Understanding the impacts of urban public transportation infrastructure: towards a diversified approach Jędrzej Gadzińskia Adam Radzimskia,b a Adam Mickiewicz University, Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, ul. Dzięgielowa 27, 61-680 Poznań, Poland b Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences Unit, Viale Francesco Crispi 7, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy

The context: Why measuring the impacts of public transport infrastructure is so important these days?

car walk In Poland (2004-2013): 44 projects related to tram infrastructure value: almost 3 billion EUR level of EU financing: 46% Public transport remains an important means of transport in urban areas and in some cities its role is increasing There is a growing passenger transport demand in urban areas - consequences of this situation: congestion, the need for new infrastructural investments, etc. Investments in urban public transportation belong to the high- ranking priorities of the transportation policy in the EU Central and Eastern European countries have experienced a spectacular improvement in transport infrastructure investment in the last decade (partly thanks to EU funds) public transport bike Sweden United Kingdom Netherlands Poland Germany Central Europe France Italy Spain

What are the potential impacts of public transport infrastructure?

the indirect/wider impacts – broader socio-economic consequences Kinds of impacts: the direct impacts – short-term consequences of the reorganisation of public transport network the indirect/wider impacts – broader socio-economic consequences Recent studies – special attention is being paid to the indirect effects Investment in public transport infrastructure Activity opportunities in surrounding, neighbourhood quality The level of accessibility (of PT and activities) Individual characteristics (social position, life stage) Daily mobility pattern of individuals Property market (prices, availability of land) Location decision of individuals Source: own compilation based on the ideas of Scheiner (2006) and Banister and Thurstain-Goodwin (2011)

Could Poznań be a laboratory of public transport investment? Study area: Could Poznań be a laboratory of public transport investment?

540.000 inhabitants, 20 daily tram lines, 60 daily bus lines tram tracks – 82 km first light urban rail project in post- socialist Poland – PST line Modal split (2013): public transport – 43% cars – 40% walking – 13% cycling – 4% In the years 2004-2013 – 5 projects (cofinanced by EU funds) on tram infrastructure extension or modernisation

PIĄTKOWO - PST (rapid tram) - multifamily housing (70s-90s) NARAMOWICE - planned rapid (?) tram line - multifamily housing (90s-present) WINOGRADY - PST (rapid tram) and traditional tram lines - multifamily housing (60s-80s) WINIARY - PST (rapid tram) and traditional tram lines - multifamily housing (60s-80s) RATAJE - traditional tram lines - multifamily housing (60s-80s)

Accessibility – tram stops

Accessibility – public transport stops

Accessibility – city centre by public transport

What are the results of our investigations?

Respondents - inhabitants living in proximity to the nearest PST stop: I. What have we done already? Research question: What are effects of the PST line in terms of travel behaviours, housing choices and satisfaction, and apartment prices? Area: Winogrady district (multi-family housing) Data sources: Surveys (sample of nearly 300 households) - to identify travel behaviours of individuals, their housing satisfaction and to understand their housing choices Data on real estate transactions (over 1,400 transactions) – to study price effects of the proximity to the fast tram, controlling for other variables Respondents - inhabitants living in proximity to the nearest PST stop: <1000 m >1000 m are using trams more often (57% at least several times a week; difference: 15%) - are using cars more often (58% at least several times a week; difference: 14%) are more satisfied with location of PT stops (97%; difference: 14%) - are less satisfied with their place of residence (88%; difference: 10%) - are buying more season tickets (0.45 per person; difference: 16%) and more of them are renting flats (29%; difference: 12%) - would pay more for an apartment with better accessibility of parking places (34%; difference: 11%)

Conclusions: Respondents positively evaluate the fast tram, but its importance is only partly confirmed by price effects As the price effects seem to increase with increasing distance from the city centre (see figure), we decided to look for evidence from places where the fast tram may offer more actual time savings In terms of policy implications: it is not advisable to consider the price effects as the sole (or primary) justification for public infrastructure projects. Gadziński, J., & Radzimski, A. (2015). The first rapid tram line in Poland: How has it affected travel behaviours, housing choices and satisfaction, and apartment prices? Journal of Transport Geography, 54, 451-463.

II. What are we doing now? Research question: How to analyse and measure comprehensively the impacts of urban public transportation infrastructure? We build upon findings from previous research and extend them by adding new contexts, new data sources and new methodological approaches Research areas: Areas accessible by the fast tram (Piątkowo & Winiary), areas accessible by the regular tram (Rataje), areas with plans for tram infrastructure (Naramowice) Data sources: Household surveys GPS-based mobile application Data on real estate transactions Internet announcements – apartments for rent

Household survey Research areas: Piątkowo & Winiary, Rataje (+Naramowice in progress) Sample size: 600 interviews (+400 in progress) Results: respondents from areas close to the fast tram declared higher overall satisfaction in regard to the place of residence They also declared much higher level of satisfaction with the accessibility of trams, and the willingness to pay more for an apartment located close to the fast tram

How satisfied are you with the accessibility of…

GPS-based mobile application Aim – to identify travel behaviours of individuals Technical information: phones with Android system and GPS module, after installation – short questionnaire (age, sex, household characteristics, etc.), saving current location – every 30 sec. Sample size (assumption): 200 users x 7 days = 1400 daily tracks Results: ?

Analysis of price effects based on real estate transactions Research areas: Piątkowo & Naramowice (preliminary findings), Rataje (data available) Approximately 1,900 transactions for Piątkowo and 1,500 transactions for Naramowice Primary & secondary market Perdiod covered: 2012-2015 PIĄTKOWO NARAMOWICE

Preliminary findings for Piątkowo suggest a significant relationship between the accessibility of the PST and apartment prices One minute walking time to the PST stop resulted in about 0,5% change in apartment prices Price effects were somewhat stronger in the case of new dwellings

A look at the rental market Research question: what is the relationship between rental prices and the location of apartments, particularly the accessibility of the fast tram? Background/justification: survey results suggested that many rental apartments were located close to the fast tram Pilot study: September 2016 118 rent announcements from Piątkowo and Naramowice Results: apartments in Piątkowo had a 10% higher rental price, controlling for other variables (age, size, standard and other). The difference in prices, or a part of it, could be attributed to the proximity to the fast tram

III. What are the plans for the future? Expanding the analysis also taking into account: other types of housing areas, suburban areas, other types of transport infrastructure, other cities.

Initial conclusions: We believe that the importance of the context (national, regional and local) for understanding the impacts of infrastructure projects, especially urban transportation systems, should be more emphasized. Price effects are an important source of information about the impacts of transportation projects, but they should be confronted with other evidence (travel behaviours, household satisfaction etc.). In our research we employ a differentiated approach, which combines analysis of travel behaviours, price effects and household surveys. In our view, such an approach allows to comprehend the effects of public transportation projects in a more comprehensive and context-dependent way.