductions Relative to Present Day 0% 10% No change from Reference Case 0% Greater cost reductions than Reference Case 0% 10% Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Highlights—Technology Capital Costs Cost of 8 Hour Battery by Scenario $4,500/kW $1,200/kW No change from Reference Case $4500 Greater cost reductions than Reference Case $4,500/kW $2,000/kW Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Tax Credits Production Tax Credits: currently applicable to qualifying projects started by 12/31/2014 for the first 10 years of operation Technology Reference Case Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Biomass $23 through 2014 $23 through 2034 Biogas $11 through 2014 $11 through 2034 Geothermal Hydro Wind Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Investment Tax Credits Technology Reference Case Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 CHP 10% through 2016 10% through 2034 Geothermal Solar 30% through 2016 30% through 2034 Wind Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Renewable Goals Parameter Reference Case Scenario 1 Scenario 2 State RPS Per DSIRE Data Base Values in DSIRE Data Base increased by 50% Values in DSIRE Data Base reduced by 50% Federal RPS 15% minimum RPS In-State RPS Requirement No in-state preference Current in-state preference applied to current requirements No in-state preference for incremental requirements Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Key DWG Updates The following slides are taken from Jamie’s TAS presentation to give a flavor of updates. For details, tune into Jamie’s presentation Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Other updates Ask the audience: What other updates planned by DWG? What other updates needed by SWG? What other updates should be considered – ALL? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Key assumption this cycle - discussion What are the key assumptions for this cycle? Further consideration of 2034 case assumptions in light of 2034 reference case results? Use of what we are learning from 2026 common case? Use of what we are learning from 2026 study cases? Other key assumptions that need a fresh look? en Western Electricity Coordinating Council