A Little Bit about “CLIMATE CHANGE” Dr. Ron Lembke

A Scary "Recent" Movie

This is Not New Frank Capra, 1958

Sun sends Infrared energy to the Earth

CO2 collects in Troposphere Ozone O3 layer – absorbs ultraviolet radiation from sun

Van Allen Radiation Belts Magnetic field of Earth creates radiation belts. These protect us from particles flying at Earth via solar wind (stream of ionized gases at 400 km/sec)

The Evidence

Atmospheric CO2 ppm Mauna Loa Observatory 24% increase in 50 years Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Graph: Ron Lembke, 1/12/2010

Solar Activity?

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm

The Theory

CO2 equivalents, aka CO2e How does the global warming potential (GWP) of a gas compare to CO2 CO2, by definition has GWP = 1.0 IPCC AR4 p. 212 SF6 - 8,000 tons produced per year 6,000 in electrical industry, inert gas for casting magnesium Inert filling for insulated glazing windows 0.2% of GHG emissions Gas Lifetime (years) GWP 20yrs GWP 100 yrs GWP 500 yrs Methane 12 72 25 7.6 Nitrous Oxide 114 289 298 153 HFC-23 270 12000 14,800 12,200 HFC-134a 14 3,830 1,430 435 Sulfur hexafluoride 3,200 16,300 22,800 32,600

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change United Nations Environmental Programme World Meteorological Organization 1988 mission: assess risks and impacts of climate change Comprehensive, open, objective, transparent, scientific understanding of human-caused climate change Assessment reports: 1990, 92, 95, 01, 07 Over 90% of change in temps caused by humans 2500 scientific expert reviewers, 800 authors

How Much Agreement? Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences 1,372 Climate Researchers’ publication and citation data 97-98% most actively publishing support tenets of ACC outlined by IPCC scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers

The Earth’s Rotation CO2 Milankovich Cycles (pp 117-8): 280 ppm for human history Last 250 years up to 384 ppm – where we are now Milankovich Cycles (pp 117-8): Earth’s orbit not circular, 100,000 year cycle Tilted axis shifts: 40,000 year cycle Plane of orbit relative to sun: 21,000 year cycle Seems unlikely

So What’s Expected to Happen?

Climate Models We’re at 384 ppm 450 ppm would be 2°C increase 550 ppm would lead to 3° C increase Used to be target Pests not killed by freezes Ice sheets melting faster than predicted Oceans more acidic than thought China’s growing faster than expected 350? Really hard

Global Weirding Higher temperatures increase evaporation Atlanta Water shortage? Why more than used to? Montana: Elk season had to be moved No trout in the streams Snowcaps in August gone Higher temperatures increase evaporation Soils drying out More water in the atmosphere, has to come down Means when it rains, it pours, more huge downpours Changing wind patterns Search “cities hardest hit by climate change evaporation” Nevada came up first: http://www.cier.umd.edu/climateadaptation/Climate%20change--NEVADA.pdf

Cedar River broke record by 6 feet

Public Opinion In the US, it’s a political issue, so there must be two sides?

One Politician “If ninety-eight doctors say my son is ill and needs medication, and two say, “No, he doesn’t, he is fine,” I will go with the ninety- eight. It’s common sense – same with global warming. We go with the majority, the large majority.” Arnold Schwartzeneger Quoted in Thomas Friedman, (2009)“Hot Flat, and Crowded,” pp. 178-9.

Rupert Murdoch Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inaction. We must transform the way we use energy, and of course not only because of climate change... When I look around the world today, I see continued dependence on oil from vulnerable regions... and oil money going to leaders of countries hostile to us. Then there's accelerating development in China, India and other developing economies that are reliant on fossil fuels.

Rupert Murdoch News Corp. owns Fox. “Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats” and that “We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can’t afford the risk of inaction.” Rupert Murdoch, May 9, 2007 James Murdoch, heir apparent “Thanks to friendships with Al Gore and Bill Clinton, he has developed deep green instincts,” London Telegraph Wife Kathryn Hufschmid works for Clinton Climate Initiative

Who said it? Yes, Glenn Beck Yes, I think the globe has warmed a bit! Approximately 0.74 degree Celsius (+/- 0.18 degree) in the past 100 years. Yes, I think that man might be responsible for some part of that warming, although I’m not 100 percent convinced of how much The cost of generating power from wind has dropped by 60 percent since 1990, and power from the first solar cells in satellites is now 98.7 cheaper than when it was introduced. These technologies will be adopted by the world when - and only when-- they make economic sense, not when we have to depend on countries like Russia and China to be virtuous. Sure, our government can help in the form of tax breaks and incentives, but capitalism is already well on its way to solving this problem itself.

83% of Americans say world is warming 71% of those think it’s caused partly or mostly by humans 75% said it was warming last year Skeptics more certain they’re right From 35% to 53% 15% of voters say it is their primary concern

A Hoax Global warming, as a man-made and highly threatening phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration, at worst an utter “hoax.” Over half of House Republicans Three-quarters of Senate Republicans “Hoax” James Inhofe, ranking Republican on Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Source: NYT “Fact-Free Science,” Judith Warner, 1/25/11

How will anything happen?