This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st 2012 at the 20th Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference in Darwin, Australia. The paper that corresponds to this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik

Photo: Deirdre McElligott The relative importance of reproduction & survival for population viability: a case study of two dolphin populations OLIVER MANLIK, Jane McDonald, Janet Mann, Holly Smith, Lars Bejder, Michael Krützen, Richard Connor, Michael Heithaus & William Sherwin This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik Photo: Deirdre McElligott

Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 Vital Rates Methods: 1.) Determine & compare vital rates Results: Reproduction fluctuates Reproduction: Shark Bay > Bunbury Adult survival: Bunbury > Shark Bay 2 Populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.) Shark Bay: N0 = 2888 (Preen et al. 1997) 4 three-year time periods Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik Bunbury: N0 = 267 1 three-year time period

Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 Standard Model Methods: 2.) Modeling with VORTEX b) Substitution Results (Vital Rate Comparison): Reproduction: Shark Bay > Bunbury Adult survival: Bunbury > Shark Bay Methods: 1.) Determine & compare vital rates 2.) Modeling with VORTEX a) Standard Model Reproduction more important? Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 This corresponds to Figure 1 in Manlik et al. (2016) This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik Probability of Extinction: 0% Probability of Extinction: 96%

Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 Substitution Methods: 2.) Modeling with VORTEX b) Substitution Bunbury with Shark Bay Input with… Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 This corresponds to Figure 1b in Manlik et al. (2016) This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik

Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 Substitution Methods: 2.) Modeling with VORTEX b) Substitution Bunbury with Shark Bay Input with… Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 This corresponds to Figure 1b in Manlik et al. (2016) This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik Result: Substitution of reproduction largest effect Conclusion: Difference in viability due to reproduction

Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 Sensitivity Analyses …in conflict with principle: In slow-growing animal populations adult survival has a large effect, and reproduction has a small effect on growth rate. 49 species of birds (Saether & Bakke, 2000) 169 populations—various taxa (Crone, 2001) 142 populations of mammal populations (Oli & Dobson, 2003) 5 species of cetaceans (Young & Keith, 2011) “Any observed changes in growth rates of slow-growing species are likely due to changes in survival.” (Lebreton & Clobert, 1991) Survival “better fitness surrogate” than reproduction (Crone, 2003) “Management…should focus on the protection of adults” (Wielgus et al., 2008) Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik Further investigation…

Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 Sensitivity Analyses Methods: 2.) Modeling with VORTEX c) Sensitivity Analyses ∆ Reproduction ∆ Growth rate ∆ Survival 1.) Reproduction 2.) Calf Survival 3.) Juvenile Survival 4.) Adult Survival 5.) Inbreeding Standard models as baseline: Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik ∆ Growth rate

Sensitivity Analyses High: + 4% Medium: Standard value Low: - 4% Conventional analysis: Proportional High: + 4% Medium: Standard value Low: - 4% Result: Survival has large effect on growth rate Reproduction has little effect on growth rate, if… Consistent with other studies Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik Alternative analysis: Natural Variation High: + 1 SD Medium: Standard value Low: - 1 SD Result: Reproduction has large effect on growth rate Survival has little effect on growth rate, if… All possible combinations: 3 levels, 5 variables 35 = 243 X In contrast to conventional analysis

Conclusion Importance of Reproduction vs Survival: Analysis Vital Rate Comparison   Substitution Proportional Natural Variation This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik 1.) Importance of reproduction —even in slow-growing pop.; survival NOT “better fitness surrogate” (ref. Crone, 2001) 2.) Observed natural variation may be better indicator for population viability 10

Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 Acknowledgments Thanks! Questions? Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012 This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik Jane McDonald, Janet Mann, Holly Smith, Lars Bejder, Michael Krützen, Richard Connor Michael Heithaus, William Sherwin Photo: Deirdre McElligott 11

This corresponds to Figure 1 in Manlik et al. (2016) This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik

Vital Rates: Shark Bay & Bunbury Introduction  Methods  Results  Conclusion  This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik

Methods: 1.) Determine & compare demographic parameters 2.) Modeling with VORTEX 99.9b Standard Models Introduction  Methods  Results  Conclusion  This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik Substitution of vital rates and N0 Sensitivity Analyses: Proportional Variance Analysis: +/- 4% Temporal Variance Analysis: +/- 1 SDEV

Demographic Parameters Population Size & Carrying Capacity Age-class Distribution: Calves, Juveniles, Calves Sex Ratios Minimum and maximum age-class to reproduce Introduction  Methods  Results  Conclusion  Males in breeding pool (%) This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference. The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301557046_The_relative_importance_of_reproduction_and_survival_for_the_conservation_of_two_dolphin_populations Please cite: Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.2130 For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at: o.manlik@unsw.edu.au https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oliver_Manlik Shark Bay: Dispersal rate between subpopulations Vital Rates: Reproductive & Survival Rates + SDEV Shark Bay: 4 3-year time periods (1988-99; 1991-93; 1994-1996; 1997-99) Bunbury: 1 3-year time period (2007-09)