Using Past Weather Events to Predict Future Behavior 9/15/2018 8:54 AM Using Past Weather Events to Predict Future Behavior Mark A. Fox WCM (Weird Chronological Manipulator) NWS Dallas/Fort Worth © 2007 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries. The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

“Since when can weathermen predict the weather, let alone the future” – Marty McFly Have tons of past data Get everyone together in Integrated Warning Teams Use data to play “What if” scenarios. Data is real, time is not

Predict Future Behavior? More Like Evaluate Behaviors Initial reactions for outlooks & forecast information Complacency Readiness and adaptation Escalation Triggers Able to do this when you know the outcome, but they don’t

If you’re going to build a time machine, you might as well do it in style GIS to the rescue SPC shape files / kmz / GR software…etc. Realistic looking “now” Used at North Texas IWT in Spring 2015

Methodology Determine what you want to explore Facilitate discussion that stays on topic Follow up with what resonates with the group.

Methodology TSTMS Marginal Slight

Methodology What kind of day do you expect in North Texas ? Asked Broadcasters – Anything additional planned for the day? Asked Emergency Management – Anything additional planned for the day? Asked Both: What would make you change your plans?

North Texas IWT Responses “Scattered Showers” “Might have a thunderstorm, probably won’t” “Normal Day” “Not a big deal” “Routine” “Some hail. No tornadoes” “Will any of them have lightning?”

Our Response When the atmosphere hits 3.21 kiloJoules of CAPE, you’re going to see some serious…

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This Case? - May 5, 1995

This Case? - May 5, 1995 Supercell Thunderstorm & Squall Line Merge Occurred during an outdoor festival $2 Billion estimated damage $ 1.1 Billion insured losses 16 Flash Flood Fatalities – Dallas County

What Did We Learn ? Every day is routine, until it is not Reports, especially video, is critical to relaying the urgency of the situation No change in behavior until 2.75” hail mentioned If this happened today, our IWT said they would be looking first (sometimes solely) at NWSChat for additional information and impacts Our IWT was slow to identify the transition to flash flooding NWS Staff meeting discussed the need to remain proactive in the identification of threats*

How Are We Moving Forward? Pre-event information focused on confidence and possible impacts IWT partner feedback Confidence >> What Show relative risks Go beyond the colors Dials and arrows resonated with the IWT when communicating pre event information…now a routine inclusion

How Are We Moving Forward? Asking for brutally frank feedback after each event, from the members of the IWT Adjust, based on feedback Seek reports, and share everything in NWSChat. Just like the movie

Use The Past … Mark Fox WCM – WFO FWD Mark.fox@noaa.gov