Melbourne Making the transition from oil dependency to community resilience Presented by Graham Truscott and Sarah Spencer Melbourne Area Transition

What we will do in the next 90 minutes… 1. Explore: - resource depletion - peak oil - peak oil - climate change - climate change 2. Discuss the implications for this area 3. Encourage you to support Melbourne Area Transition initiatives and energise this community

Its nice here. Were OK. Big economic, political, environmental issues will never affect us much… ….will they ?

What are these guys sitting on ? What is the date ? Lets explore the issues… (Its copper ore in the 1890s)

Bingham Canyon Mine, Utah This is where we mine copper ore today - Note the trucks…

What do you think? Global resource depletion will severely affect me, my family and Melbourne within the next few years Global resource depletion and supply issues will never significantly affect me, my family or Melbourne

Climate change If Carbon dioxide was visible… The sky would have changed colour in the past thirty years….

Climate change – feedbacks kicking in… Upsala Glacier, Argentina …are so obvious that legislation at international and national level aims to solve the problem The black line shows its actually much worse than the predictions.

What do we use oil for ? Transition Training 2009

Oil Can you think of: 1. Any aspect of life in Melbourne today that is not dependent on oil. 2. Every aspect of everyday life in Melbourne that was dependent on oil in 1860 or 1910.

Ready availability of cheap oil has significantly changed Melbourne… In 1860 or 1910 personal transport was limited. Today almost every household has a car and foreign holidays are commonplace… In 1860 or 1910 the majority of residents lived and worked within walking distance of their homes. Today, some residents commute across the world… In 1860 or 1910 most of Melbournes food and daily needs would have come from within ten miles. And today…?

In 1860 Melbourne was robust - 3,500 acres with all kinds of industry of industry - produced its own food - educated its own children - brewed its own beer - made its own clothes - built its own houses with local materials local materials

Oil has given us the equivalent of seven league boots – enabling every aspect our modern lives… So what makes us different from 1860 ?

But the result is our fossil fuel addiction The developed world gets about 80% of its energy from fossil fuels (oil is ancient sunlight). 95% of food consumed in the UK – and therefore also in Melbourne - is dependent on fossil fuels for fertiliser, pesticides, processing, packaging and transport.

And its not sustainable… Climate Change End of Cheap Energy Security

End of cheap energy: Peak oil Dr M. King Hubbert, Shell Oil geologist According to the International Energy Agency World oil production has already peaked – so we have used more oil than there is left in the ground

Individual countries in decline UK Discovery peaked 1974 Production peaked 1999 Source: Dr Campbell, ASPO Egypt Discovery peaked 1963 Production peaked 1993

Other regions in decline Indonesia Discovery peaked 1945 Production peaked 1977 Source: Dr Campbell, ASPO Russia Discovery peaked 1960 Production peaked 1987

64 countries have peaked…. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009

The major oil companies are also declining… Chevron peak production was in 2002 Royal Dutch Shell in 2003 Total in 2004 BP in 2005 ExxonMobil in 2006 And now (Nov 2010) the IEA says the world passed peak oil production in 2006…

Growing energy shortfall…as production declines… 45 mb/d deficit even if demand remains linear 2010

Near-term shocks and crises on the energy descent… Oil price began rising in 2003/4

Replacing conventional oil There isn't anything conceivable that could replace conventional oil, in the same quantity and energy density: We can't mine oil sands in sufficient quantity because there isn't enough water to process them. We can't grow bio-fuels because there would be no land left to grow food. Solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal don't yield enough energy. Hydrogen (from water) takes more energy to make than it can yield. Coal has massive climate change implications and supply will peak soon too. Nuclear too little too late and is a derivative of oil. Source: Miller, BP Exploration UK, Jan 2004

Energy security Where will Britain get its energy? From Russia with love ? Invade an oil rich country ? Cosy up to dictatorships ?

The economic overlay In unit of energy extracted 100 units of oil. Today 1 unit of energy extracts only 5 units of oil. When the ratio reaches 1:1 it will no longer be worth extracting. Day of reckoning for massive global financial debt has only been postponed and deepened by printing money…

The economic overlay We have borrowed from our own future - economically and environmentally. We will have to manage with much less oil - and less wealth Many people have a sense of entitlement: less and austerity do not go down well:

Initial symptoms of Peak Oil awareness… Denial A sense of bewilderment FearDepression Outbreaks of nihilism Irrational grasping at unfeasible solutions

Cultural visions Visions of a future without cheap oil tend to fall into two camps: Techno-Utopia Something wonderful will happen and well discover an everlasting source of energy. Or Armageddon Or Armageddon A mad dash by nations to secure resources. A mad dash by nations to secure resources. Wars. Pestilence. Wars. Pestilence. Economic collapse Economic collapse Climate catastrophe Climate catastrophe

Adapted from D. Lerch, Post Carbon Institute

So what will happen here … as energy becomes scarce…? Transport and land use will change Energy consumption will change The community – where it works and plays - will change Changes will be driven by near–term shocks… …but we can begin to reduce our vulnerability NOW !

Layers of necessary action….. Global Protocols CO2 quotas (Contraction and Convergenc e) Kyoto and new international agreements National - rationing - carbon caps Community Transition towns, cities, villages, Personal Reassessment, Reconnection and Responsibility

What future do you imagine ? What future do you imagine ? Continued mass consumerism ? Ready availability of everything you have today, and more… …for ever ? Oil price spikes and crises – affecting everything ? One car per street ? Solar panels on every roof ? Where will our food come from ?

Communities are building resilience to the problems right NOW…eg, Ashby-de-La Zouch (Ashby 2020) Bristol City (Peak Oil report, food mapping, 2020 goal) Totnes (Energy Descent Action Plan) Somerset County Council (Resolution and Peak oil training for all staff) Ashton Hayes, Cheshire - see their award winning film

What might local resilience look like ? Food Rapid expansion of local food production Reduction of fossil fuel use in the food system, Local food networks bringing producers and consumers together.Education Smaller local schools (secondary school back in Melbourne ?)Smaller local schools (secondary school back in Melbourne ?) Emphasis on vocational subjects, building, cooking, horticulture ?Emphasis on vocational subjects, building, cooking, horticulture ? Healthcare Local healthcare centres and the local production of medicines ?

Oil-resilient transport Locally produced, renewable fuels (such as biogas or renewable electricity) in public transport ? Fewer people able to afford private cars ? Shift from private to public transport, share-schemes, cycling and walking. Expansion of existing programmes – especially where low cost

Community supported agriculture eg, Whetstone, Leicestershire Growing food in gardens and common land (eg school grounds – like Silverhill School, Mickleover ) Reducing food vulnerability ?

So what will happen here ? Melbourne people anticipate the possible future scenarios… We take responsibility for the transition to a low-carbon, energy- constrained near future ? We cooperate with our neighbours ? We reduce our vulnerability and build our resilience to shocks ? We can control our own future…

Melbourne Area Transition Local residents taking responsibility and urgent action at the community level NOW ! Four major projects already underway (November 2010): Parish Church solar PV Community woodland on Forestry Commission land Low Carbon Melbourne (with SDDC) Melbourne School demonstration food forest proposal

Church 10 kW PV project Panels installed at Sleaford Church – also Grade 1 listed Panels will be anchored to south facing nave and aisle roofs – invisible from below. A monitor screen in the church will give real time power-generation data. Installation will last 25 years and be totally reversible.

Church 10 kW PV project Church 10 kW PV project The PV panels will not affect the scenic splendour of the church, but will be a great example of commitment to a better future…

Community woodland project Community woodland project 19 hectares of Forestry Commission land on edge of Robin Wood

Community woodland project Community woodland project 19 hectares of Forestry Commission land on edge of Robin Wood Biomass coppice (enough to power Melbourne Leisure Centre ?) Demonstration orchard/food forest Multi-purpose planting Green burials ? Community training and teaching Increased amenity, wildlife diversity/CO2 offset A growing community resource as the transition takes place...

Low carbon Melbourne project Low carbon Melbourne project Professional free home energy surveys In conjunction with South Derbyshire District Council Free or very low cost insulation for many households Reduces carbon emissions, home running costs Keeps you warmer ! Energy information gadgets and giveaways!

Melbourne Junior School Melbourne Junior School Proposal for a demonstration food forest The start of a dialogue about oil dependency Hoping to reach parents as well - before oil shortages do… Silver Hill School, Mickleover. Food forest garden under construction (Spring 2010)

Food forest concept Food forest concept Mimics a natural forest ecosystem, except that the species chosen are all usable by humans for food and other purposes (eg, building materials, nitrogen fixing or medicines).

What is Transition? Began 5 years ago – rapidly growing independent grass-roots movement Building resilience and sustainability through stronger communities and local action – not a protest march… Vision of a low carbon, energy-constrained future less reliant on fossil fuels Positive approach to deliver happier, healthier, safer places to live – seeing crises as opportunities

Transition groups and communities England 300+ Scotland 25 Wales 32 Northern Ireland 3 Ireland 13 Australia 27 Argentina 1 Belgium 1 Canada 14 Chile 1 France 2 Holland 1 Israel 1 Italy 4 Mexico 1 Netherlands 1 New Zealand 34 South Africa 2 Spain 6 Sweden 4 Switzerland 1 United States 55

Transition principles… Sustainability - Life with less energy is inevitable so we help others to become more sustainable rather than be taken by surprise… Resilience – Building resilience to cope with energy and economic shocks… Empowerment – Helping take responsibility and encouraging everyone to act now Creativity – Encouraging communities to grow more enriching, satisfying and connected

Melbourne has the skills.. Community spirit ? still here Tradition of food production ? still here High tech skills and expertise ? may be greater than in 1860 ? Resourcefulness ? surely yes ? Creativity ? surely yes ? Willingness/empowerment ? what do you think…?

John Joseph Briggs Melbourne resident and diarist We have endeavoured in our day and generation to leave the world better than we found it… I hope those who come after us will strive to accomplish the same object…

A more resilient Melbourne – and a better community future….isnt it up to us, the people of Melbourne ?